Posted on 09/30/2004 8:17:23 PM PDT by ElRushbo
If there is any doubt what a Kerry win would mean to the investor class, you only have to look at the immediate 3 point break in the Overnight S&P 500 trade. The market broke 3 full points as soon as the media instant polls were reported showing a win for Kerry
Three points. That ain't much. I'm dubious about these things being connected.
that was 3 points on the S&P... in the middle of the night. thats not minor. when was last time S&P lost 3 points in the middle of the night?
Not Fox News. A few days ago their panel all agreed that a Kerry win would be a disaster for the market.
I was wondering about this. It will be interesting to see what happens today.
Fox News just had it reverse (one of the Cashin In guys was one). He said Wall Street will decide who won by it's movement.
If Wall Street goes up, the incumbent won the debate.
If Wall Street goes down, the candidate won the debate.
It makes more sense that way, as everyone knows uncertainty would bring down the market, and consistency would not.
Anyone - all of us included - that declare a winner in a political debate are only communicating what they thought before the debate started. In the case of the media, we know where they stand.
The S&P futures as of this morning (8:00 CDT) are up 4.4. The futures commonly vary more than this in a 24 hour period amd then resume close to the previous day's level.
so that means there was a 7+ point shift. is that normal?
Fox has been reporting time and time again that a Kerry win will be a disaster for the markets. Don't people hear this anywhere else?
Thanks for this post, Grampa Dave.
There you go making sense again! And thanks.
There has been no discernable movement on Bush 2004 at Tradesports.
Well, you blew that one on the opening.
Every index is positive except Gold/silver and Oil.
Things could change and will change during the day, but your gold bug theory about the S&P plummeting at the openeing went down in flames at the opening.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/markets/indexes.asp
Yes, depending on the volatility of the market. This would be a small change in a rapidly escalating or down market. If you want to believe 3 pts augurs for a diastrous President Bush showing, by all means do so. You might be better looking for something else more empirically based.
At 8:22 am PDT here is where the S&P 500 is:
S&P 500 SP500 10/1/2004
11:21:14 AM 1,129.27 +14.69 +1.32%
This thread is pretty irrelevant and immaterial, wouldn't you say? The markets look like the rocket contrail of somethin takin off out of Vandenburg AFB this morning... first, straight UP, then arching out over the pacific... As if a missle defense system were about to take out an ICBM!!!
What a beautiful sight on my birthday!!!
Much better than all the weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth I saw on FR before bedtime last night!!! Talk about a bunch of irrational expectations on one thread in particular... WOW!!!
You'da thought that since Dubya didn't launch a withering, vicious, devastating partisan and personal attack against the traitorus challenger, that the entire history of the United States was on the ash-heap of history! OMG, it was awful!!! (snort!)
I heard Brit Hume say that the Democrats were winning the post debate spin and that he was going to explain the reason, but my husband turned the channel. I'm fairly sure that he was going to explain the predebate mass emails that Terry McAwful put out.
Happy 100 th birthday, you old wasp.
Catch one of my replies re how GW just stood back and let Kerry Ratherize America for 2/3's of the debate so we could have all of his Rathers on tape and for showing the truth.
Free Republic is infected with doomers and gloomers claiming to be conservatives. Conservatives are not doomers and gloomers. Gold bugs, Perorats and those who hate America are the gloomers and doomers. They look for the negative of anything, and if nothing negative happens they Rather about it.
By the way apparently Kerry got a wink form his butt boy liberal moderator last night after the debate. There is no doubt that Kerry had seen the questions before the debate.
What they don't understand is... NOBODY WINS DEBATES!!! The only reason for these media events is to make it possible for somebody to blow it somewhere in the process!!! Nobody really "blew it" last night, so in the end it was a draw and that's GOOD!!! What win elections is NOT debates, but how comfortable the people are with either candidate by the time they vote!!!
That's why the markets are such a good indicator as investors, both big and small, are a grand meter of people's comfort levels with an expectation of future comfort levels with one, or the other. They don't want someone that's "going to change the world," because they hate change and consider it a discomfort anyway they look at it!!!
Human nature is very predictable! History proves this repeatedly!!! I know you know all this, however, as you are MUCH older than I am, Mr. Methusalah! (smirk!)
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