Another thread was just posted with Fox News internals. Roughly, they sample Democrats at ~41%, Republicans at ~35%. My own preference would be to see those roughly equal.
Posted on 09/23/2004 3:19:19 PM PDT by Tribemike
I don't understand the FOX poll at all. It shows just a 2 point lead for Bush in a two-way race and a 4 point lead in a three-way race.
BUT, it shows just a plurality of men prefer Bush (48%) to Kerry (43%). What men? Girlie men ???? Heck, Bush beat Gore among men by 15 points...you are telling me he only leads against the sissified ticket of Kerry-Edwards by 5 points???
I think Bush is nearly even with women in this poll.
Also, it shows Bush leading among veterens just 50% - 40%...this is even more difficult to believe. I have seen several polls where Bush leads among vets by 20 points.
Anyone else have an opinion on this?
Yes, very hard to believe. 50% to 40% w/ vets?! No way.
http://mysterypollster.typepad.com/
That site has a lot of useful insights.
Basically, you need to look at bunch of polls, and understand the margin of error as well as Political ID analysis.
Moreover, it is the battleground polls that matter, not nationwide polls.
Another thread was just posted with Fox News internals. Roughly, they sample Democrats at ~41%, Republicans at ~35%. My own preference would be to see those roughly equal.
If a Fox poll showed a large Bush lead like some of the other polls, the pundits would write it off as being a pro-Bush poll from a right-wing network.
In reality, this Fox poll may be good for the President in that it reiterates the need to continue campaigning hard all the way through the election. Right now, complacency may be our worst enemy.
In all honesty, I think FOX is trying to play it safe so that IF the race does come down to the wire their polls will be revered and be highly creditable in the future! That's how Zogby made his fortune in 00(thanks to Rush who gave him wide exposure on his radio show when Zogby was a nobody)!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1225140/posts talks about this.
They're oversampling Democrats for some reason.
They are oversampling Democrats because supposedly Democrats outvoted Republicans 39-35% in the 2000 election. That was pre-9/11 and I think Republicans are more energized now...
Does anyone know if Opinion Dynamics weights for party affiliation? I suspect that they do, but I don't know for a fact that they do.
Those are the people who answered the phone. I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to Gallup at this stage of the race, based on their long track record.
I believe the popular vote will be close. The electoral vote, however, is going to be strong Bush.
Simple Question: Which candidate's supporters are more likely to lie about being veterans? President Bush's or Senator Kerry's? That answer alone should give insight into the skewed veterans data.
People (the responders) say the thing that comes to their minds. People lie. People say things to please the questioner. People say things to displease the questioner. Get it?
(The cat has a bit of personal experience with the subject, but no time today to relate it.)
I have the opinion we shouldn't even care about polls!
The only one that counts is Nov 2.
The others are just wishful thinking. Not enough people involved to make a true statement.
Just ignore them.
It just might be. A CBS poll has him up by 8. LOL
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