Aren't you assuming that the leftists are filing false registrations only in Cuyahoga County? Judging by developments in Summit County, not mentioned in your analysis, I can say that such an assumption is not in concert with the facts.
No I am assuming that of the 133000 new registrations in Cuyahoga, 80% of them will vote, and 95% of those will vote for Kerry. I am being very generous.