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Numerical Analysis: Gallup polls - May to October, 2004.
Gallup Organization ^
| October 12th, 2004
| dvwjr
Posted on 10/12/2004 6:01:09 PM PDT by dvwjr
Here are the 'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last fourteen Gallup presidential preference polls, including the October 9-10, 2004 poll which was just released. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each Gallup poll of Registered voters data. Also included is a re-weighting of the Gallup Registered voter polls with the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation (from VNS exit poll data) results, for comparison purposes only.
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TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: dvwjr; gallup; napalminthemorning; poll; polls
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Here are the
'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last fourteen Gallup presidential preference polls, including the October 9-10, 2004 poll which was just released. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each Gallup poll of Registered voters data. Also included is a re-weighting of the Gallup Registered voter polls with the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation
(from VNS exit poll data) results, for comparison purposes only.
The only discernable change in the Gallup partisan internals is that Bush has closed the gap among Independents from [Bush 39%, Kerry 53%, Nader 4%] on October 1-3 to the current [Bush 40%, Kerry 49%, Nader 4%] on October 9-10, 2004. Kerry has solidified his support among Democrats, which now leads to the current tie in the Gallup three-way presidential preference poll.
If the poll result percentages in the table show below are rounded off so as not to have a fractional component, the results should match the published polls for each polling organization. The fractional differences in the table poll results are due to the calculations done to distribute the sample number of Registered voter responses which was necessary to avoid any great inaccuracies due to the rounding already performed by the polling organizations when their results are published. Three corrections were made by me to the calculated August and September Gallup polls to correct math errors since the last time these numbers were published.
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| Gallup Poll Results |
|
Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
| All polls Registered Voters |
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| May 7-9, 2004 |
100.0% |
32.2% |
34.1% |
33.8% |
877 RV |
41.39% |
46.41% |
7.41% |
4.79% |
| May 21-23, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.8% |
37.3% |
28.0% |
883 RV |
44.05% |
46.43% |
5.55% |
3.96% |
| June 3-6, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.5% |
37.7% |
26.8% |
896 RV |
42.41% |
45.42% |
7.37% |
4.80% |
| June 21-23, 2004 |
100.0% |
34.1% |
37.6% |
28.2% |
882 RV |
44.90% |
46.49% |
5.56% |
3.06% |
| July 8-11, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.7% |
37.4% |
25.9% |
891 RV |
42.20% |
49.61% |
3.82% |
4.38% |
| July 19-21, 2004 |
100.0% |
40.5% |
36.3% |
23.1% |
878 RV |
43.39% |
47.38% |
4.90% |
4.33% |
| July 30-August 1, 2004 |
100.0% |
39.2% |
38.3% |
22.5% |
916 RV |
48.14% |
46.94% |
2.40% |
2.51% |
| August 9-11, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.6% |
36.5% |
25.0% |
897 RV |
45.71% |
45.04% |
5.13% |
4.12% |
| August 23-25, 2004 |
100.0% |
37.6% |
33.9% |
28.5% |
876 RV |
46.35% |
46.23% |
3.65% |
3.77% |
| September 3-5, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.2% |
35.5% |
26.2% |
926 RV |
48.49% |
45.79% |
3.56% |
2.16% |
| September 13-15, 2004 |
100.0% |
38.8% |
33.0% |
28.1% |
935 RV |
50.00% |
42.00% |
4.00% |
4.00% |
| September 24-26, 2004 |
100.0% |
39.8% |
32.2% |
28.0% |
926 RV |
52.59% |
42.44% |
3.13% |
1.84% |
| October 1-3, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.9% |
36.6% |
26.4% |
934 RV |
48.61% |
47.43% |
1.39% |
2.57% |
| October 9-10, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.5% |
35.3% |
28.3% |
941 RV |
47.61% |
47.72% |
1.38% |
3.29% |
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Gallup Poll
Internal partisan affiliation breakdowns
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Year 2000 Presidential weighting |
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Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
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VNS calculated exit data |
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36.45% |
35.28% |
28.27% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
92.00% |
8.00% |
40.00% |
Bush: |
48.00% |
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|
45.36% |
|
| 10/10/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
6.00% |
89.00% |
49.00% |
Kerry: |
48.00% |
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50.05% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
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|
1.36% |
|
| 941 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
2.00% |
7.00% |
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
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3.23% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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100.0% |
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36.94% |
36.62% |
26.45% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
93.00% |
10.00% |
39.00% |
Bush: |
49.00% |
|
|
46.57% |
|
| 10/03/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
4.00% |
88.00% |
53.00% |
Kerry: |
47.00% |
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49.47% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
|
|
1.40% |
|
| 934 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
|
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2.56% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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100.0% |
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39.85% |
32.18% |
27.97% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
92.00% |
10.00% |
45.00% |
Bush: |
53.00% |
|
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47.64% |
|
| 09/26/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
84.00% |
46.00% |
Kerry: |
42.00% |
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47.10% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
4.00% |
6.00% |
Nader: |
3.00% |
|
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3.35% |
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| 926 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
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1.92% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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100.0% |
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38.82% |
33.05% |
28.13% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
94.00% |
11.00% |
43.00% |
Bush: |
52.00% |
|
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48.09% |
|
| 09/15/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
4.00% |
85.00% |
50.00% |
Kerry: |
44.00% |
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47.79% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Nader: |
0.00% |
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|
0.00% |
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| 935 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
0.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
|
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4.12% |
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Neither |
1.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
Neither |
1.00% |
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100.0% |
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No Opinion |
1.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
No Opinion |
2.00% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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38.23% |
35.53% |
26.24% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
91.00% |
7.00% |
44.00% |
Bush: |
48.00% |
|
|
45.44% |
|
| 09/05/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
6.00% |
90.00% |
43.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
|
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48.78% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
2.00% |
8.00% |
Nader: |
4.00% |
|
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3.58% |
|
| 926 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
1.00% |
5.00% |
Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
|
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2.20% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100.0% |
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100.0% |
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37.56% |
33.90% |
28.54% |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
88.00% |
8.00% |
37.00% |
Bush: |
46.00% |
|
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43.32% |
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| 08/25/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
9.00% |
88.00% |
46.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
|
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49.47% |
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| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
2.00% |
8.00% |
Nader: |
4.00% |
|
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3.52% |
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| 876 Registered |
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Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
2.00% |
9.00% |
Other/UnDec |
4.00% |
|
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3.69% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100.0% |
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100.0% |
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38.57% |
36.45% |
24.97% |
|
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
89.00% |
6.00% |
37.00% |
Bush: |
46.00% |
|
|
42.77% |
|
| 08/11/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
6.00% |
87.00% |
44.00% |
Kerry: |
45.00% |
|
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47.69% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
5.00% |
10.00% |
Nader: |
5.00% |
|
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5.33% |
|
| 897 Registered |
|
Do not know: |
3.00% |
2.00% |
9.00% |
Do not know: |
4.00% |
|
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4.22% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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100.0% |
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39.19% |
38.32% |
22.49% |
|
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
92.00% |
7.00% |
41.00% |
Bush: |
48.00% |
|
|
45.52% |
|
| 08/01/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
5.00% |
91.00% |
46.00% |
Kerry: |
47.00% |
|
|
49.15% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
1.00% |
7.00% |
Nader: |
2.00% |
|
|
2.66% |
|
| 916 Registered |
|
Do not know: |
2.00% |
1.00% |
6.00% |
Do not know: |
3.00% |
|
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2.67% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100% |
|
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100.0% |
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40.55% |
36.33% |
23.12% |
|
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
84.00% |
7.00% |
30.00% |
Bush: |
43.00% |
|
|
39.43% |
|
| 07/21/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
9.00% |
89.00% |
50.00% |
Kerry: |
47.00% |
|
|
50.91% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
4.00% |
3.00% |
9.00% |
Nader: |
5.00% |
|
|
5.08% |
|
| 878 Registered |
|
Do not know: |
3.00% |
1.00% |
11.00% |
Do not know: |
5.00% |
|
|
4.58% |
|
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100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100% |
|
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100.0% |
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36.70% |
37.37% |
25.93% |
|
|
|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
85.00% |
6.00% |
34.00% |
Bush: |
42.00% |
|
|
40.60% |
|
| 07/11/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
11.00% |
89.00% |
47.00% |
Kerry: |
50.00% |
|
|
51.06% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
2.00% |
10.00% |
Nader: |
4.00% |
|
|
3.91% |
|
| 891 Registered |
|
Do not know: |
3.00% |
3.00% |
9.00% |
Do not know: |
4.00% |
|
|
4.42% |
|
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|
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100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
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34.13% |
37.64% |
28.23% |
|
|
|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
90.00% |
8.00% |
40.00% |
Bush: |
45.00% |
|
|
44.63% |
|
| 06/23/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
86.00% |
43.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
|
|
46.92% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
3.00% |
12.00% |
Nader: |
6.00% |
|
|
5.42% |
|
| 882 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
3.00% |
5.00% |
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
|
|
3.03% |
|
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|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100.0% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
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35.49% |
37.72% |
26.79% |
|
|
|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
86.00% |
9.00% |
33.00% |
Bush: |
42.00% |
|
|
41.54% |
|
| 06/06/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
8.00% |
82.00% |
45.00% |
Kerry: |
45.00% |
|
|
46.26% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
3.00% |
5.00% |
15.00% |
Nader: |
7.00% |
|
|
7.38% |
|
| 896 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
4.00% |
7.00% |
Other/UnDec |
6.00% |
|
|
4.81% |
|
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|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100.0% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
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| |
|
|
34.77% |
37.26% |
27.97% |
|
|
|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
90.00% |
9.00% |
33.00% |
Bush: |
44.00% |
|
|
43.44% |
|
| 05/23/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
83.00% |
48.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
|
|
47.16% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
2.00% |
4.00% |
12.00% |
Nader: |
6.00% |
|
|
5.47% |
|
| 883 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
1.00% |
4.00% |
7.00% |
Other/UnDec |
4.00% |
|
|
3.93% |
|
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100.0% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
32.27% |
33.98% |
33.75% |
|
|
|
34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
Adjusted Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
90.00% |
6.00% |
31.00% |
Bush: |
41.00% |
|
|
41.46% |
|
| 05/09/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
87.00% |
44.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
|
|
47.64% |
|
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
3.00% |
4.00% |
15.00% |
Nader: |
7.00% |
|
|
6.67% |
|
| 877 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
0.00% |
3.00% |
10.00% |
Other/UnDec |
6.00% |
|
|
4.22% |
|
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100.0% |
|
|
100.0% |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Now take a look at the internal partisan preference breakdowns of two polls taken by Gallup (October 1-3, 2004) and Fox News (October 3-4, 2004) during overlapping time-periods in the begining of the month of October. Note the difference between the Gallup and Fox News sampling of the preference of the Independents they polled over similar time periods. Very interesting sampling difference for a national presidential preference poll.
Gallup
October 1-3, 2004
Partisan Internal Preferences
| |
|
|
36.94% |
36.62% |
26.45% |
|
|
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| Gallup |
|
Favor Bush |
93.00% |
10.00% |
39.00% |
Bush: |
49.00% |
| 10/03/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
4.00% |
88.00% |
53.00% |
Kerry: |
47.00% |
| MoE ±4.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
1.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
| 934 Registered |
|
Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Other/UnDec |
3.00% |
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
|
100% |
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics
October 3-4, 2004
Partisan Internal Preferences
| |
|
|
34.42% |
42.09% |
23.49% |
|
|
| Poll Information |
|
Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| FoxNews |
|
Favor Bush |
93.00% |
10.00% |
50.00% |
Bush: |
47.00% |
| 10/04/04 |
|
Favor Kerry |
4.00% |
83.00% |
39.00% |
Kerry: |
45.00% |
| MoE ±3.0% |
|
Favor Nader |
0.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
| 1,000 Likely |
|
Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
6.00% |
6.00% |
Other/UnDec |
6.00% |
| |
|
Wont Vote: |
1.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
Wont Vote: |
1.00% |
| |
|
|
100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
Cableguy, RWR8189: Take a look at the "Left Coaster" data supposedly direct from an "internal" Gallup source. Compare his numbers to what Gallup has publicly released, there are some differences. For the previous October 1-3, 2004 Gallup poll his text indicates that Gallup screwed up and had to go back and interview as many of the poll respondents as possible in order to ask them their party identification because they forgot to do so during the original interview. If this is so, then how did Gallup release their internals on October 4th, 2004 (as published by RWR8189 here) if they needed to perform a later series of callbacks? Maybe I just don't understand...
Registered Voters
.
Registered Voter Sample Party ID – Poll of October 1-3
Reflected Bush Winning by 49%-47%
.
Total Sample: 934
GOP: 274 (36%)*
Dem: 287 (38%)*
Ind: 209 (26%)*
.
*Repercentaged as party ID was not asked of every
respondent and interviewers called back to ascertain
this information.
.
.
Registered Voter Sample Party ID – Poll of October 9-10
Reflected Dead Heat 48%-48%
.
Total Sample: 1015
GOP: 364 (36%)
Dem: 344 (34%)
Ind: 295 (29%)
Likely Voters
Likely Voter Sample Party ID – Poll of October 1-3
Reflected Dead Heat 49%-49%
.
Total Sample: 772
GOP: 220 (35%)*
Dem: 245 (39%)*
Ind: 175 (26%)*
.
*Repercentaged as party ID was not asked of every
respondent and interviewers called back to ascertain
this information from missed respondents.
.
Likely Voter Sample Party ID – Poll of October 9-10
Reflected Kerry Winning by 49%-48%
.
Total Sample: 793
GOP: 302 (38%)
Dem: 269 (34%)
Ind: 219 (28%)
Source: The Left Coaster - Tuesday, October 12, 2004 "Yesterday's Gallup Poll Had GOP Advantage - Once Again"
Left Coaster
(self-published Gallup 'Internal' R/D/I)
October 9-10, 2004
| |
Likely |
|
| Rep |
302 |
38.23% |
| Dem |
269 |
34.05% |
| Ind |
219 |
27.72% |
| Total: |
790 |
100.00% |
| |
|
|
| |
Registered |
|
| Rep |
364 |
36.29% |
| Dem |
344 |
34.30% |
| Ind |
295 |
29.41% |
| Total: |
1003 |
100.00% |
What is strange is that his numbers do work for all the publish Gallup data, however Gallup and CNN/USA Today/Gallup methodology says that the poll had 1,015 National Adults, 941 Registered voters and 793 Likely voters. Where the 'Left Coaster' gets the numbers '790 Likely' and '1,005 Registered' voters is a mystery to me, because if the numbers a valid, then Gallup must have another set of numbers that they actually use for calculations, then a set of numbers for the rest of us...
Here is the CNN/USA Today/Gallup methodology information since the link may disappear...
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,015 National Adults, aged 18+, conducted October 9-10, 2004. For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 793 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 General Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 55% of national adults. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.
For results based on the sample of 941 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
I have created a temporary 'ping' list to many who had expressed interest in these 'Rep/Dem/Ind' poll breakdowns. If you wish to be added (or removed) from this 'ping' list, please place a reply on this thread and I will attempt to clean-up this list so as to not bother those who do not wish to read this type of poll analysis.
Hope this helps...
dvwjr
1
posted on
10/12/2004 6:01:09 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: 1stMarylandRegiment; 2nd Amendment; 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub; ableChair; admiralsn; AFPhys; ...
Gallup poll analysis ping...
dvwjr
2
posted on
10/12/2004 6:01:57 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
Are you sure these are correct? "Likely Voter Sample Party ID – Poll of October 9-10
Reflected Kerry Winning by 49%-48%
Total Sample: 793
GOP: 302 (38%)
Dem: 269 (34%)
Ind: 219 (28%)
" Those don't really make sense... I'm confused.
3
posted on
10/12/2004 6:05:14 PM PDT
by
okstate
(I'm John Kerry, and I approved this message... before I decided against it.)
To: dvwjr
Interesting numbers here. More Republicans polled with more pull from democrats than democratic pull from republicans, and we are just tied because of the independent voter going for Kerry by 9%. Very interesting.
4
posted on
10/12/2004 6:07:27 PM PDT
by
aft_lizard
(Actually i dropped in on)
To: dvwjr
Bush's magic numbers seem to be 90 (R), 15 (D), 45 (I).
If he gets those, he will win a close race. If he can improve on them, he will have a sizable EV win.
On the other hand, if F'n can bring a few more of his RATs home, or can win the Indys by five points or more, he may yet pull this out.
To: okstate
Those are Gallup numbers (internal) published by the "Left Coaster" web site which says the Gallup provides said numbers. Follow the "Source:" link to see where they came from...
dvwjr
6
posted on
10/12/2004 6:08:27 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
Jeez, my head is spinning. I did notice the last poll there was for registered voters on the Gallup poll and likely voters on the FOX poll so normally that would mean the FOX data is more reliable.
Frankly, I'm overwhelmed with all this polling data. It's like my cell phone. A few features were good. Now I'm overwhelmed with features and have to carry around a 10 pound user guide for it. Polls are out of hand!
7
posted on
10/12/2004 6:11:32 PM PDT
by
Arkie2
To: Arkie2
How about a poll on whether Americans want to continue polls? LOL!
To: Arkie2
9
posted on
10/12/2004 6:26:03 PM PDT
by
cajungirl
(Jammies Up!!)
To: cajungirl
I see RCP has a Democracy Corps poll just up on their web site. It has Bush 49 to Kerry 48. I believe this is the Carville polling group. If I remember last week, they had Bush up by 2. So not bad for democractic polling firm. All around good polling news for Bush today. Definitely seems to have the momemtum back, and is increasing his lead again. Just gotta go after Kerry hard on Wednesday. I don't think Bush has to hit him with the greatest debating points. Just attack attack attack. If Bush can do good on Wednesday, I think the race is about over.
10
posted on
10/12/2004 6:39:46 PM PDT
by
gswilder
To: dvwjr
This helps a lot, looking at the internals over time, thanks for making this easy for us!
To: dvwjr
1) We don't know for sure these are legitimate Gallup numbers.
2) Non-Kerry Dems have undecided, the Green guy and Nader to select, and in the South they also have Bush.
3) Republicans have fringe candidates and undecided to select, and in the Northeast they have Kerry.
Do we think item 2 is < item 3? I think we have consistent evidence to the contrary, that there are more Southern conservative Dems than Northeast liberal Republicans. The south's population from Arkansas east to the ocean is greater than the Northeast, as evidenced by total EVs.
12
posted on
10/12/2004 6:55:03 PM PDT
by
Owen
To: dvwjr
Am I reading the Registered/Likely voters correctly to conclude that Republicans are more likely to vote (83%) than Dems (78)? Secondly, and maybe you have previously commented on this, is the assumption of a 55% turnout valid? (2000 - 51%; 1996 - 51; 1992 - 55).
I am beginning to sense a campaign fatigue setting in, including exasperated comments like both candidates are bad so I might as well vote for the known candidate. The Washington Post had a recent article commenting on the lack of energy at Kerry rallies versus the rock star adoration at Bush rallies. Kerry supporters don't have a sense of what he's going to do on any issue. Republican voters have all kinds of hot button issues, from gay marriage, to abortion, to national security. Even those frustrated by Bush spending can't see anything tempting in Kerry.
My point, are Bush supporters more likely to vote?
13
posted on
10/12/2004 7:31:47 PM PDT
by
Dolphy
(It's not a plan, it's an echo.)
To: dvwjr
Thanks for breaking all of this down for us!
14
posted on
10/12/2004 7:51:16 PM PDT
by
RWR8189
(Its Morning in America Again!)
To: dvwjr
Do we have any idea of the actual registered voters this time in percentages per party?
15
posted on
10/12/2004 7:53:31 PM PDT
by
McGavin999
(If Kerry can't deal with the "Republican Attack Machine" how is he going to deal with Al Qaeda)
To: dvwjr; Salvation; redlipstick; texasflower; seamole; Doctor Stochastic; MegaSilver; BlueAngel; ...
Gallup Ping
FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.
16
posted on
10/12/2004 8:12:24 PM PDT
by
RWR8189
(Its Morning in America Again!)
To: Dolphy
The Republicans have been historically favored in the likely voter numbers by around 1%-2% since the Republican voter is more persistant in getting to the polls and casting a valid vote. Democrats have more of a problem with their base doing the same. I have seen projections of 55% to 57% as the expected turnout numbers, with some saying we could hit 1960, 1964 levels of over 60% of registered voters actually voting. We shall see...
Nationwide, Bush voters are more likely to vote, the question is "will there be ehough of them"...
National Voter Turnout in Federal Elections: 1960-2000
| Year |
Voting-age
population |
Voter
registration |
Voter turnout |
Turnout of voting-age
population (percent) |
| 2000 |
205,815,000 |
156,421,311 |
105,586,274 |
51.3% |
| 1998 |
200,929,000 |
141,850,558 |
73,117,022 |
36.4 |
| 1996 |
196,511,000 |
146,211,960 |
96,456,345 |
49.1 |
| 1994 |
193,650,000 |
130,292,822 |
75,105,860 |
38.8 |
| 1992 |
189,529,000 |
133,821,178 |
104,405,155 |
55.1 |
| 1990 |
185,812,000 |
121,105,630 |
67,859,189 |
36.5 |
| 1988 |
182,778,000 |
126,379,628 |
91,594,693 |
50.1 |
| 1986 |
178,566,000 |
118,399,984 |
64,991,128 |
36.4 |
| 1984 |
174,466,000 |
124,150,614 |
92,652,680 |
53.1 |
| 1982 |
169,938,000 |
110,671,225 |
67,615,576 |
39.8 |
| 1980 |
164,597,000 |
113,043,734 |
86,515,221 |
52.6 |
| 1978 |
158,373,000 |
103,291,265 |
58,917,938 |
37.2 |
| 1976 |
152,309,190 |
105,037,986 |
81,555,789 |
53.6 |
| 1974 |
146,336,000 |
96,199,0201 |
55,943,834 |
38.2 |
| 1972 |
140,776,000 |
97,328,541 |
77,718,554 |
55.2 |
| 1970 |
124,498,000 |
82,496,7472 |
58,014,338 |
46.6 |
| 1968 |
120,328,186 |
81,658,180 |
73,211,875 |
60.8 |
| 1966 |
116,132,000 |
76,288,2833 |
56,188,046 |
48.4 |
| 1964 |
114,090,000 |
73,715,818 |
70,644,592 |
61.9 |
| 1962 |
112,423,000 |
65,393,7514 |
53,141,227 |
47.3 |
| 1960 |
109,159,000 |
64,833,0965 |
68,838,204 |
63.1 |
n.a. = not available.
NOTE: Presidential election years are in boldface.
4. Registrations from Ala., Alaska, D.C., Iowa, Kans., Ky., Miss., Mo., Nebr., N.C., N.D., Okla., S.D., Wis., and Wyo. not included.
5. Registrations from Ala., Alaska, D.C., Iowa, Kans., Ky., Miss., Mo., Nebr., N.M., N.C., N.D., Okla., S.D., Wis., and Wyo. not included.
Source: Federal Election Commission. Data drawn from Congressional Research Service reports, Election Data Services Inc., and State Election Offices.
We shall soon see...
dvwjr
17
posted on
10/12/2004 8:13:28 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
The Republicans have been historically favored in the likely voter numbers by around 1%-2% since the Republican voter is more persistant in getting to the polls and casting a valid vote Yes, but the advantage here looks larger which could be significant. The anecdotal national reporting suggests that Bush supporters are more fired up to vote than Kerry's, particularly beyond the hate Bush core numbers.
As for the national turnout, intuitively I would agree that it should be high. There are certainly more critical issues on the table than in 2000 when it came in at 51%. But when I read here that O'Reilly said tonight that he was tired of Iraq and I hear a local sports talk guy say he's tired of Bush and Kerry talking about issues that don't matter, I begin to wonder how much indifference is out there.
18
posted on
10/12/2004 8:43:47 PM PDT
by
Dolphy
(It's not a plan, it's an echo.)
To: dvwjr; RWR8189
Last time there was a discrepancy, I contacted LeftCoaster, and he never got back to me.
As far as Gallup's quality of work, I have been very disappointed with them in the last few weeks. Gallup is putting polls out during the weekend, which has a very negative bias toward Republicans. So even if the party ID is roughly even, I don't think it represents a quality sample.
Let me give you an example. Almost every poll I have seen shows that the 2nd debate was a tie (Rasmussen, ABC, Wash Post, etc.). Gallup has Kerry winning it by a 10-15 margin in that poll they conducted over the weekend.
It is truly a shame because it seems like Gallup is now coming out with these incomplete polls so they can get headlines like Newsweek instead of putting out quality work.
19
posted on
10/12/2004 9:29:06 PM PDT
by
Cableguy
October 12 (http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct12p.html)
October 13 (watch this space)
October 14 (watch this space)
20
posted on
10/12/2004 10:05:54 PM PDT
by
SunkenCiv
("All I have seen teaches me trust the Creator for all I have not seen." -- Emerson)
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