Posted on 09/30/2004 8:17:23 PM PDT by ElRushbo
If there is any doubt what a Kerry win would mean to the investor class, you only have to look at the immediate 3 point break in the Overnight S&P 500 trade. The market broke 3 full points as soon as the media instant polls were reported showing a win for Kerry
Do you mean S&P futures?
12:44 S&P: September dividend increases rise 32.5% from 2003
As you know by now, the S&P is up strongly today (16 points already); 3 points was a blip and a sell-the-news reaction.
I heard somewhere that a Kerry win would be good short-term for the market. The reasons: probable reduction in costs to nation of waging wars; resumption of an unapologetic big-government / big-spending regime.
Yes, Bush has grown government a lot (and that's not good). But Kerry would usher into power a whole legion of people pushing for government participation in the economy; these new projects would lubricate and "benefit" big business, to everyone else's long-term detriment.
Vote Bush.
< sigh >
Ping me if you hear anything, I hope that he does this. I will be out for the rest of the day. Could be good news.
Care to comment?
Well... since he won't, I will post the following headline:
2:45 285 stocks hit 52-week highs on NYSE; 14 52-week lows
Did I hear correctly?
The Dow was up triple digits?
Hmmm.
I guess we know who won afterall.
Oooooooo... I like that DNC-BS!!!
That's a name that could stick.
You heard it right. We're definitely right where we were yesterday...and Kerry's still a 9.10 kind of a guy.
By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 4:02 PM ET Oct. 1, 2004
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Traders in political futures in two electronic markets are still betting big that President Bush will be re-elected, but his lead slipped Friday following his debate with Democratic challenger John Kerry.
Bush's prospects had soared on Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Market in the past month as Kerry fought off attacks on his military career and judgment about Iraq. Intrade saw odds of a Bush victory surpass 2-to-1 and the Iowa market odds exceeded 3-to-2..
On Friday, Bush popular-vote contracts on Intrade -- an Irish electronic market also known as Trade Sports -- fell two points to 60. Kerry popular-vote contracts were unchanged at 40.
On the Iowa Electronic Market at the University of Iowa, two Bush winner-takes-all contracts slipped to 62 on Friday from 68.4 a day earlier. The two Kerry contracts rallied to 38 from 32.5. On Tuesday, Bush contracts were selling for 70.
"Trading volume was extremely high over the last few days, indicating that traders see the debates as providing new information about the candidates," said Joyce Berg, the Iowa market's co-director and associate professor of accounting at the university.
Prices on the contracts in the two markets roughly correlate with the perceived odds of the candidate winning the national popular vote.
A separate contract at the Iowa market shows Bush's share of the vote now projected to be 51.5 percent, down from 53 percent on Thursday, with Kerry rising to 48.4 percent from 47 percent. This market is designed to project the actual share of the vote each candidate wins.
The Iowa market has predicted the winner of the popular vote over the past four elections within 1.37 percentage points on average, the university says.
The Iowa Electronic Market was founded in 1988. About 2,900 traders are involved in this year's political market, about three-fourths of them students, with $300,000 invested, said George McCrory, a spokesman for the market.
The Intrade market is vastly larger, but doesn't have the long track record that Iowa has.
The separate Bush electoral-vote contract on Intrade rose by 0.7 points to 65.2 on Friday, while Kerry's electoral vote contract rose by 0.3 points to 35.8. The market shows that traders believe the odds of a Bush victory are about 2-1.
Intrade also gives investors an opportunity to trade on each state's electoral votes. Bush futures fell slightly in battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, West Virginia and Wisconsin, but he's still projected by traders to win all those states.
Bush gained some ground in Michigan, but is still expected to lose there.
Thanks for the good news re dividends.
Remember all of the Girlie Gloomers and Doomers on Free Republic laughing at the dividends when GW pushed them through. I didn't laugh then, but everytime I get some great dividends, I laugh at their Girlie Stupidity.
The way as predicted on this thread, the S&P had a great day>OOOPs the predication was a downer day due to the terrible performance by GW last night. The market knew it.
Well here is how the S&P 500 index closed today:
S&P 500 SP500 10/1/2004
4:12:41 PM 1,131.50 +16.92 +1.52%
It went into the tank for a 1.52% increase.
Not everybody's buying into Kerry's blubbering bull spit, that's for sure!!!
LOL......interesting that FR was infiltrated with trolls and doomsayers last evening. It was the worst night on FR, ever!
The smart money still thinks Bush will win. Kerry needed to change the dynamics, and he didn't.
"Fox has been reporting time and time again that a Kerry win will be a disaster for the markets. Don't people hear this anywhere else?"
I frequently listen to the Bob Brinker financial show and he agrees that Bush's economic plan is good and Kerry's plan would just mess things up. He feels the tax cuts were a good thing and raising taxes for the wealthy is just a feel good for the poor and mid class.
Bob B. seems very nonpartison and I beleive he is not interested in the politics.
I know! It was enough to gag a maggot!!! The only prior time I can remember having been that bad on FR was during CA's historic Recall election and the out-right abandonment of the only righteous conservative in the field for a swingin celebrity who has already violated most of what he stated a Republican "is" at the latest Republican Convention!!!
HAPPY BIRTHDAY........and your commentary made it feel like it was my birthday.
I no longer listen unless Larry Kudlow is filling for Brinker.
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