Posted on 09/13/2004 4:51:17 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 98.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 82.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 80.0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 10.0 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 78.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 6.5 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 16.0 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 62.0 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 96.5 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 10.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 96.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 11.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 96.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 43.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Kansas | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 92.5 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 93.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 28.9 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 15.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 3.0 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 32.0 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 41.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 77.1 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 63.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 41.0 | 0 | 4 |
| New Jersey | 17.0 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 40.0 | 0 | 5 |
| New York | 8.0 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 86.0 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 71.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 97.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 60.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Pennsylvania | 43.4 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 95.0 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 79.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 98.0 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 7.5 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 86.0 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 25.0 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 75.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 58.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Wyoming | 97.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 291 | 247 |
Sorry, not buying it. Some states pay a lot less in federal taxes than they get back, and most of those states are red states - Montana, West Virginia, Mississippi, North Dakota. There are other blue states in this list as well, but the list is predominantly rural states that live off of government subsidies.
By contrast, blue states like Connecticut, New Jersey and New Hampshire get the least back compared to what they pay. Blue states, all. Again, there are exceptions but by and large the northeastern states (blue, msotly) pay way more than they get back.
Oh thats such an exaggeration. There's no way you can compare the commercial presence (big tax revenues for uncle sam, cha-ching!) of a New York City or Los Angeles to Wichita, Kansas.
In any case, was that a yes or a no to my question?
Check Oregon: I currently see a 38% chance of Bush winning, which under this methodology would put those 7 votes in Kerry's column.
Do you really want to compared welfare subsidies to the urban poor in blue America to the agro-subsidies to not so poor farmers in red America?
In the immortal words of some chick on TV - "don't go there" ;-)
I think Kerry knows he could be in for a beating as bad as Dukakis in 1988. Everyone talks about the Dems being riled up to vote against Bush, but I haven't seen the GOP base this fired up since the Reagan days. I don't think any of us should be overconfident or become complacent, but the Dems are starting to act in a resigned fashion the way we did in 1992 and 1996 when we knew by September of those elections that Bush 41 and Dole were done.
Last I checked today it was over 67
Not for Oregon (which is what I was referring to). Oregon is back at 37-40.
Sorry, I missed the context.
Must have more coffee ....
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