Keep an eye on what states they campaign in

National Review Online ^ | 10/14/2004 | Jim Geraghty

[Utah Girl]

KEEP AN EYE ON WHAT STATES THEY CAMPAIGN IN [10/14 11:33 PM]

This bit from tomorrow morning’s Washington Post has some grumbling among Kerry Spot readers:

Kerry and Bush strategists largely agree on the battlefield, and who is winning in each state — save Ohio. While the Bush campaign says it is winning Ohio, Kerry's internal polling shows the president losing by about five points and fading, according to two aides. Kerry will campaign in Ohio this weekend and many more times before election day.

The Kerry campaign is confident that it is winning Pennsylvania and Michigan by comfortable margins and pulling slightly ahead in Florida, a must-win state for Bush. The Kerry campaign's polling shows Bush leading in Iowa and West Virginia, and running about even in Wisconsin.

Kerry, however, has largely failed to erode the president's strong support among rural voters, especially in the upper Midwest, and among the devoutly religious, according to Greenberg. Democrats credit Bush's support among the religious and rural for small, but significant, leads in Iowa, which Gore won in 2000, and West Virginia, as well as stronger-than-expected numbers in Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Obviously, "internal polls" for each campaign always seem to contain good news for that particular campaign. I am curious which Bush campaign staffer confirmed to the Post that Bush is losing Florida. Notice none are quoted. Also note that Bush is leading Iowa (7 electoral votes from a Blue state) and if Kerry says Bush is even in Wisconsin, one can conclude he must be running strongly (there's another ten votes Kerry has to make up).

Look, you're going to get a lot of poll numbers thrown at you in the next few weeks. Relax. Deep breath. There is one factor that a campaign cannot hide, and that is where they have the candidate campaigning.

You can always raise more money, you can always run more ads, but in the end you only have one candidate for president and one candidate for vice president, and they can only attend rallies in so many states in each day.

The 2000 results were close to dead even - so Bush wants to pick up blue states while Kerry needs to pick up at least seven electoral votes in additional red states.

Note in this article: “In a break from his normal routine, Edwards traveled by bus through Iowa today, before a flight to Des Moines where he will meet Kerry for a joint rally tonight.”

Iowa - a blue state that they‘re committing both candidates to on the same day? Now, look at the recent schedule for the candidates, as I‘ve been able to piece together from news reports and the candidates‘ web sites. (I am not certain that this list is complete.)

Kerry's recent schedule:

Oct. 14 - Nevada (AARP convention), Iowa
Oct. 13 - Arizona, for debate
Oct. 13 - New Mexico
Oct. 12 - New Mexico
Oct. 11 - New Mexico
Oct. 10 - Florida, Ohio
Oct. 9 - Missouri, Florida
Oct. 8 - St. Louis, Missouri for debate
Oct. 6 - Colorado

Oct. 5 - Iowa

Edwards:

Scheduled to go to Minnesota Tuesday
Oct. 14 - Oregon, Iowa
Oct. 13 - Oregon
Oct. 12 - Colorado
Oct. 11 - Iowa
Oct. 10 - Wisconsin

Oct. 7 - New Jersey
Oct. 6 - Florida,
Oct. 5 - Ohio for debate

Bush

Heading to New Jersey Monday
Oct. 14 - Nevada
Oct. 13 - Arizona, for debate
Oct. 12 - Ohio, Colorado

Oct. 11 - New Mexico, Colorado
Oct. 10 - Minnesota
Oct. 9 - Iowa, Missouri post-debate breakfast
Oct. 8 - St. Louis, Missouri for debate
Oct. 7 - Wisconsin
Oct. 6 - Pennsylvania, Michigan
Oct. 4 - Iowa

Cheney

Oct. 14 - Pennsylvania, Florida
Oct. 13 - Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania
Oct. 12 - Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio
Oct. 11 - New Jersey
Oct. 10 - no events
Oct. 7 - Florida
Oct. 6 - Florida
Oct. 5 - Ohio for debate

If the Kerry camp is so wildly confident that they’re keeping all of the important Gore states, why are they having Kerry and Edwards spend so much time in Blue States?

That's an inordinate amount of time to spend in states that are supposed to already be in the Democratic column. Note also that two of the non-debate-site red states on that list are New Hampshire and Nevada, and neither one alone is enough to put Kerry over the top.

Would a Bush supporter prefer the President to be up more? Certainly. But look at the amount of time he and Cheney are spending in New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Jersey - all blue states where he's on the offense. Right now the Bushies are defending five states, really - Ohio, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Colorado. And obviously, neither New Hampshire or Nevada alone would put Kerry over 271, assuming he holds all the Gore states.

Right now, Kerry and Edwards are putting enormous time - a resource where he can't just raise more - into defending blue states. This could change. But for now, Kerry’s playing defense, while Bush plays offense.

Also, Kerry Spot readers in the New York area ought to pick up the New York Sun tomorrow and check the op-ed page. One of your favorite writers is analyzing why Bush’s chances are better than the polls might have you believe.

[republicandiva]

Thanks for the kind words and encouragement...I'll pass them along...possibly during one of many seemingly endless phone banks :^)

[Owen]

It's worse than that. They were allowed only 70 million, just like Bush, for all time after their convention. But The Dems were a month earlier. He Is Out Of Money. This is the time frame when that would occur.

He will be releasing all sorts of bizarre stories to the press from here on just to stay in the news more prominently, because He Is Out Of Ad Money.

[Fatalis]

Look, you're going to get a lot of poll numbers thrown at you in the next few weeks. Relax. Deep breath. There is one factor that a campaign cannot hide, and that is where they have the candidate campaigning.

That's the ball to keep our eyes on, but it's also important not to take deep breaths while biting one's nails.

[Owen]

>
You can always raise more money, you can always run more ads, but in the end you only have one candidate for president and one candidate for vice president, and they can only attend rallies in so many states in each day.

>

No, you can not. He is limited to 70 million and his had to stretch an extra month. They are Out Of Money and trying to hide it by pretending to be way ahead. This story was leaked and is bogus and is intended to get them in the news and coverage They Can Not Pay For.

Kerry is out of money. His ad pulls are because of that.

[Fatalis]

I certainly hope reality is better than the polls, because I see way too many Kerry signs and way too close in the polls.

When you see the Kerry signs you are, by default, seeing the silent majority, who don't want to invite vandals.

MSM polls are never as accurate as campaign internals. You'd think someone in the MSM would throw $$$ at some campaign pollsters and give them some money to spend during an election cycle and clean up in ratings, but they don't. I should have been a network exec. LOL

But the premise of the article at the top of the thread is spot on: campaign activities reflect internal polls. Kerry and Bush are largely waging this war in pink, purple, and blue states. Kerry is on the defensive.

Also consider that the third debate occured early enough in the week for talk radio to get their licks in on the spin before the Sunday shows. This debate will tally for Bush.

A huge, huge miscalculation by Karl Rove was to not insist that every debate take place on a Tuesday. Avoid Monday Night Football and give talk radio maximum time to put the English on the spin. That's how the GOP will win debates for the forseeable future.

[gop_gene]

Kerry's strategy is too talk and act optimistic and confident, but certain things they do seem to smack of desperation. The Mary Cheney incident is another good example.

But the Faith Healer Edwards whopper makes that pale in comparison.

[California Patriot]

Maybe so, but "earned" media is more effective than paid media. Kerry has all the commercials he needs ... on the dinosaur networks' regular programming. Gratis.

[dmanLA]

"I like your football analogy. Very good. And we're all up in the stands screaming "We had a 10 point lead, but you let them out of the bag to score a touchdown.""

That's what happens when you play prevent defense. Bush is now on offense which is good.

[Mister Baredog]

I would have loved to see President Bush come to Utah in 2004, but his lead is 37% here. Kerry has no chance in Utah, so we get no national campaign ads here

No ads here either but I'm in CA, a sKerry state, count your blessings, I'm afraid to put a Bush bumper sticker on my car.

[Mr. Silverback]

The Mary Cheney incident is another good example.

They took the Mary Cheney shot for one reason: To stop evangelicals from coming out. It won't work, but it shows they're scared.

Even if we assume that Kerry won the debates (he didn't) that doesn't fix his broken campaign, and I've seen no evidence that he's fixed those problems. Plus, don't forget that Hillary and Bill are on our side this time out...

[Mr. Silverback]

It won't register on the polls (like the fraud) because I think it involves people who have registered previously but haven't been bothering to vote.

And if you're one of those 4 million Evangelicals who stayed home in 2000, you won't show up in likely voter polls.

[Petronski]

Morning bump.

[Redleg Duke]

Hey, not all of us guys named "John" are like that!

[Pete'sWife]

If the Kerry campaign has reached its spending limit, how does that affect air travel?

Who picks up the tab for the plane(s)?

[guitfiddlist]

It was absolutely critical that Bush had his exceptional performance in debate 3. For those of us who watched it - we have the direct evidence of how well he did and are well-armed when the partisan and coordinating MSM crows about a Kerry victory. When they do this - two things are absolutely confirmed: A) they are blatant and overt partisans and B) they're lying POS's.

Like a used car salesman telling you a car is in mint condition when you have the CARFAX report in hand, showing it's a salvage case, you can smile in his face and tell him he's full of it.

If debate 3 had been debate 1 - we wouldn't feel so sure. Now we know the MSM game, their complete lack of truth and ethics, and if we're wise - we'll completely dismantle the bastards after the first order of business - re-electing Bush.

[T. Buzzard Trueblood]

But the Faith Healer Edwards whopper makes that pale in comparison.

Good point. Definately one of the cheapest political maneuvers I've ever seen, and again, if you really look at it, it seems desperate.

[AmishDude]

Here's what I think happens with the polls: Most polls (except Gallup, I'll get to them later) weight by party registration. They base this on voter turnout in the previous presidential election. The late-breaking DUI story depressed Republican turnout and increased Democratic turnout beyond what would be expected. It's only a point or two, but that makes a big difference in that registered Reps vote 90% for the R candidate and the same with registered Dems. Moreover, there are more R registrations now. This is, I think, why the 2002 polls were so off, particularly in Florida where I think the presence of Joe Lieberman on the ticket gave a boost to S. Florida D turnout.

About Gallup. They do not weight by registration, but all of the G. polls I've seen lately have been weekend polls commissioned by USA Today (I actually do not believe this is malicious, I just think USA Today wants a Monday story.) Weekend polls are unreliable and, if anything, lean D.

Look at the tracking polls, they will slowly tick upward as Kerry gets the focus and his self-inflicted wounds (global test, Mary Cheney) are exposed.

[Owen]

The plane is chicken feed compared to millions for an ad buy. A plane costs thousands per hour. Not hundreds of thousands.

He has to reserve money to pay his GOTV staff and he is simply out of ad money and has to be on TV anyway he can.

[Big Horn]

I would like to have Bush come to Wyoming, but I know it is a safe state for him. In my county you see no bumper stickers or signs they will just go and vote for Bush and that is for certain.