Posted on 10/03/2004 7:35:29 PM PDT by dvwjr
Here are the 'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last four Los Angeles Times presidential preference polls, including the September 25-28, 2004 poll which was released five days ago. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each LA Times poll via PDF files. Also included is a re-weighting of the LA Times polls to the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation (from VNS exit poll data) results, for comparison purposes only.
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
The quick LA Times post-debate poll, just released by the LA Times polling organization re-contacted 1,368 'voters' from their September 25-28, 2004 nation-wide presidential preference poll to ultimately create a subset of 725 'voters' as the debate 'panel'. This poll consisted of 1,757 'Adults', 1,531 'Registered' voters and 1,100 'Likely' voters. There was no information on the composition of the 725 'voters', such as information as to the number Registered voters vs Likely voters.
Q. If the November general election for president were being held today and the choices were George W. Bush and Dick Cheney on the Republican ticket, and John Kerry and John Edwards on the Democratic ticket, for whom would you vote: Bush/Cheney or Kerry/Edwards? (INCLUDES LEANERS)All registered voters Post-debate Pre-debate (9/25-28/04) ================================================================================ Bush/Cheney 47% 47% 49% Kerry/Edwards 49% 48% 45% Some other ticket – – – Don’t know 4% 5% 6%
If the poll result percentages in the table show below are rounded off so as not to have a fractional component, the results should match the published polls for each polling organization. The fractional differences in the table poll results are due to the calculations done to distribute the sample number of Registered voter responses which was necessary to avoid any great inaccuracies due to the rounding already performed by the polling organizations when their results are published.
Source: LA Times poll, September 30 - October 1, 2004 Post-debate partial sample 725 'voter' poll.
Source: LA Times poll, September 25-28, 2004
Source: LA Times poll, August 21-24, 2004
Source: LA Times poll, July 17-21, 2004
Source: LA Times poll, June 5-8, 2004
I have created a temporary 'ping' list to many who had expressed interest in these 'Rep/Dem/Ind' poll breakdowns. If you wish to be added (or removed) from this 'ping' list, please place a reply on this thread and I will attempt to clean-up this list so as to not bother those who do not wish to read this type of poll analysis.
Hope this helps...
dvwjr
Numerical Analysis: Newsweek polls - June to October, 2004.
LA Times poll ping.
dvwjr
is newsweak the same as the times? I thought they each had their own poll?
Mistaken title. Asked Moderators to change mistake...
dvwjr
So basically it all comes down to turnout? If the Repbs vote they will pick up enough Conservative Democrats to win but if the Repbs coast the combination of the Democrat Ground game and their Voter Fraud efforts will swing the election to them. Is that a fair assesment of what I am reading? Why do they shift the weight of who they poll back and forth from Repbo to Democrats?
Did you see this info on the Newsweek poll from the Kerrey Spot?
UPDATE: The blog Political Vice Squad says the Newsweek poll is skewed from its earlier one. They decreased Republican sampling by 5 percentage points and increased Democratic sampling by 6 percentage points. Furthermore, on the first of the three nights, the poll was limited to the "Pacific and Mountain time zones." In other words, registered voters from the following states completely were excluded: Texas, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, Indiana, and the entire old South.
Did you see this info on the Newsweek poll from the Kerrey Spot?
UPDATE: The blog Political Vice Squad says the Newsweek poll is skewed from its earlier one. They decreased Republican sampling by 5 percentage points and increased Democratic sampling by 6 percentage points. Furthermore, on the first of the three nights, the poll was limited to the "Pacific and Mountain time zones." In other words, registered voters from the following states completely were excluded: Texas, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, Indiana, and the entire old South.
So they fudged the numbers and still couldn't come up with anything better then a tie. How insane is that.
OMG...I hadn't heard this. Thanks for posting.
It changes everything, doesn't it?
Amazing, isn't it? The left is so desperate that they cheat at everything.
Please remove me from this bump list -- thanks.
Sure does!
Interesting. The polls internals show no real movement in the race besides the 50-50 splitting of undecided independents.
The shifts in the poll are solely from shifts in percentage in party allegiance of those polled.
great work, please ADD me to your ping list.
Q. If the November general election for president were being held today
and the choices were George W. Bush and Dick Cheney on the Republican
ticket, and John Kerry and John Edwards on the Democratic ticket, for
whom would you vote: Bush/Cheney or Kerry/Edwards? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
All registered voters
Post-debate Pre-debate (9/25-28/04)
================================================================================
Bush/Cheney 47% 47% 49%
Kerry/Edwards 49% 48% 45%
Some other ticket – – –
Don’t know 4% 5% 6%
Thanks for this.
Thanks for the ping
great job, thanks!
Check out this out. Check out post #6.
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