[Rasmussen] Ohio: Bush 49% Kerry 47%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | October 14, 2004

[RWR8189]

October 14, 2004--The critical battleground state of Ohio remains a Toss-Up as we enter the three weeks of Election 2004.

The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows President Bush with 49% of the vote while John Kerry has 47%. Two weeks ago, our survey found the President ahead by a single point, 48% to 47%. Four years ago, the President earned a four-point margin of victory in Ohio.

Rasmussen Reports Premium Members receive daily Tracking Poll updates on Ohio along with Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania.  Premium Members also receive weekly updates on fifteen states along with other benefits.

Fifty-three percent (54%) of Ohio voters have a favorable opinion of the President. That's up from 53% two weeks ago.

Fifty-three percent (53%) have a favorable opinion of Senator Kerry. That's up from 50% two weeks ago.

The current survey data is based upon interviews completed in the seven days prior to the third and final Presidential debate. The earlier survey data was based largely upon interviews completed before the first debate.

The President's Job Approval is currently at 50% in Ohio. That's down from 53% two weeks ago.

Ninety-three percent (93%) of Bush voters in the state say they are "certain" they will vote for the President. That's little changed from two weeks ago.

However, among Kerry voters, 89% are now that certain, Two weeks ago, just 79% are that certain.

Selected demographics and other information are available for Premium Members.

[marblehead17]

poll ping

[Patrick1]

A one point bump for Bush since the last Rasmussen poll. Strategic Vision has Bush up six.

[RWR8189]

ping

[Parley Baer]

The trend is slowly going our way. Hopefully a week from now it will be 3 points. On election day 5 points will do for me in Ohio. Parley

[skaterboy]

Stay above 50 JA

Its looking like 274 to 264 to me..maybe we can pull off WI and I like to see a couple more NV polls before im sure of them..Daly says Bush is doing better in OHIO than the polls say..I just hope the Christians turnout on Nov 2nd for the Marriage thing

[Graybeard58]

A one point bump for Bush since the last Rasmussen poll. Strategic Vision has Bush up six.

Now he is up by 2. How is that a bump?

[KJacob]

I believe the tracking polls for premium members are even better. It is a 7 day poll and last I saw it had Bush by 4.

[Jose Roberto]

Now it is up to us to get the vote out. Ohio is important because if we win it then Kerry is history. I think that OH is actually 4 points for Bush if you average Ras and SUSA. Keep the faith, we are moving in the right direction.

[wideawake]

Although the polls seem to show consistent improvement by Senator Kerry, they seem to still show that he is just wide of the mark.

Now that the debates are over, there is nothing to really boost him past the post, barring really ugly last-minute dirty tricks.

The debates were his last shot to open a lead, and he never actually did.

I think things are looking up.

BTW, a coworker from NJ who told me two months ago he was probably voting for Senator Kerry told me today, after watching the debate, that I had convinced him and that he was voting for the President.

[skaterboy]

It was one 2 weeks ago now its 2 but i guess thats not a signifcant bump

[zbigreddogz]

I think, at the end of the day, we will win Ohio. At least I sure hope so. Thank God for Ken Blackwell! He seems to be keeping Democrat BS to a bare minimum.

[Marathoner]

The trends do look a bit better. My biggest concern now is what kind of s--t Soros is gonna pull between now and Nov 2.

[chalkman]

54% have a favorable opinion of Bush, and 53 percent have a favorable opinion of Kerry.

Seems strange that there is a reasonable percentage of people that have a favorable opinion of both candidates.

[RWR8189]

What's even more striking though, is Kerry's negatives being as high as Bush's.

[KrazyEyezKillah]

I agree that Kerry missed his last chance to get his "inflection point" and change the dynamics of the race. Forget about "undecideds" breaking for the challenger. The electorate is going to go with the candidate with the "air of inevitability" and the big mo, George W. I gotta think 284 EV's is the minimum he'll get with a chance for a lot more.

[Signalman]

Strategic Vision Poll, dated 10/12 has:

Bush: 51

Kerry: 45

Undec. 4

[BenLurkin]

bttt

[gop_gene]

Although the polls seem to show consistent improvement by Senator Kerry, they seem to still show that he is just wide of the mark.

Now that the debates are over, there is nothing to really boost him past the post, barring really ugly last-minute dirty tricks.

The debates were his last shot to open a lead, and he never actually did.

I see that as being the case, also. And unless there is a "delayed" bump from this last debate for Kerry, from what I've seen, it looks like the public is still ambivalent about him and he hasn't really been able to break the race wide open. If things remain at this pace for both candidates, it's going to be trench warfare from here on in.

[finnman69]

Raz has a tracking poll for battleground states but publishes releses time to time.

He had:
Bush up 1 9/25-10/2
Bush up 3 9/12-9/18
Kerry up 2 8/1-8/26