Why Bush Won

The American Spectator ^ | 10-01-04 | John Tabin

[veronica]

Bush won the debate last night.

Yes, yes, all the snap polls and focus groups, like most of the talking heads, say that Kerry won. It was stylistically his best performance in memory. He certainly passed the "looks Presidential" test. The lights indicating the time limit, which everyone, including me, thought would hurt Kerry, turned out to be great for him, forcing him to adjust his rhetorical style for the better; it was in fact Bush who went over time once.

But here's a quick test of last night's electoral effect: what do you remember a day later, off the top of your head?

Chances are, it's that Kerry called Iraq "the wrong war at the wrong place at the wrong time." Or that it is bad to send "mixed messages" (or "mixed signals"). Bush said each of these things seven times (Kerry, attempting to parry Bush's thrusts, said "mixed messages" another three times). Kerry spoke competently on each point of debate, but swing voters aren't going to walk around with his talking points in mind -- he only brought up rushing to war three times, for example.

Kerry scored some real rhetorical blows, but he didn't hammer them home as he should have. The failure to catch bin Laden in Tora Bora is a real vulnerability, and while Kerry wisely brought it up early, he only mentioned it again once. While Bush may have the better half of the argument over the efficacy of bilateral vs. multilateral talks with Pyongyang, and the Clintonites may bear much of the blame for the progress of North Korea's nuclear program, but the fact that the missiles went online recently is, at bottom, a big problem for the President. By the time Kerry brought up North Korea, casual viewers -- and the typical swing voter is about as casual as they come -- may have already tuned out.

And Kerry's performance, as good as it was by his standards, was still marred by a few gaffes. That his idea of a superior president is one who asks foreign leaders "What do you need, what do you need now, how much more will it take to get you to join us?" is not the best image for Kerry to project. Romantically invoking a meeting with Charles de Gaulle in Paris does little to dispel the perception of excessive France-friendliness. And the notion of "global test" for when preemption is okay left Bush open to zing him for wanting to let international popularity trump national interest.

Matt Drudge posted last night that Kerry advisors were unknowingly caught in a candid conversation by C-SPAN's cameras where Joe Lockhart told Mike McCurry that "the consensus is it was a draw." Lockhart is more or less correct. And that's why I say Bush won. Kerry might get a small bounce in the polls, but probably not enough to fundamentally change the trajectory of the race.

Is the election over? Not yet -- despite the consensus that last night's would be by far the most important match-up, something in the upcoming debates could prove far more relevant. A lot can change in a month. For the moment, though, Bush's small edge is likely to remain.

John Tabin is a frequent online contributor to The American Spectator.

[uncbob]

In addition I think the so called Undecided Voter Is A MYTH

They are Either

1. Telling the pollers they are UNDECIDED because they don't want to admit they don't know what the hell is going on and in reality won't vote

2. Just like the attention they get from the pundits and the politicians in trying to obtain their vote and in reality won't vote

THere may be some at this point that haven't made up their minds but I doubt the % is significant

[EQAndyBuzz]

First off, Kerry clearly won the debate. There is nothing to be ashamed of and no reason to make excuses. Kerry demonstrated that he has the composure to stand up in front of the people of the United States, look us in the eye, and lie.

Kerry is about Rhetoric. That has always been his style. Last night he didn't answer one question about what he was going to do. He did spend 90 minutes telling everyone what Bush has done wrong. That is what wins debates.

Bush has his record to defend, Kerry, insulated by the media from attacks has nothing to lose and can say whatever he wants to. There are no excused today. Kerry won. Kerry managed to do what had to be done. Give a wink and a nod to the anti-war movement(wrong place wrong war wrong time) while saying he will put more troops into Iraq(keep us in the quagmire)

Fight it, whine about it, deny it, counter it. But Kerry did win.

[piperpilot]

My wife and I both thought this was an absolute horrible showing for the President . . . . Bush looked tired, acted defensive, and was very nonpersuasive in my opinion. My sentiments exactly. I turned off the television a little after 10:00, read some passages from the Bible, prayed for President Bush and went to bed. I couldn't bear to watch it any more. From my days in MBA school, I learned that perception IS reality. The President didn't get the job done last night, and I'm worried. It's October now, and I'm waiting on that October surprise more than ever to put this election beyond reach for sKerry!

[Twinkie]

Kerry looked like the kept, poofed, pampered paramour of a rich woman who had spent his day at the spa getting manicured, pedicured and spray tanned. The President looked like a man who had supported his own family and cut his own nails and spent the day touring the storm devastation in Florida.

At the end, when TeRAYza waddled onstage and endured yet another hug in that grimacing way (cute at 16, not so cute at 65) contrasted with the President's family coming onstage and gladly greeting their man - - don't think that very small thing doesn't resonate.

I'm crude enough to have noticed that the unfortunate pronunciation of the name "Putin" coming out of Kerry's tongue-darting mouth was not attractive in contrast with the President's more glamourous "Vladimir" first name basis with world leaders.

[rollo tomasi]

Reason Bush won: Kerry lied his botox butt off. The debate format needs to add a fact checker like ESPN does in PTI. After the debate, lies should be met by the truth and then have the candidate explain why they were making "facts" up.

[Toespi]

"America is not safer..."

I do not know why Bush did not jump on this.....he could have said, "Sen. Kerry, you are still standing here aren't you?"

[Graybeard58]

Less than one minute into the debate she rolled her eyes and said, "Gawwwwd, what an ass..."

My wife who isn't a political junkie either, upon seeing Kerry said, "He looks like he's dead."

[piperpilot]

I should also add that I am disappointed to see some of the spin coming out of the debates on our side. I read American Spectator on line every morning when I get into work, and every article this morning attempted to explain why Bush won. I never thought of AS as a bunch of Kool-Aid drinkers, but to say that Bush won the debate simply ignores the extremely poor performance of the President, and all our excuse-making and rationalization of the performance won't change the fact that it was bad. We need to be able to acknowledge it and outperform Kerry in every aspect going forward in order to make up for it. Am I being harsh? Absolutely. Do I need to be? Again, absolutely. This election is too important to lose. We are quite literally fighting for our lives in this election and we cannot afford to allow the Dims a single opportunity to get back in the game. The way I see it, the only result of this debate is that sKerry lives to fight another day.

[SuziQ]

I remember thinking that Jack Kemp would TOAST Al Gore and boy was I dissappointed.

I remember that one. I think Jack Kemp had been beaten over the head by the RINOS running the party that year into thinking that the Amercian people didn't want to see 'confrontation', so he reined in his personality and was just a bland, white-bread presence. That accomplished the impossible; he made Algore look good!

[i_dont_chat]

Did you notice that Kerry referred to our troops as "kids" at one point? It was not planned -- a slip, no doubt, but showed his true feelings.

Kerry thinks he is so superior and "above" all the rest of us.

He is an elitist/globalist/internationalist who wants to relegate the U.S. to the status of a third world country. imo

[Jaidyn]

He is an elitist/globalist/internationalist who wants to relegate the U.S. to the status of a third world country.

All the elitists, globalists and internationalists are already voting for him. The 'kids' in the military don't exist but the men and women in the military will vote for Bush, as will their families. Did you pick up on his talking about speaking out against Viet Nam and Iraq in the same sentence? That will hurt him, too, but I think he already ceded that loss, so will continue.

[BadAndy]

"My wife and I both thought this was an absolute horrible showing for the President."

Agreed. Whoever prepared him for this should be fired. He needed to demonstrate that Kerry was inconsistant on all the foreing policy issues. All he did was SAY he was inconsistant. Some examples would have been VERY effective. He should have highlighted Kerry's votes that would have weaken the military. Talk about how Kerry missed the intelligence briefings. Stress how he has demoralized the troops. Jeez it was painful to watch.

[Daveinyork]

yes, Kerry lied, stylishly.

[Revolutionary]

There was something here more than the debates. Kerry had to talk to all the people at the same time. No matter what he said, he was going to alienate a good portion of his potential voters. He tried the the wishy washy I am kind of for it and kind of against it. I think it achieved just the opposite of the desired effect and alienated most of his potential voters.

[silent_jonny]

Kerry looked like the kept, poofed, pampered paramour of a rich woman who had spent his day at the spa getting manicured, pedicured and spray tanned. The President looked like a man who had supported his own family and cut his own nails and spent the day touring the storm devastation in Florida.

That's one of the most accurate summaries I've seen. Thank you.

At the end, when TeRAYza waddled onstage and endured yet another hug in that grimacing way (cute at 16, not so cute at 65)

At the end, when TeRAYza waddled onstage and endured yet another hug in that grimacing way (cute at 16, not so cute at 65)

HAAAHAAAHAAAA!

[jimbo123]

http://www.foxnews.com/printer_friendly_story/0,3566,134152,00.html

JFK:

"With respect to Iran, the British, French, and Germans were the ones who initiated an effort without the United States, regrettably, to begin to try to move to curb the nuclear possibilities in Iran. I believe we could have done better."

"I think the United States should have offered the opportunity to provide the nuclear fuel, test them, see whether or not they were actually looking for it for peaceful purposes."

[NavyCanDo]

Good post, Thanks

I also caught the remark from Kerry saying to sway other countries to join us he would ask them what they needed from us. Now that shows real leadership....Not.

Bush had some missed opportunities to give a knock-down punch. The biggest one is when Kerry said Bush left the job of surching for Osama to some warlords, and deployed the troops instead to Iraq. Bush was silent in his reply. He should of came back and said tell that to the thousands of troops in Afghanistan, and then listed the divisions by name who are there or that have been there and give a list of their accomplishments. The non-answer Bush gave gave the impression that Kerry was right.

My nephew just returned from Afghanistan with the 501st PIR and believe me ther is lots going on there. Weapons are being uncovered, Followers of Osama are dying in battles or are being arrested, and Osama is hiding for his life.

[randita]

Kerry's shills today are going to be explaining today what Kerry meant by his "global test" comments. Bush said nothing of note that will be met with the same scrutiny.

Sometimes it takes a few days for the dust to settle on these things. Initial impressions are not always lasting ones.

Rush was right yesterday (as usual) when he said that the standard pundit response to the debate would be that Kerry acquitted himself well and that the race will now "tighten". I heard those comments at least a dozen times from various commentators.

[thegreatbeast]

I agree. Bush was awful last night. I couldn't bear to watch it. It was as though he was trying to remember talking points and was not being himself.

I agree with you. Bush missed a couple of opportunities to bury Kerry. When Kerry was grousing about France, Germany and Russia not being able to get contracts, why didn't Bush mention Oil for Food and the terrible scandal of their involvement? Bush did look tongue-tied repeating the same phrases over and over again. Bush could have done so much better.

[stopsign]

KERRY "FLIP FLOPS" IN DEBATE
Well I have come to realize in all of this confussion on who is "better" to lead this free world!!!
I have come to the realization that there is no one one better to lead us into victory other than our President Bush!!!
This hit me while I watched the Bush/Kerry debate...(3times get you )
Theses are the facts:
1. Bush did out debate Kerry (And gave the facts to back his words up).
2. And most important... Bush can clearly out drink Kerry...
In the debate Bush had taken 17 drinks of his water (ya right ) and if you noticed Bush only used his right hand... finishing off three glasses (the glass that Bush drank out of was a plain flat round water glass Kerry drank out of a wine glass).
While Kerry only took two drinks (Hehehehehe Well we all know about Kerry), one at the first of the debate... He picked up his wine glass with his left hand and quenched his thirst... Well later on in the debate Kerry took another drink ( I bet you can't guess what hand he used). This time picking up his wine/water glass with his right hand (Hehehe). Hummm... Haven't we heard this sound before... Flip Flop.
Kerry can't even decide which hand he want's to drink from...
Well I'm sold...President Bush can out debate, "Out drink" Kerry, and it only takes him one hand to get it done! I think that, that says it all.
God bless Texas and God bless America! : ) <<< me