Doh!
Posted on 09/22/2004 10:06:51 AM PDT by Area Freeper
A trained nuclear engineer using material the size of an orange could build an atomic bomb to fit into a van, proliferation expert Laura Holgate said, sketching a nightmare scenario of a terrorist attack on a major city.
She recalled that terrorists had attacked the World Trade Center in New York in 1993 with a van loaded with conventional explosives.
Holgate told reporters at a meeting in Vienna of the UN nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it was "not widely shared and understood" how risky the current situation is, especially since terrorists would not necessarily need top-level scientists to build a bomb.
The nuclear threat remains the big one, and all too real, said Holgate, a senior member of the Washington-based Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) think tank and a former US Department of Energy (news - web sites) official for disposal of plutonium.
She said the "raw material for nuclear terrorism is housed in hundreds of facilities in dozens of countries and inadequately secured."
"That's the central point of the Global Threat Reduction Initiative" which the United States and Russia have launched to repatriate highly enriched uranium (HEU) and to convert nuclear research reactors from HEU to low enriched uranium (LEU) use.
"We know nuclear theft is happening already," she said, saying that one institute in Russia has documented "23 attempts over eight years to steal nuclear bomb-making materials."
"We know these failed. We don't know how many succeeded and went undetected," Holgate said.
She also said she did not think terrorists had yet a nuclear weapon. "If terrorist organizations had been able to do this (obtain one), they would have used it by now," Holgate said.
The stakes are high.
"A nuclear device going off in any large city around the globe is going to kill millions of people," she said.
"The economic damage can be in the trillions (of dollars) and it can also be global," she said.
"This is in contrast to a dirty-bomb threat that tends to be hyped," she said about concern that terrorists could use conventional bombs with radioactive materials, contaminating areas with radiation rather than destroying them with the blast of an atomic bomb.
Holgate said a problem in making sure that nuclear materials are not lying where terrorists can get them is that there is "lack of acceptance" within the Russian government that "their material is not adequately secured and that there is a relationship between terrorism and these materials."
But she said the Russians seemed to be more aware of the threat since the Beslan school tragedy and a recognition of "weaknesses" in the Russian system, due to bribes and poor security.
The United States and Russia have produced most of the highly radioactive material now spread throughout the world.
Holgate said the United States and the then-Soviet Union gave out 20 tonnes of HEU in the 1950s and 1960s as part of the Atoms for Peace program for the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.
"Keeping track of where this HEU is now kilogram by kilogram is difficult." she said.
In addition, over 1,000 tonnes were created by the United States and the Soviet Union for their weapons programs, and there is no minute accounting for this.
William Potter, from the Monterey Institute of International Studies, a California-based think tank, said that in addition the Soviet Union and now Russia have some seven icebreaker ships which use nuclear fuel enriched to about 60 percent, Potter said.
HEU is uranium enriched to over 20 percent, but weapons grade uranium starts at 80 percent enrichment for the U-235 isotope.
Holgate said terrorists could do without the sophistication needed for small bombs. "A truck size is probably a more relevant size," since such a bomb could be made with lower levels of HEU.
A nuclear attack on an American city will cause a world wide economic crash. This will lead to ethnic warfare in Europe. Muslims will be persecuted on a scale not seen since Hitler tried to exterminate the Jews.
The UN will cease to exist.
Israel will conquer the mideast.
Japan will become allied with South Korea and conquer the north. China will be defeated by Taiwan with US and Russian help.
The world will be completely changed, but not in the way Islam prays for.
Judging by Dick Morris, it is very possible to hate Bill Clinton and still be a Rat.
True....
What is most disturbing in my mind is that triggering devices are designed safety in mind.
They enable the DROPPER to get far enough away NOT to be destroyed by the device..
You don't need much of a trigger if the DROPPER is willing to go up with the device..
One could trigger a nuclear event just by pushing two sub critical masses together...then boom
The Great Depression of 1929 would seam like a walk in the park compare to what America and the rest of dependent on it world would face.
Looking at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, I would guess you could expect a 50% fatality rate within the blast radius.
True enough, but Marcinko make's it pretty clear he hates surrender monkeys.
Think about that scenario (gun-type fission weapon). Not only does that require some fancy equipment (albeit nothing like a fusion weapon), but the dropper is going to be moving around a rather lethal amount of nuclear material. Unless these guys build a shield for the core, which would make it quite large, you are going to basically have a bomb that will kill its handlers in short order. But I am just theorizing. Let me ping some people for input.
That makes 2 of us!!!
I think we should let it be known that 30 minutes after a nuclear detonation on American soil caused by muslim terrorists,.... Mecca, Medina, Riyad, and Cairo cease to exist........
Perhaps...
But, the MSM would immediately try to downplay such an incident. After all, it is our fault because we supported Israel and invaded Iraq.
I don't think nearly that high, Dead. The buildings of Manhattan are far, FAR stronger than both of thos cities. They would serve to contain alot of the blast and heat. If I remember correctly, H and N went up like matchsticks due to everything being built of bamboo/wood. That kind of flash fire wouldn't happen as rapidly in a modern city.
If you like Tom Clancy books, The Sum of all Fears is a great book about jihadistan getting thier hands on a nuke and bringing it to the US. I refused to watch the movie due to the major plot change from arab terrorists to white supremists (or whatever non-arab group hollywierd changed it to.)
Doh!
This would definitely kill a million people. Set it off in midtown Friday afternoon rush. It would be devestating.
Good point. The bottom line is, they aren't the end of the world, Just EXTREAMLY bad.
Extremely ;*), indeed.
That may have been made clear, privately, to the appropriate parties, and that may be why an attack has been prevented so far. Developing a nuke is something that usually requires the resources of a country, and the likely suspects may have already been told we will shoot first and ask questions later.
even worse than my spelling.
Also, assuming a ground burst, the fallout and contamination would be impossible to clean up, and Manhattan, (or where ever) would have to be abandoned, think Chernobyl, only 1000 times worse.
The UN will cease to exist.
Israel will conquer the mideast.
Japan will become allied with South Korea and conquer the north. China will be defeated by Taiwan with US and Russian help.
The world will be completely changed, but not in the way Islam prays for.
Is that you Mr. Clancy?
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