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Poll: Hispanic Vote in 2004 Elections More Divided Than in Past
Hispanic Business ^ | October 6, 2004 | Jorge A. Banales

Posted on 10/06/2004 12:13:19 PM PDT by demlosers

The Democratic Party has traditionally counted on substantial support from Latino voters, but this year Hispanics are very divided between Sen. John Kerry and Republican George W. Bush, according to a poll released Tuesday.

"The poll confirms the fact that the Hispanic vote is in dispute, especially in the presidential election," The Latino Coalition's president, Robert De Posada, whose organization sponsored the poll, said at a press conference.

The Latino Coalition is described as a non-partisan group, but Kerry campaign spokeswoman Fabiola Rodriguez, told EFE that "the group has strong ties to the Republican Party."

The poll, conducted by the firm Opiniones Latinas, was based on interviews with 1,000 adults between Sept. 27 and Oct. 3 and had a 3.1 percent margin of error.

In the 2000 presidential election, then-Democratic candidate Al Gore received 62 percent of the Hispanic vote across the country, but there were regional differences in some states like Florida, where Bush fared better.

"This year, with less than a month to go before the election, Kerry only has a 9-point advantage with Hispanic voters," De Posada said, adding that Kerry is currently preferred by 47 percent of registered Hispanic voters compared to Bush's 38 percent.

"By this point in the campaign, the Democratic presidential candidate should have had a two-to-one advantage, assuring him approximately 60 percent of the Hispanic vote," De Posada said.

"This signifies a serious problem for Kerry if he needs to win in undecided states with large Hispanic populations like New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and Florida," he explained.

De Posada was director of Hispanic Affairs of the National Republican Committee between 1989 and 1992 and headed George H.W. Bush's Hispanic publicity campaign in 1988.

However, Kerry spokeswoman Rodriguez said, "All the major polls in the country show that Sen. Kerry has firm support among Latinos, amounting to nearly 60 percent of the voters in that community."

According to the Latino Coalition poll, one thing that has benefited Bush is that the majority of Latinos, who last year considered the economy and unemployment to be the country's main problems, now believe that U.S. national security is a bigger priority.

Fifty percent of Hispanics believe that Bush is a "stronger and more decisive leader," while only 34 percent hold that opinion of Kerry, according to the Latino Coalition.

The poll also showed that 55.2 percent of those interviewed are opposed to the war in Iraq, compared to 39.2 percent who support it.

Registered to vote or not, 59 percent of Hispanics identify more with the Democratic Party, and only 29.2 percent with the Republican Party, the poll showed.

Additionally, 54 percent believe Kerry would do a better job than Bush of managing the economy and creating jobs.

The poll also showed other details about Latinos in the United States: 65.3 percent of those surveyed were of Mexican descent, while 6.1 percent were Cuban, 8.3 percent Puerto Rican, 6.7 percent South American, 6.2 percent Central American and 3.4 percent Dominican.

As for U.S. ideological labels, 35.9 percent of Latinos consider themselves "conservative," 30 percent "liberal" and 25.9 percent "moderate."

For 22.4 percent of those surveyed, unemployment, job retention and the state of the economy were the most serious problems for their families in the United States, followed by 8.2 percent who mentioned medical assistance and 7.7 percent who brought up education.

The poll also showed that U.S. Hispanics are optimists: 70.8 percent believe that their children will have a better life in the U.S. and 14.8 percent maintain the hope that they will have a standard of living similar to that of their parents. Only 11.3 percent fear that their future will be worse.


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: aliens; hispanicvote; latinovote; poll

1 posted on 10/06/2004 12:13:20 PM PDT by demlosers
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To: demlosers

You'll be surprise HOW many Hispanics are voting for W....THIS IS HUGH! :o]


2 posted on 10/06/2004 12:16:17 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: demlosers
Yeah, but since they aren't voting 90% Republican or supporting Tom Tancredo, they are inferior and should all be deported /sarcasm.

The GOP should work on cultivating the growing upper-middle class Colombian and Venezuelan vote in Florida, the Dominican small business owners in the northeast and lower middle class Mexicans throughout the country. Calling for amnesty will do NOTHING to appeal to these demographics. Neither will the Latino bashing that is all too common among some on this site.

3 posted on 10/06/2004 12:19:04 PM PDT by Clemenza (Cheney is my new hero)
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To: demlosers

If this is true...


4 posted on 10/06/2004 12:34:10 PM PDT by rushmom
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To: Clemenza
During "Total Recall" in CA, one of the more vocal Arnie supporters here in San Diego was Isabel Cruz, a Latina businesswoman:

Maria Shriver stands by her man at San Diego gatherings

At yesterday's lunch, the conversation focused on workers' compensation, taxes and juggling work and family – not on Schwarzenegger's colorful remarks.

"Nobody asked about that," said Isabel Cruz, owner of Cantina Panaderia. "We're all business owners," more interested in workplace issues.

The Dems are soooo last millennium regarding Latinos.

5 posted on 10/06/2004 12:45:38 PM PDT by macbee ("Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake." - Napoleon Bonaparte)
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To: demlosers

It's a shame America's law and security had to be sacrificed to get votes - sometimes a party goes too far - when they count on the end result to justify the action - holding office -

just my thoughts -

Remember the Alamo - the way it really happened without the PC nonsense thrown in


6 posted on 10/06/2004 1:14:14 PM PDT by Pastnowfuturealpha
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To: RoseofTexas
Michael Barone compares the immigration "story" of Latinos to that of the Italians 100 years ago. They are similarly religious (Catholic), have large families, and are family oriented. Unlike the African-Americans (to whom Barone compares the Irish of 100 years ago), they are less likely to work for government (like the police) or stay on the dole. Unlike the Asians (the modern equivalent of yesterday's Jewish immigrants), they do not display the same level of commitment to academia or entrepreneurship.

Using his model, just as Italians became Republicans, so, too, will Latinos.

7 posted on 10/06/2004 2:16:41 PM PDT by MHT
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To: Pastnowfuturealpha

From the article: "For 22.4 percent of those surveyed, unemployment, job retention and the state of the economy were the most serious problems for their families in the United States"

Doesn't that defy the arguement that we need more illegals to fill ALL those jobs?


8 posted on 10/06/2004 4:40:49 PM PDT by AuntB ("Go count your blessings, and then complain to me"...MY Grandma!)
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To: AuntB

Laugh - it sure does -

But do you think anyone is interested in showing common sense about this issue - ? It is sad - and the worse part is that "both" parties are letting this happen - letting the "illegals" in and not seeing the harm to this nation - The people(Americans) have no place to turn for help - :(

just my opinion - take care now - and keep the logic going


9 posted on 10/06/2004 5:09:44 PM PDT by Pastnowfuturealpha
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