Ohio Voter Registration analysis

http://www.nixguy.com ^ | 10/11/2004 | me

[delapaz]

New Voter Registration: Not Enough for Kerry

There have been a lot of stories pushing the idea that a whole bunch of new voters are being registered in Ohio. What is underreported is that there are huge increases in Republican counties as well. Especially read the Enquirer article below.

Sources: Columbus Dispatch, Cincinnati Enquirer, Cleveland PD

What I've done is scour through these newspaper articles trying to figure out how many new registrations there are and in what counties. I then extrapolate from 2000 election results how many of these registrations are new Bush voters and new Kerry votes. what I have so far is 100,000 new votes for Kerry, if the turnout and county breakdown's are as follows. In this analysis I am being extremely generous to Democrats. Giving 95% of Cuyahoga's new registrations to Kerry and assuming an 80% turnout model for these new votes, which is extremely high historically.

		vote %		Turnout	new votes
County	new reg	% Bush	%Dem		Bush	Kerry
NW
Lucas	25000	50%	50%	80%	10000	10000
					0	0
Central					0	0
Delaware	14000	70%	30%	80%	7840	3360
Franklin	200000	40%	60%	80%	64000	96000
SW					0	0
Hamilton	64000	54%	42%	80%	27648	21504
Warren	17000	70%	28%	80%	9520	3808
Butler	25000	63%	34%	80%	12600	6800
Clermont	12000	68%	30%	80%	6528	2880
NE					0	0
Cuyahoga	133000	5%	95%	80%	5320	101080
Geauga	15000	60%	36%	80%	7200	4320
Lake	15000	50%	50%	80%	6000	6000
			Total new		146656	245752
			Net for Bush			-99096
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Conclusion: increased voter registration in Republican counties are offsetting Cuyahoga and Franklin counties. Watch for updates. Gore lost by 166,000 votes in 2000. It could be close but even giving Kerry benefit of the doubt on these new registrations Ohio still looks very tough for him to win. I feel good.

[delapaz]

listen to this then:

The Bush-Cheney campaign sees the landscape differently. By its calculations, registration in 48 traditionally Republican counties is up 2.4 percent from 2000, while overall registration in 11 loyal Democratic counties is actually down 4.3 percent - largely because of urban population losses.

That's from the cleveland PD article. Sounds good to me! Biggest thing is that the Bush campaign is very aware of the voter registration thing and they are on top of it. That's what I got out of this quote.

[Souled_Out]

Just because people register as a Republican does not mean they are going to vote Republican.

The real issue is legal voter registration.

The easiest thing to do would be to register in one party and vote for another. If people were caught that would make it look like the Republicans were the cheaters.

[dalight]

I hate to point out the possibility that alot of these registrations have been cherry picked by the outfits that got them. Remember that Dem 527's are funding alot of this and these folks were found with boxes of registration forms squirreled away. Its really easy to throw away the mistakes.. so I would only believe this rosy analysis if I saw the breakdowns of some of these by the board of elections.

[dalebert]

Greta doing Voter Registration Fraud story now on FOX

[Mikey_1962]

Robert S. "light at the end of the tunnel" McNamara first drove Ford Motor Company into the ground before he destroyed our Military.

By the way when he was CEO of FORD he demanded a "Car Count" of the previous day much like the "Body Count" he wanted in Viet Nam

[Meldrim]

Gore may have lost by 166,000, but last time Nader syphoned of many more votes than what he is likely to do in a few weeks.

[delapaz]

That's a good point. Last time, nader received 117000 votes in Ohio. He's off the ballot this time around. This certainly helps Kerry in a close election. I'm wondering how many of those extreme left voters will vote for Kerry. Probably quite a few.

[Redleg Duke]

We need to force each and every voter to dip his/her thumb into indelible purple ink!

It worked in Afganistan, it should work here in the USA!

[JayNorth]

We need to force each and every voter to dip his/her thumb into indelible purple ink! It worked in Afganistan, it should work here in the USA!

We're going to have to do something in the next four years. Assuming we win this one (and I volunteer almost every day at our local RNC office), the RATs will be even more desperate next time around. The level of fraud and deceit that the RATs practice knows no limits. Requiring prove of citizenship and a photo ID to register and then a photo ID to vote, with a national database to keep the students and snowbirds from voting absentee in one state and in person in the other is the only way to get a legitimate election. We'll still be fighting a lot of built-in unfairness (MSM, block voting by unions and certain minorities, etc.) but the conservative viewpoint will win every time in a fair fight.