Posted on 10/11/2004 4:28:15 AM PDT by foolscap
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic challenger John Kerry expanded his slight lead over President Bush to three points in a tight race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Monday.
The Massachusetts senator held a 47-44 percent lead over Bush in the latest three-day tracking poll, up two points from Sunday. Bush's support dropped one point and Kerry's support rose one point in the new poll.
The close race turns up the pressure for Wednesday's final debate in Tempe, Arizona, when the White House rivals will have another chance to make their case to voters on domestic issues.
The poll found six percent of likely voters are still undecided about the race with barely more than three weeks to go until the Nov. 2 election, and 16 percent of the voters who identify themselves as independents are undecided.
Bush made small gains among young voters and Kerry picked up strength among women voters ahead of the debate -- the final chance for both candidates to speak directly to an audience of millions of voters.
"Wednesday's debate is vital because many sub-groups remain close and because so many independents have yet to make up their minds," pollster John Zogby said.
The poll of 1,214 likely voters was taken Friday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.
The last two days of polling came after Bush and Kerry battered each other over Iraq, jobs and taxes during a debate on Friday. The economy and Iraq are consistently listed as the top issues in the race.
A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.
The poll found 48 percent of voters thought the United States was headed in the wrong direction and 45 percent thought it was headed in the right direction.
It also showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Al Gore to cost him the election in 2000, earning the support of 1.7 percent of likely voters
Fox News called 2000 dead even, it will be interesting what their poll says
Anyone know the 2002 turnout? I think Pubs were up closer to Dims...
I'm beginning to think the only polls that mean anything are the ones that Karl Rove runs to find out what's really happening with the voters. Bush & Rove sound fairly confident these days, so I'm not concerned about this Zogged-out poll.
I expect this gap to close in the next few days. But I don't trust Zogby now anyway. I used to. He's an Arabist with an agenda.
Actually there were other polls that showed the race within 1 point the day before the 2000 election. But Zogby's polls move alot on his last poll. He missed in 1996 and projected a bigger Clinton win than what occured.
He was also totally off base on the 2002 mid-term elections.
Click
Released: October 11, 2004 Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: President Bush Falls Back, While Senator Kerry Moves Ahead; Kerry, 47% - Bush, 44%; President Gaining Momentum Among Younger Voters (47%-38%), New Reuters/Zogby Poll Reveals
As the count down to election day continues, Senator John Kerry leads President George W. Bush by three points (47%-44%), according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The telephone poll of 1214 likely voters was conducted from Friday through Sunday (October 8- 10, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.
Presidential Candidates %
Oct 8- Oct 10
Oct 7-Oct 9
Oct 6-Oct 8
Republican - George W. Bush
44
45
45
Democrat - John Kerry
47
46
46
Independent - Ralph Nader
1.7
.9
1.4
Libertarian - Michael Badnarik
.1
.1
-
Constitution - Michael Peroutka
.2
.2
.2
Green - David Cobb
.1
.2
.1
Other
.9
.7
.7
Undecided
6
7
6
Pollster John Zogby: "The President did not have a good single day today. He has lost another point over the three days. Polling 44% is not good for an incumbent -- but this is very far from over. Bush seems to be making gains among 18-29 year olds. He now leads among them -- something that has not happened all year until now. I am watching closely to see if that continues. This group also has 9% undecided, which is high for this year. Neither Bush's gains nor the high undecideds are good news for Kerry.
"The President also appears to be getting stronger in the Central/Great Lakes region -- home of Ohio, Michigan, and Missouri. I will continue to watch that. As will I look closely at military families where the President has picked up a few points.
"But the President only leads among married voters by 11 points -- not enough to offset Kerry's strong lead among singles.
"Kerry continues to poll well among low income and union voters. He has improved his standing among women and is running strong among voters who have active passports -- perhaps a sign that he is making his case on foreign policy. Kerry also continues his dominance among Jewish voters. While the sub-group polled is small, the fact that the President never seems to break 20% of this group at least suggests that he might not do as well as his advisors have suggested.
"Ralph Nader continues to slip-- polling only 1.7%. He does receive 5% of Independent voters but is barely a blip on the screen among Democrats. Kerry leads among Independents by 6 points, but 16% of them are undecided.
"Lots more campaign to go. Wednesday's debate is vital because many sub-groups remain close and because so many Independents have yet to make up their minds.”
Zogby International conducted interviews of 1214 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 8 through October 10, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.
In 1996, John Zogby came within one-tenth of 1 percent of the presidential result. Since 1996, Zogby has polled for Reuters News Agency, the largest news agency in the world. The latest results and analysis of the Zogby polls, and exclusive interviews with John Zogby are available on Reuters.com. The site provides comprehensive coverage of the campaigns, including a special video service, which compares the position of both candidates on key policy issues.
(10/11/2004)
| Gore | Bush | Nader | Others | Not Sure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/00 | 48 | 46 | 4 | No more info | |
| 11/05/00 | 46 | 47 | 5 | No more info | |
| 11/02/00 | 42 | 46 | 6 | No more info | |
| 11/01/00 | 42 | 45 | 5 | No more info | |
| 10/31/00 | 40 | 47 | 5 | No more info | |
| 10/30/00 | 42 | 45 | 5 | No more info | |
| 10/25/00 | 45 | 43 | 4 | No more info | |
| 10/20/00 | 44 | 45 | No more info | ||
| 10/17/00 | 43 | 44 | No more info | ||
| 10/16/00 | 41 | 43 | No more info | ||
| 10/10/00 | 42 | 43 | No more info | ||
| 10/01/00 | 44.6 | 42.5 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 7.7 |
| 09/30/00 | 44.4 | 43.6 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 7.2 |
| 09/29/00 | 44.3 | 43.0 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 6.9 |
1996
Clinton Dole Perot Un- decided Other Clinton- Dole Margin Error
Poll - ElectCandidate
ErrorElection Result 49.0% 41% 8% 2% 8% CBS/NYT 53% 35% 9% 3% 0% 18% 10% 5.0% ABC News 51% 39% 7% 3% 0% 12% 4% 2.0% NBC/WSJ 49% 37% 9.0% 5% 0% 12% 4% 2.0% Gallup/CNN/USA Today 52% 41% 7% 0% 0% 11% 3% 1.5% ICR/Politics Now 51% 38% 11% 0% 0% 13% 5% 2.5% Hotline/Battleground 45% 36% 8% 11% 0% 9% 1% 0.5% Harris 51% 39% 9% 0% 1% 12% 4% 2.0% Zogby/Reuters 49% 41% 8% 0% 2% 8% 0% 0.0% PSR/PewCenter 52% 38% 9% 0% 1% 14% 6% 3.0%
It's the Zogby Muslim connection IMO!
Where does Bush lead by 7?
BTW, did anyone poing Courage ?
That is a very interesting fact since Rasmussen uses the same breakdown. Rasmussen currently has Bush up by 4. There should not be a seven point swing with two polls that use the same methods.
Fox News also had it tied 46% 46% I believe.
That was the "final" poll. In the weeks before the election in 96 his poll looked more like the CBS poll (at the end)
Oh, my God - the sky is falling!
I would further guess that Zogby allocates independent and undecided voters differently from Rasmussen and that he has a very different model for determining who is or is not a likely voter. Unfortunately, neither one discloses much about how he conducts his polls.
For a good general critique of these two pollsters and others, see the following article:
http://polipundit.com/index.php?p=4176
Yes but we are not taking cheating into consideration.
Can't trust Zogby.
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