Posted on 10/14/2004 8:47:35 AM PDT by valkyrieanne
Say goodbye to the American software programmer. Once the symbols of hope as the nation shifted from manufacturing to service jobs, programmers today are an endangered species. They face a challenge similar to that which shrank the ranks of steelworkers and autoworkers a quarter century ago: competition from foreigners.
Some experts think they'll become extinct within the next few years, forced into unemployment or new careers by a combination of offshoring of their work to India and other low-wage countries and the arrival of skilled immigrants taking their jobs.
Not everybody agrees programmers will disappear completely. But even the optimists believe that many basic programming jobs will go to foreign nations, leaving behind jobs for Americans to lead and manage software projects. The evidence is already mounting that many computer jobs are endangered, prompting concern about the future of the nation's high-tech industries.
Since the dotcom bust in 2000-2001, nearly a quarter of California technology workers have taken nontech jobs, according to a study of 1 million workers released last week by Sphere Institute, a San Francisco Bay Area public policy group. The jobs they took often paid less. Software workers were hit especially hard. Another 28% have dropped off California's job rolls altogether. They fled the state, became unemployed, or decided on self-employment.
The problem is not limited to California.
Although computer-related jobs in the United States increased by 27,000 between 2001 and 2003, about 180,000 new foreign H-1B workers in the computer area entered the nation, calculates John Miano, an expert with the Programmers Guild, a professional society. "This suggests any gain of jobs have been taken by H-1B workers," he says.
H-1B visas allow skilled foreigners to live and work in the US for up to six years. Many are able to get green cards in a first step to citizenship. Another visa, L-1, allows multinational companies to transfer workers from foreign operations into the US.
The H-1B visa has been highly controversial for years. This fiscal year, Congress set a quota of 65,000 visas, which was snapped up immediately after they became available Oct.1. Now, US business is pleading for Congress to let in more such workers.
The US Chamber of Commerce (news - web sites), for instance, wants Congress to revisit the cap "to ensure American business has access to the talent it needs to help keep our economy strong."
That rationale makes no sense to the Programmers Guild and other groups that have sprung up to resist the tech visas. Since more than 100,000 American programmers are unemployed - and many more are underemployed - the existing 65,000 quota is inexcusably high, they argue. H-1B and L-1 visas are "American worker replacement programs," says the National Hire American Citizens Society.
Further, the H-1B program, set up in 1990, is flawed, critics charge. For example, employers are not required to recruit Americans before resorting to hiring H-1Bs, says Norman Matloff, a computer science professor at the University of California, Davis.
And the requirement that employers pay H-1Bs a "prevailing wage" is useless, he adds, because the law is riddled with loopholes. Nor are even any remaining regulations enforced.
The average wage for an American programmer runs about $60,000, says John Bauman, who set up the Organization for the Rights of American Workers. Employers pay H-1Bs an average $53,000.
A programmer, Mr. Bauman was out of work for 20 months before finally taking a job with a 40% pay cut. His experience is common enough that programmers are organizing to fight in Congress against H-1B and L-1 visas.
But they face an uphill battle, says Mr. Miano, as business groups are far better organized and funded than the smattering of programmer groups. "They have the best legislation money can buy," he says.
Miano sees such a dim future for programmers that he decided to enter law school. "I saw the handwriting on the wall," he says.
Another thought: what if we develop a critical need for programmers for national defense?
Ding-dong...
They can take my keyboard when they pry my cold, dead hands from it...
ping
They left me my keyboard.. but took away my compiler. :-(
I know a fair amount of programmers. So much code for so many processes and instructions is already written. Many of my programmer friends describe their jobs as now, "cut and paste". Why pay somebody 80K a year for that?
I know that is not how all programmers work but seriously, a lot of the programming going overseas is nothing more than the assembly of already existent code.
Techies need to learn business skills. Programming can be done anywhere. But business (and especially marketing)tends to be culturally specific to a given country. If you learn business skills, you can be the guy directing the programmers, no matter where they are working.
Programming used to be an elite job. It no longer is. Sounds like part of the problem is that the American programmers simply won't take $53,000 per year. "We're too good for those peanuts!!" No you're not.
Powder..Patch..Ball FIRE!
Not around this part of the country. The consulting company I work for has hired many additional consultants in the last 12 months and our work backlog continues to grow....
:-(
Thank you congress.....NAFTA.....$$$....bribery outsourcing.....What's a citizen's VESTED INTEREST...?
The main problem is, there is very little government can do, IMO, to counter such long-term economic changes. It's up to the workers to either adapt or lose out.
I know this experience is anectdotal, but Im an Information Systems major at Mississippi State and the recruiters have been hitting the campus pretty hard. The amount of companies coming here and hiring has increased markedly from two years ago. At the same time, the market for fresh out of college grads and is probably not indicative of the industry as a whole, but it does make me feel a lot better about my major than I did before :P
But even the optimists believe that many basic programming jobs will go to foreign nations, leaving behind jobs for Americans to lead and manage software projects.
No longer can programmers get a job on their skills alone. To get ahead, programmers now must also be leaders, managers, and businessmen.
If you have notepad.exe (or a compiler) and a great idea, outsourcing will not effect you.
The hard part is figuring out that idea everyone wants.
I got the latest update for Quickbooks and it was a mess. It was the first upgrade from quickbooks in seven years that actually was worse than the old version. If that's what programmers are doing, send them over until they can get things right the first time.
Oh, for friggin' crying out loud. I was busy and didn't see the debate. That's just the most *brain-dead* response, especially when you're talking to a technical worker (engineering, IT, computer programmer, mathematician) or professional (radiologist) affected directly by outsourcing.
Notice that there is a simple solution to these problems. Bring more American jobs home, and keep them here. Thus, the trade deficit is addressed. And, with more Americans enjoying well paying jobs, tax revenues will soon diminish the federal budget deficit.
End the loss of American jobs now!
The next job outsourced may well be YOURS!
If you want on or off my offshoring ping list, please FReepmail me!
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