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Eye Blinks Predict Bush Win
NECN ^ | Oct 6,2004 | Prof. Joseph Tecce

Posted on 10/06/2004 9:34:34 PM PDT by David M. Brooks

Boston Collage Prof. Joseph Tecce (Psychology), who studies the causes and effects of nonverbal expressions discussed the Bush/Kerry and and Cheney/Edwards debates on the NECN cable network (controlled by the Boston Globe) and said in the Bush/Kerry debate Bush had an average eyeblink rate of about 40 (a normal range is between 30 and 50) and Kerry had a 51 blinks per minute average, slightly outside the normal range. According to Tecce, the eyeblink rate, an indicator of stress, was predictive of the winner in the 6 in the last 7 of the last presidential elections, and for the 2000 election, was predictive of the winner of the popular vote.

According to Tecco, Edwards had a much higher eye blink rate than Cheney.

NECN has not posted the story, but it was on the on the air.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bush; cheney; firstdebate; gwb2004; kewl; politics; predictions; stress; tecce
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1 posted on 10/06/2004 9:34:34 PM PDT by David M. Brooks
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To: David M. Brooks
Unnngh..
2 posted on 10/06/2004 9:36:26 PM PDT by martin_fierro (So to speak, if you will.)
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To: David M. Brooks

Edwards' eyeblinks were very pronounced....rapid fire when Cheney was speaking..


3 posted on 10/06/2004 9:37:21 PM PDT by MEG33 (John Kerry has been AWOL on issues of national security for two decades)
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To: David M. Brooks

That is interesting because it looked like the President blinked more than Kerry.

I wonder why it appeared that way?


4 posted on 10/06/2004 9:37:53 PM PDT by Anti-Bubba182
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To: David M. Brooks

5 posted on 10/06/2004 9:38:07 PM PDT by jla
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To: David M. Brooks

It had really struck me how often Edwards was blinking while he talked. It made him look very nervous, but that was hardly the only sign. I first heard the debate on radio, and could hear how flustered Edwards was in his voice.


6 posted on 10/06/2004 9:40:41 PM PDT by AndyTheBear (Jesus would have driven a pick up truck, like all the other carpenters.)
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To: David M. Brooks

LOL!!!

Well, at least this prediction allows for some levity.

Does this mean we need to take a stop watch and time the amount of blinks in Friday's debate?


7 posted on 10/06/2004 9:41:11 PM PDT by Soul Seeker
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To: David M. Brooks
I would like to see the cyclic rate on Edwards eyelids... I bet he was firing like 500bpm(blinks per minute)
8 posted on 10/06/2004 9:42:20 PM PDT by FesterUSMC (If you don't have the hammer you are going to be the anvil, and I would rather be the hammer!)
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To: MEG33

My lefty friend remarked about Edwards eye blinking at least 3 times...as in: "Whats the matter with him?"


9 posted on 10/06/2004 9:43:12 PM PDT by antaresequity
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To: MEG33

They sure were rapid fire when Edwards himself was talking, but I handn't noticed the blinking while Cheney was.


10 posted on 10/06/2004 9:43:16 PM PDT by AndyTheBear (Jesus would have driven a pick up truck, like all the other carpenters.)
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To: AndyTheBear

He sounded like a lawyer arguing a case where he is not really sure that his client has been levelling with him. The skill was there but the thrill was(Senator)gone.


11 posted on 10/06/2004 9:44:38 PM PDT by AmericanVictory (Should we be more like them, or they like us?)
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To: Anti-Bubba182

you are distracted by kerrys lizard tongue movements to

notice the many eye blinks.


12 posted on 10/06/2004 9:44:58 PM PDT by kingattax (FreeRepublic leads...others follow)
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To: FesterUSMC

"I bet he was firing like 500bpm(blinks per minute)"
He could not have sustained that rate without suffering a cookout. In bursts, maybe.


13 posted on 10/06/2004 9:45:52 PM PDT by GSlob
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To: David M. Brooks

For a minute I thought this was an off the wall CBS story.


14 posted on 10/06/2004 9:46:03 PM PDT by manic4organic (Nipplegate and Rathergate: two boobs exposed. (courtesy of Stateline))
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To: kingattax

Quick someone photoshop Kerry licking his eyes with his long ginko-like tongue.


15 posted on 10/06/2004 9:47:04 PM PDT by Kirkwood (I think, therefore I am Republican!)
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Ok, this article is kinda stupid... no offense... :)


16 posted on 10/06/2004 9:48:09 PM PDT by oolatec
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To: Kirkwood

better yet........have him licking edwards eyes


17 posted on 10/06/2004 9:50:10 PM PDT by kingattax (FreeRepublic leads...others follow)
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To: AndyTheBear

They really did not double screen as much..but I noticed when it was split..I usually am looknig at the computer screen and have to remind myself to swivel the chair and peek!


18 posted on 10/06/2004 9:53:56 PM PDT by MEG33 (John Kerry has been AWOL on issues of national security for two decades)
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To: David M. Brooks
This is the actual excerpt from www.boston.com:

Joseph Tecce, a psychology professor at Boston College who studies nonverbal communication, said the starkest difference between the two men came during their closing statements. For much of the debate, each of them blinked between 30 and 50 times a minute, Tecce said, which demonstrates a normal level of stress. Kerry maintained that level during his closing statement -- blinking 49 times a minute -- while Bush blinked 111 times per minute.

The source you posted is a synopsis from 2000 with no reference to this year's debates.

19 posted on 10/06/2004 10:18:14 PM PDT by Dasaji (I read it here first on FreeRepublic - Become a monthly donor!)
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To: Dasaji
My summary was based on viewing the on-the-air interview with Prof. Tecce. I could not find an article link at the NECN website. I linked to Tecce's website artilce (which has obviously has not been updated from the Bush/Gore 2000 debate) to provide some background.

I should have noted that Tecce did not actually predict a Bush win, clearly he could not given that that there are two more debates to come. He also noted other body language stress indicators of the candidates, including Bush and Cheney, such as looking down or away, and Cheney's holding his hands together, and hand gestures. But the only body language indicator that he referenced as predictive of presidential victory were eye blinks, and in the on-the-air interview he said (for what it's worth) that Kerry and Edwards had more blinks.

20 posted on 10/06/2004 11:03:16 PM PDT by David M. Brooks (Twenty Minutes Into The Future)
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