Keep an eye on what states they campaign in

National Review Online ^ | 10/14/2004 | Jim Geraghty

[Utah Girl]

KEEP AN EYE ON WHAT STATES THEY CAMPAIGN IN [10/14 11:33 PM]

This bit from tomorrow morning’s Washington Post has some grumbling among Kerry Spot readers:

Kerry and Bush strategists largely agree on the battlefield, and who is winning in each state — save Ohio. While the Bush campaign says it is winning Ohio, Kerry's internal polling shows the president losing by about five points and fading, according to two aides. Kerry will campaign in Ohio this weekend and many more times before election day.

The Kerry campaign is confident that it is winning Pennsylvania and Michigan by comfortable margins and pulling slightly ahead in Florida, a must-win state for Bush. The Kerry campaign's polling shows Bush leading in Iowa and West Virginia, and running about even in Wisconsin.

Kerry, however, has largely failed to erode the president's strong support among rural voters, especially in the upper Midwest, and among the devoutly religious, according to Greenberg. Democrats credit Bush's support among the religious and rural for small, but significant, leads in Iowa, which Gore won in 2000, and West Virginia, as well as stronger-than-expected numbers in Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Obviously, "internal polls" for each campaign always seem to contain good news for that particular campaign. I am curious which Bush campaign staffer confirmed to the Post that Bush is losing Florida. Notice none are quoted. Also note that Bush is leading Iowa (7 electoral votes from a Blue state) and if Kerry says Bush is even in Wisconsin, one can conclude he must be running strongly (there's another ten votes Kerry has to make up).

Look, you're going to get a lot of poll numbers thrown at you in the next few weeks. Relax. Deep breath. There is one factor that a campaign cannot hide, and that is where they have the candidate campaigning.

You can always raise more money, you can always run more ads, but in the end you only have one candidate for president and one candidate for vice president, and they can only attend rallies in so many states in each day.

The 2000 results were close to dead even - so Bush wants to pick up blue states while Kerry needs to pick up at least seven electoral votes in additional red states.

Note in this article: “In a break from his normal routine, Edwards traveled by bus through Iowa today, before a flight to Des Moines where he will meet Kerry for a joint rally tonight.”

Iowa - a blue state that they‘re committing both candidates to on the same day? Now, look at the recent schedule for the candidates, as I‘ve been able to piece together from news reports and the candidates‘ web sites. (I am not certain that this list is complete.)

Kerry's recent schedule:

Oct. 14 - Nevada (AARP convention), Iowa
Oct. 13 - Arizona, for debate
Oct. 13 - New Mexico
Oct. 12 - New Mexico
Oct. 11 - New Mexico
Oct. 10 - Florida, Ohio
Oct. 9 - Missouri, Florida
Oct. 8 - St. Louis, Missouri for debate
Oct. 6 - Colorado

Oct. 5 - Iowa

Edwards:

Scheduled to go to Minnesota Tuesday
Oct. 14 - Oregon, Iowa
Oct. 13 - Oregon
Oct. 12 - Colorado
Oct. 11 - Iowa
Oct. 10 - Wisconsin

Oct. 7 - New Jersey
Oct. 6 - Florida,
Oct. 5 - Ohio for debate

Bush

Heading to New Jersey Monday
Oct. 14 - Nevada
Oct. 13 - Arizona, for debate
Oct. 12 - Ohio, Colorado

Oct. 11 - New Mexico, Colorado
Oct. 10 - Minnesota
Oct. 9 - Iowa, Missouri post-debate breakfast
Oct. 8 - St. Louis, Missouri for debate
Oct. 7 - Wisconsin
Oct. 6 - Pennsylvania, Michigan
Oct. 4 - Iowa

Cheney

Oct. 14 - Pennsylvania, Florida
Oct. 13 - Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania
Oct. 12 - Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio
Oct. 11 - New Jersey
Oct. 10 - no events
Oct. 7 - Florida
Oct. 6 - Florida
Oct. 5 - Ohio for debate

If the Kerry camp is so wildly confident that they’re keeping all of the important Gore states, why are they having Kerry and Edwards spend so much time in Blue States?

That's an inordinate amount of time to spend in states that are supposed to already be in the Democratic column. Note also that two of the non-debate-site red states on that list are New Hampshire and Nevada, and neither one alone is enough to put Kerry over the top.

Would a Bush supporter prefer the President to be up more? Certainly. But look at the amount of time he and Cheney are spending in New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Jersey - all blue states where he's on the offense. Right now the Bushies are defending five states, really - Ohio, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Colorado. And obviously, neither New Hampshire or Nevada alone would put Kerry over 271, assuming he holds all the Gore states.

Right now, Kerry and Edwards are putting enormous time - a resource where he can't just raise more - into defending blue states. This could change. But for now, Kerry’s playing defense, while Bush plays offense.

Also, Kerry Spot readers in the New York area ought to pick up the New York Sun tomorrow and check the op-ed page. One of your favorite writers is analyzing why Bush’s chances are better than the polls might have you believe.

[The South Texan]

A little football analogy here for you all.


This like being in the 4th quarter in a football game with 4 minutes to go and we are winning 34-31. We (Bush) have driven down half the field with ease after a Kerry TD, running 5 yards here and a short pass play there with the defense (Kerry) not being able to stop us. Right now Bush is on Kerry's side of the field at the 45 yard line and the goal of the offense is to run as much of that 4 minutes off the clock before scoring the insurance TD.

[Dolphy]

The President put a lot on the line in 2002 by campaigning hard in places like Minnesota. I remember some of the talking heads saying they underestimated his impact and ability to rally the vote. I think they may be doing it again.

[no dems]

I'm referring to your post #7.

[varina davis]

I predict an unprecedented uprising of the religious right on election day who will vote early to re-elect Pres. Bush. Especially true in the south, but also in large part in all other areas except the northeast (and there might be some surprises even there.)

This will be a chance, at the polls, for the great and mostly unheard silent majority to voice their sentiments in favor of God, family and country.

[Utah Girl]

LOL. Good points. It is actually kind of fun to be the state with the largest margin of victory for the Republican. And in 1992, it was even better because Clinton was THIRD in the votes after Bush and Perot.

[Utah Girl]

Long time no see. :) I sure plan on voting early before I go to work. And I'm getting off work early for an election night party.

[Utah Girl]

I like your football analogy. Very good. And we're all up in the stands screaming "We had a 10 point lead, but you let them out of the bag to score a touchdown."

[gop_gene]

I will never get tired of saying that we are moving in the right direction. The MSM is in panic trying to slow down Bush because last night Kerry squandered his last chance to knock out Bush. If Bush were so unpopular as the Kerryites are saying, how come he is still ahead in most polls?

The media is being so overly blatant, more so than usual, in attempting to slant the election to Kerry, it's infuriating. If they succeed, that will be a very, very, very bad thing, for they will learn that their wayward practices work, and will become even more audacious (if that's even possible) in future elections.

And I agree with you about the debates--while it's maddening that the media wastes no time in proclaiming Kerry the winner in all three and mopping the floor with W, the president should be behind Kerry by so many points, but he's not. Are we to believe that these people thought Kerry was excellent, but still aren't voting for him? Well, perhaps that's so, for W has that "personal connection" quality. Clinton had it, so did Reagan. Kerry doesn't. I believe that's a big factor in many people being reluctant to leave him, when the MSM is screaming for them to flock to Kerry.

[The South Texan]

Exactly! Debate # 1 was Kerry's last TD, I hope.

[Steven W.]

You have the support & prayers of many, many others of us who are outside the battleground states. You will need to do all you can & more so take heart you have our deepest gratitude and appreciation for making Wisconsin a potential if not likely win for W on the march to freedom and victory in 2004 :) Thanks!

[T. Buzzard Trueblood]

Only 18 more days to Kerry's Waterloo.

From your lips to God's ear, compadre.

[Steven W.]

This is the best, most accurate & comprehensive stuff Geraghty has written in days if not weeks. Looks like Hugh's message got through and the folks at NR took their eyes off their hands wringing to take a look at what's actually going on out there and it says a lot. Recall where the candidates spent their final hours in 2000 and how that foretold the state of that election - Bush spent the day there while Gore flew in late that night, before polls opened, for a last ditch effort on the winds of their DUI smear.

[gop_gene]

The President put a lot on the line in 2002 by campaigning hard in places like Minnesota. I remember some of the talking heads saying they underestimated his impact and ability to rally the vote. I think they may be doing it again.

I remember how the pundits were spouting that this was not a very good idea, for W was putting his prestige on the line, and should the gop lose seats, it would be embarassing, a reflection upon him since he participated in the campaigns. It's good that we have over 2 weeks left before election day, W is a terrific campaigner, a natural.

[Steven W.]

"there" meaning Florida :)

[skaterboy]

I think Kerry must be having his polls done by Zogby

What is it with guys named John?

[Steven W.]

Pollsters have also noted that the three weeks before an election is CRITICAL for an incumbent & the mood that prevails often results in movement to the incumbent - the only exception being Reagan's taking extra advantage of a late debate (days before the election) and Dick Morris' recent worries to the effect that peace isn't necessarily in the president's interests. I beg to differ with that thinking and hope that positive aspects of our current world + economic situation is appreciated by the voters with a righteous realization that John Kerry will get us killed.

[skaterboy]

Tough Road if we lose Ohio?

Win WI and IA or NM problem solved

[plushaye]

I think this is true in this election. Social issues are motivating evangelicals and catholics like never before. The evidence is anecdotal but it's possible that there is a silent tidal wave building. It won't register on the polls (like the fraud) because I think it involves people who have registered previously but haven't been bothering to vote. It may just wipe out all the fraud margins. I hope this is the case anyway.

[plushaye]

"Tough Road if we lose Ohio?

Win WI and IA or NM problem solved"

I think so too.
OH = 20
WI (10) + IA (7) = 17
Do we even need the additional 3 EV's due to the extra from apportionment after 2000 in Bush states? Or add NM (5) to make up for OH loss.

[skaterboy]

Lets remember something else

REMEMBER ALL THE MONEY THE KERRY PEOPLE WERE RAISING? 30MILLION IN A MONTH OR SOME OTHER CRAP?
NEXT THING YOU KNOW THEY PULLING ADS ALL OVER TO SAVE MONEY