New Polls from Mason-Dixon; Bush leads in Iowa, Oregon, New Mexico and Wisconsin

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ ^

[Nascardude]

Iowa

Bush 48 Kerry 42

New Mexico

Bush 47 Kerry 43

Oregon

Bush 47 Kerry 43

Wisconsin

Bush 46 Kerry 44

Pennsylvania

Kerry 45 Bush 44

Michigan

Kerry 47 Bush 41

[B Knotts]

Goli Ameri. I don't know too much about that race, but I heard that the Libertarian Party candidate dropped out and endorsed Goli.

I think she stands an outside chance, but that's a tough district for Republicans.

A better shot at a GOP pickup would be the Darlene Hooley seat, IMO.

I don't think there have been any public polls on these.

[connectthedots]

Gore won by about 6000 votes. Nader also got about 5%.

To look at it another way, Gore wone by about three votes per church in the state of Oregon. There have been massive voter registration drives in Oregon churches and with a constitutional amendment to ban homosexual marriage on the ballot, Christians will vote in very large numbers. Oregon should go to Bush.

[BigKahuna]

Ah, yes.....Wyden and Smith. How many electoral votes does the state have? I agree with the marriage issue thing, btw. That's got to be huge draw for the Republicans in that state.

I just think, given everything else going on, and the fact that Dems are more united by dislike of Bush rather than attraction to Kerry, that Bush is probably going to win by a bigger margin than is currently forecast.

With national security issues gaining more of a grip on voter psyches, I don't see how someone would pull a ballot lever and vote to, in effect, change horses right in the middle of the stream :-) Most people interviewed seem to have a lot more confidence in Bush when it comes to dealing with external threats than they do in Kerry, for sure.

[NeoCaveman]

Bush nearly won Oregon in 2000. Came a few thousand votes short.

But Nader got 5% there last time. This brings up a question....Is Nader on the ballot out there this time?

[Dan from Michigan]

Michigan will tighten up in the end. Even Granholm who was supposed to win by 13% won by only 4%.

It will depend on turnout if Bush wins or not, and no one will win by more than 5%.

[Dan from Michigan]

Ann Arbor is bad, but only a small-mid size city of 110,000.

Detroit and Flint are worse.

[ride the whirlwind]

I WANT Michigan, just for the heck of it. I want a total Bush sweep of the midwest. Nothing but coasts for the ultra-lefties.

I want MI for GWB too. He's been here fighting for it but it looks like it'll take a miracle. But then, I believe in miracles!

[Dan from Michigan]

I'm an operations director for a major airline, and I helped run ops at the Detroit airport, and let me tell you...pretty much without exception, every union-represented employee of ours hated and despised Bush with a passion that was scary.

Romulus is one of the most dem suburbs in the area. The airport is mostly run by Boss McNamara(runs Wayne County) and his buddies.

In fact, and as someone here has already said, Detroit/Ann Arbor and Flint/Saginaw are so strongly straight-ticket voting Democrat, that I can't see how Bush can overcome it in the rest of the state. Unless voter apathy with Kerry is sufficient enough to discourage a high turnout for him in the Detroit area.

Saginaw County is treading somewhat conservative outside of the city. If things go great, Bush could make it 50/50 there and Bay County since there are a lot of social conservatives there.

If West Michigan, Western and Northern Oakland, North Macomb, and Livingston County turn out heavy, there's a shot, especially if Wayne County stays home.

[BigKahuna]

It says something that you're right about. She's the only Democratic holder of a statewide office in Michigan. What, the Attorney General is Republican, as is the Sec'y of State, not to mention that both houses in the Legislature are Republican-dominated.

Both U.S. senators (Levin and Stabenow) are Democrat. Stabenow got trounced by Abraham in the outstate areas, but she made up for it in the Detroit/Flint/Saginaw precincts. And Posthumus nearly pulled off the upset to overcome the Detroit political machine. But, I don't think we're going to see that kind of Democrat voter turnout this election cycle, though. Kerry seems to leave most of 'em cold, and I don't believe animus towards GWB will be enough to motivate many of them to go to the polls. And Michigan has a marriage amendment on the ballot, too, I think.

[Edmund Burke]

But you got to admit, it's a hell of a lot better town than Columbus.

[B Knotts]

Oregon has 7 electoral votes; Washington 11.

[The Old Hoosier]

Surveys consistently find that if Nader hadn't been on the ballot, many of the Naderites wouldn't have voted, and--surprisingly--that a significant minority of them would have voted for Bush.

[Republican Wildcat]

Oregon? Wow.

[NeoCaveman]

Surveys consistently find that if Nader hadn't been on the ballot, many of the Naderites wouldn't have voted, and--surprisingly--that a significant minority of them would have voted for Bush.

Nader will get the Buchanan voters this time, just a semi-educated guess. I've seen enough polls where Nader takes from Bush to belive this.

It's better NOT to have Nader on the ballot because it brings out lefties who wouldn't other wise vote and as we saw in 2000 it cost us 4 Senate seats. Of course it did tilt Florida and NH presidentially, so it was good for us in 2000.

[NeoCaveman]

And Michigan has a marriage amendment on the ballot, too, I think.

We have it in Ohio too. Go issue One.

[Krodg]

And how pray tell, are they going to keep the dem plants to a minimum?

Let's see...perhaps you'll have a flat tire???

[Irish Eyes]

Thanks, I heard that it was a good poll. I do remember now it was something about Florida.

[Salvation]

Oregon Ping

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[Coffee_drinker]

This will really PO my liberal brother who lives in Portland. Hehehe

Yes it will, and all the rest of the Portland liberals. :)

[Salvation]

**This will really PO my liberal brother who lives in Portland. Hehehe**

Many of us outside Moscow, errrrrr, I mean Multnomah County are voting for Bush.

I've been working the phone bank in Mation County and we have gotten many more "Yes, I will support President Bush in November" replies than the negative ones. (Although I had someone tell me last night that I was bound for H ---- for supporting Bush. (It does get interesting once in awhile! LOL!)