Posted on 10/12/2004 1:28:15 PM PDT by delapaz
New Voter Registration: Not Enough for Kerry
There have been a lot of stories pushing the idea that a whole bunch of new voters are being registered in Ohio. What is underreported is that there are huge increases in Republican counties as well. Especially read the Enquirer article below.
Sources: Columbus Dispatch, Cincinnati Enquirer, Cleveland PD
What I've done is scour through these newspaper articles trying to figure out how many new registrations there are and in what counties. I then extrapolate from 2000 election results how many of these registrations are new Bush voters and new Kerry votes. what I have so far is 100,000 new votes for Kerry, if the turnout and county breakdown's are as follows. In this analysis I am being extremely generous to Democrats. Giving 95% of Cuyahoga's new registrations to Kerry and assuming an 80% turnout model for these new votes, which is extremely high historically.
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| vote % | Turnout | new votes | ||||
| County | new reg | % Bush | %Dem | Bush | Kerry | |
| NW | ||||||
| Lucas | 25000 | 50% | 50% | 80% | 10000 | 10000 |
| 0 | 0 | |||||
| Central | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Delaware | 14000 | 70% | 30% | 80% | 7840 | 3360 |
| Franklin | 200000 | 40% | 60% | 80% | 64000 | 96000 |
| SW | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Hamilton | 64000 | 54% | 42% | 80% | 27648 | 21504 |
| Warren | 17000 | 70% | 28% | 80% | 9520 | 3808 |
| Butler | 25000 | 63% | 34% | 80% | 12600 | 6800 |
| Clermont | 12000 | 68% | 30% | 80% | 6528 | 2880 |
| NE | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Cuyahoga | 133000 | 5% | 95% | 80% | 5320 | 101080 |
| Geauga | 15000 | 60% | 36% | 80% | 7200 | 4320 |
| Lake | 15000 | 50% | 50% | 80% | 6000 | 6000 |
| Total new | 146656 | 245752 | ||||
| Net for Bush | -99096 | |||||
| < ![if supportMisalignedColumns]> | ||||||
Conclusion: increased voter registration in Republican counties are offsetting Cuyahoga and Franklin counties. Watch for updates. Gore lost by 166,000 votes in 2000. It could be close but even giving Kerry benefit of the doubt on these new registrations Ohio still looks very tough for him to win. I feel good.
IIRC, Ralph Reed has been coordinating the registration drive in Ohio among the born-again Christians, he has a good track record of delivering on election day, I think he was responsible for the 2002 Georgia election.
I was registering at the fair.. and we ran out of registration forms. I would say 99.7% said they were going to vote for BUSH. Of all nationalities, of all ages.... but majority were college kids.
I'll grant you Miller, but I note that you can't name two others, and Miller is out of office in January. Kennedy, Jackson, and Nunn were well known and influential in their time. The virtual absence of such people in today's 'Rat Party is why they're going the way of the Whigs.
The numbers I've heard here in OH do not support that more GOP are registering than Dems. We have no idea how many Dems are frauds, and certainly registering doesn't = "voting." But the consensus is that the Dems beat us anywhere from 65,000 to 100,000. Again, that won't be enough to beat Bush.
Aren't you assuming that the leftists are filing false registrations only in Cuyahoga County? Judging by developments in Summit County, not mentioned in your analysis, I can say that such an assumption is not in concert with the facts.
No I am assuming that of the 133000 new registrations in Cuyahoga, 80% of them will vote, and 95% of those will vote for Kerry. I am being very generous.
Re#4 I heard that too. Save for two states (which were close in numbers), the GOP has done a great job. With the 72 hour STOMP program, I feel even better....
Don't "misunderestimate" the number of 'informed' democrats who will be voting for Bush this election in every state.
I agree, but wanted to give the benefit to the Kerry campaign. the 95% figure comes from the cleveland PD article where the Rep Campaign chairman believed that 95% of the registrations are by Democrats.
Registering is one thing, they still have to get them to vote.
Looking at the data Cuyahoga went 33% Bush last time but had only 57% of registered voters actually voted.
I hope you're right. But, the definition of an "informed Democrat" is "Republican," is it not?
FYI
God bless you, sir. And thank you for your support. Any way we non-Ohioans can help?
Many democrats will vote for Bush but vote democrat for local and/or state elections. I'll welcome Bush votes from any party. So should you.
After hearing Ronald Reagan inveighing against problems caused by the Democrats, Sam Donaldson asked Reagan, "Don't you bear any responsibility for that problem?""Yes," Reagan replied. "For many years I was a Democrat!"
Reagan said he didn't leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left him. If you are a JFK Democrat it's no miracle that you are voting for George W. Bush; IMHO no other president or presidential candidate in history was more like JFK than President Bush is.
Scoop Jackson could have been Secretary of Defense for anybody; the idea of John Kerry or anyone who can draw flies in a Democratic presidential primary as SecDef is a joke. The truth is that there have been only three Democratic SecDefs in the past half century
Arguably Aspen was the best of the bunch; he at least recognized his own incompetence and resigned.
- Robert S. "light at the end of the tunnel" McNamara
- Harold "Iranian hostage rescue" Brown and
- Les "Black Hawk Down" Aspen.
I'll take Bush votes from Islamofascists. My point is that an enlightened Islamofascist is the same as an informed Democrat: they're both Republicans.
Is there any truth to the rumor that bad weather keeps Democrats home more than Republicans?
Fraud is still my concern, but if we have more new live Bush voters than they have new dead Kerry voters, then that is a relief!
Thanks for supporting the President! I have always been Republican but also have a great deal of respect and admiration for Sam Nunn. (Mr. Nunn currently sits on the Board for DELL). Our family is mostly Republican because my dad suffered for a year in a Siberian prison camp in WWII. We heard many horror stories about the commies growing up. He was starved to less than 100 lbs (6'2")but survived. His story is remarkable and the reason I sit here today. Most of my extended family also suffered under communism and fascism. Its ironic that the people of eastern Europe appreciated President Reagan more (and Pres. Bush)than many Americans. Sadly, I think it will take a tyrant to rule here before alot of Americans awake.
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