Posted on 10/11/2004 3:06:51 PM PDT by Olly
An Electoral Surge for Kerry
This is BusinessWeek Online's second look at how the Electoral College map is shaping up in the 2004 Presidential race. In our first look, President George W. Bush had taken a commanding lead in the race after the GOP convention in New York. Polls had showed him ahead in 30 states with 284 electoral votes -- 14 more than the 270 necessary to win the White House.
But a week of Presidential and Vice-Presidential debates has scrambled the electoral map again. Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry has closed Bush's lead in the popular vote and taken a tiny edge in the Electoral College.
THREE TOSS-UPS. Bush is clearly ahead in 28 states with 237 electoral votes, having lost a decisive edge in the pivotal battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio. Kerry leads in 19 states and the District of Columbia, which account for 247 electoral votes. The three toss-up states -- Florida, Ohio, and Iowa -- with their 54 electoral votes will determine the winner.
The senator must win just one of those three states to reach the 270 electoral votes necessary to capture the White House. Bush must win a megastate and at least two states captured by Al Gore in 2000, including Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Oregon.
Kerry strongly leads Bush in states with 164 votes, while the incumbent has a wide lead in states with 152. But Bush's occasionally halting performance in the Sept. 30 encounter at the University of Miami cost him support across the board, while consolidating Kerry's backing among core Democrats.
BATTLEGROUNDS. That moved six previous toss-ups (all won by Gore in 2000) back into Kerry's camp -- at least for now. The new Kerry-leaning states are Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. That gives the senator an edge in eight of the 20 original battleground states, compared to nine for Bush and three dead even.
Though Kerry has momentum, he shouldn't take anything for granted. Just as the first debate reshuffled the Electoral College lineup, his appearances in St. Louis and Tempe, Ariz., could change the current political landscape. And in this roller-coaster election year, the only constant has been constant change.
Alabama 9 Alaska 3 Arizona 10 Arkansas 6 California 55 Colorado 9 Connecticut 7 Delaware 3 D.C. 3 Florida 27 Georgia 15 Hawaii 4 Idaho 4 Illinois 21 Indiana 11 Iowa 7 Kansas 6
Kentucky 8 Louisiana 9 Maine 4 Maryland 10 Massachusetts 12 Michigan 17 Minnesota 10 Mississippi 6 Missouri 11 Montana 3 Nebraska 5 Nevada 5 New Hampshire 4 New Jersey 15 New Mexico 5 New York 31 North Carolina 15.
North Dakota 3 Ohio 20 Oklahoma 7 Oregon 7 Pennsylvania 21 Rhode Island 4 South Carolina 8 South Dakota 3 Tennessee 11 Texas 34 Utah 5 Vermont 3 Virginia 13 Washington 11 West Virginia 5 Wisconsin 10 Wyoming 3
Where do you get that from?
In the argument for changing the electoral college, I'd say we change it so each county gets one electoral vote. This would take away the sway that big cities have. They are more dependent on gov't services, and thus more likely to vote themselves goodies with my money.
I got that from your previous post where you said Ohio was "scary" and the fact that you didn't answer my question on how you thought things weres going for Bush there. You just said you went to Ohio State. I did put a question mark after my question.... because I wasn't sure what you were saying.
Thanks for the edit.
1. I never said anything about the situation being "scary." (read my posts).
2. I answered your question in a later post.
the hidden help in Ohio is the marriage vote. People who are going to the polls to vote against the gay marriage agenda will be voting for the President.
It's all going to come down to turnout. Bush would have beaten Gore easily in 2000, but the Republican evangelical base was not motivated; Florida panhandle voters thought the state was lost after it was called early; and the Demos had a highly effective, two-pronged voter turnout and fraud effort.
Voters in safe Bush states like Texas need to turn out in force this year too so we don't have to endure another four years of whining about the popular vote.
When are they going to figure out that FLORI-DUH is off the map? It broke Bush after the convention and hasn't swung back EVER!!
Huh?
I could have sworn it said "Erectoral Surprise" when I first saw it, and passed it by. Bad, bad visuals.
Yeeech!
My bad. Either 60s acid or dyslexia, in a redux.
I hope Ras is on the righ0t track but I remember we all fell for his polls in 200 which showed W way in the lead. We also made fun of Zog who luckily called it a tie.
BW is too Liberal for my tastes... this article is a Liberal trying to give Kerry the 'boost' he needs to seem viable. Kind of like electroshock for a corpse.
Very biased spin.
The senator must win just one of those three states to reach the 270 electoral votes necessary to capture the White House
WRONG. According to these totals, Kerry could not win by carrying just Iowa and Kerry could not win by just winning Ohio. Kerry could win by merely winning Florida. Bottom line is that this analysis is lame.
New Mexico? Don't think so. Kerry is so toasted. I love delusion.
"Business Week is the socialist's business journal."
Good comment!
BW is for the guys who work in the mailroom.
Fortune is for the middle managers.
Forbes is for the CEO and guy who owns the company.
Choose your biz mags accordingly!!! :-)
I thought Bush was up 11 in Ohio just a week ago. I forget which poll, but one of the majors.
I stand corrected. I had your post confused with one from "dead".
Ain't gonna happen. I live in Ohio. Trust me. Aside from Cleveland, Youngstown and Toledo, this state is Bush Country. He wins by at least five percent.
has as long as i can remember...
I sure hope you're right.
It's the news cycle. If you've got a big bomb to drop on the otherside you wait until it won't compete for headlines, broadcast news shows are only 22 minutes long must respect the clutter.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.