Posted on 09/26/2004 10:05:36 PM PDT by RWR8189
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices pushed above $49 a barrel on Monday, approaching record levels as worries about the stability of supplies from Iraq, Nigeria and Russia compounded concerns over low fuel stocks ahead of winter.
U.S. light crude climbed to a session high at $49.36 a barrel, up 48 cents and just 4 cents below the all-time intraday peak set in late August at $49.40.
At 10:38 p.m. EDT Sunday, U.S. oil was 32 cents higher at $49.20.
Oil was driven higher last week by a big dip in U.S. oil stockpiles, at a time when inventories should be building ahead of winter months.
Dealers shrugged off as too little some loans of oil to refiners from U.S. emergency stockpiles.
Clashes in Saudi Arabia between security forces and suspected al Qaeda members at the weekend, along with continued attacks on oil infrastructure in Iraq, have heightened concerns over the potential for a severe disruption to crude flows from the Middle East.
Rebels in Nigeria, Africa's top oil exporter, said at the weekend they would extend an uprising across the country's entire oil-producing southern delta, where Royal Dutch/Shell has evacuated more than 200 staff from two oilfields due to increasing violence.
And there is still uncertainty over the stability of supplies from YUKOS, Russia's top exporter, after the company's battle against bankruptcy led to hiccups in output and deliveries last week.
LITTLE LEEWAY FOR DISRUPTON
"All these factors create apprehension in the market and reinforces the view that we're on a knife's edge in terms of supply and demand," said Daniel Hynes, industry analyst at ANZ Bank in Melbourne.
"The uncertainties heighten the risk premium applied to this market. Another move to test the $49.40 could well happen this week."
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday that non-commercial crude speculators on the New York Mercantile Exchange doubled their net long positions to 26,742 in the week to Sept. 21, in a bet that oil prices would rise. That likelihood was bolstered after Hurricane Ivan thrashed through the Gulf of Mexico, delaying oil shipments and disrupting offshore production.
Global supplies are straining to meet the fastest growth in oil demand in 24 years. World crude output is close to its limits with only the top exporter, Saudi Arabia, holding any significant spare capacity of about 1 million barrels per day (bpd).
The OPEC producers' cartel, which controls more than half of global crude exports, is producing close to 30 million bpd, the highest level since the late 1970s.
Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah said on Saturday that OPEC had done all it could to cool prices.
"The increase in prices is not due to a supply shortage but concern that supplies are not stable," Attiyah told reporters.
NIGERIAN ATTACKS
Nigerian rebel leader Mujahid Dokubo-Asari said on Sunday that his militia would attack facilities and personnel of Italian firm Agip, a unit of ENI, which he accused of lending helicopters to the Nigerian military. Agip denied the allegation.
Nigeria is the fifth-biggest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, with an output of roughly 2.4 million bpd.
The rebels want to force political reforms or gain sovereignty for the impoverished Niger delta. Last year's uprising by members of the Ijaw tribe forced the temporary closure of 40 percent of the country's output.
In Iraq, insurgents fired mortar bombs at the Oil Ministry building on Saturday, causing minor damage but no injuries, in the latest attack on the country's vital industry.
Engineers have fixed a main oil export pipeline in the north of the country, which has been down since it was blown up on Sept. 2, but flows through the line had yet to restart by Friday.
Saboteurs attacked another pipeline feeding an oil refinery at Baiji, but so far exports through the main southern terminals appeared to be running normally at about 1.9 million bpd.
Yeah, but we went to war for cheap oil!
Maybe there will be some investment in infrastructure by the exporters and exploration by the West. When it's not profitable then there is no incentive.
That's been my rebuttal. As soon as some Dem spits out that "war for oil" crap I say "Don't ya think if we had gone for the oil we'd have it by now? Wouldn't gas be cheaper than $1.96 a gallon???" They never have a response.
So why isn't gasoline $3.00/gallon?
The statistics given are comprehensively irrelevant unless inflation is factored in.
"Wouldn't gas be cheaper than $1.96 a gallon???"
I WISH it was only $1.96 a gallon
Been paying $2.13 in Bandon OR for at least 2 months now.
Bandon Dunes, Bandon? Didn't realize you were there.
Not sure why you poor folks on the west coast may so much for gas. Just ridiculous out there. Just barely over 1.80 here.
Yep, that be where I live!
cheap oil!v cheap oil! cheap oil! cheap oil! cheap oil! cheap oil! cheap oil! cheap oil! .............Screw the middle East let's dig where it counts!!!
Cool! A few people from my office went down to check out the success/design etc of Bandon Dunes, as it may be copied here in the Pacific North West.
We pay more because more "mixes" are required. Sometimes even cities get into the regulating. Though there is gas available, there isn't any of the specific mix allowed in that area. It is truly stupid and the libs are up to their necks in creating the BS. That is one part of the problem.
Check my FR Profile page
Webcam of Bandon there
(Day use only)
I paid $1.78 today.
"The statistics given are comprehensively irrelevant unless inflation is factored in."
Also the value of the dollar in the forex markets, which is one element of the rise in dollar-priced commodities in the last 2 years or so, such as oil and gold.
Obviously there are other factors at work as well, particularly in the oil mkt. I wonder how much the 'terror premium' is estimated to be now.
From what I understand gas futures determine the price of gas, not the oil price directly. So there can be a real lag between gas and oil.
So when people complain oil has come down but gas hasn't, there may be other factors involved. One is the lack of refining capacity worldwide. They can barely refine it as quick as the oil is produced.
At the moment it is the opposite. Oil is climbing, and at least where I am, gas hasn't moved for a couple months. This is simply because no one believes the oil prices are here to stay at these high levels.
Something to consider for those that suggest oil prices should be regulated, the United States produces oil and those workers, companies, and states benefit from rising oil prices. Anyways, I guess that's another argument for another day.

The truck gets just seven miles-per-gallon of diesel.
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