2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/13/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, September 13, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[jdege]

Date	Prob. Bush Win	Mean EVs	Std. Dev.
01/21	96.8%	341.5	41.1
01/26	95.5%	334.8	40.6
02/02	92.2%	323.8	39.7
02/09	83.0%	307.8	40.3
02/16	78.4%	300.4	39.4
02/23	76.2%	298.2	39.6
03/01	74.5%	295.9	39.3
03/08	68.0%	289.2	39.8
03/15	68.0%	288.8	39.0
03/22	68.5%	289.3	38.8
03/29	69.4%	290.1	38.8
04/05	71.2%	292.3	39.1
04/12	70.4%	290.6	38.1
04/19	68.6%	288.1	36.7
04/26	64.9%	284.5	36.3
05/03	66.3%	285.7	36.3
05/10	65.6%	285.3	36.8
05/17	65.2%	284.8	36.6
05/24	60.0%	280.3	36.9
05/31	61.1%	281.2	36.8
06/07	60.5%	280.6	36.5
06/14	65.0%	285.0	36.6
06/21	63.9%	284.0	36.8
06/28	58.4%	278.8	36.7
07/05	58.7%	279.1	36.7
07/12	53.1%	274.2	36.5
07/19	48.2%	269.8	35.7
07/26	43.4%	265.6	35.0
08/02	42.1%	264.3	34.7
08/09	42.9%	265.2	34.5
08/16	42.6%	264.9	34.2
08/23	41.8%	264.3	34.5
08/30	56.1%	276.4	35.0
09/06	65.0%	284.1	35.0
09/13	73.7%	291.5	34.2

[Future Useless Eater]

>>I am also very hopeful the GOP can pick up IA, MN, NM, and maybe PA.

Wouldn't MI and OR be more likely? I believe those two both
have marriage amendments and Nader on their ballots.

[inquest]

Found this on Google Image Search.

[upchuck]

Thanks for the ping!

[airborne]

I have it in my files but STILL haven't learned how to post pictures.

[airborne]

See if this works. (Test of posting skill in progress)

http://www.msnusers.com/jupqq1g9f2coqgitlfih2pkgo7/Documents/Pictures%2Felectionmap.jpg

[airborne]

I DID IT! WOOOOHOOOO!!!

[Signalman]

Can someone explain to me what they're reporting at:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Over there, Kerry is leading in electoral votes 269-233, which contradicts every other electoral vote analysis I've reviewed. Are they delusional or just completely biased?

[tjwmason]

Can someone explain to me what they're reporting at:

They are providing a prediction of each state's result on the basis of the opinion polls taken in that state. This has a few problems, first it uses only state-polls which are less common than national ones, thus many of the data are old (hold the cursor over a state and it will say the poll on which the prediction is made, several polls are from August, a British P.M. said a week is a long time in politics, so I would hold little faith in these data).

Secondly, the great superiority of this system is that it does not go near opinion polls; rather it measures the 'bets' which people are placing on the President or Sen. Kerry winning each state; historically these data have been more reliable, especially when there is a long while until voting.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

Southern New Hampshire and up the Connecticut River Valley has gone Democratic.

Interestingly, that would be parts of the state mostly inhabited by natives. The Masshole immigrants are down in the Manchester-Nashua area for commuting purposes. Yet that is the more conservative part of the state.

[tjwmason]

Adding to previous message.

It is also quite possibly the sick fantasy of the site-owner. That site is covered with some of the most grotesque bias I have seen, the 'non-partisan' pages (so called by the owner) show a very clear leaning towards Kerry, I did not even bother to see what the 'pro-Kerry' pages were like. The owner states that he is a Kerry supporter but that he has 'bent over backwards' to be objective; I suspect that he bent over so far that the blood rushed to his head, and he could not see his own bias.

To his credit, he does link to a similar site which he states has horrendous Republican bias http://www.electionprojection.com/ which has Bush on 285 College Votes and 51.1% of the popular vote.

[plushaye]

That's one of my favorite sites:

www.electionprojection.com

Scott is honest with his number crunching which is why the President's EV's were down for a few months. Happily his EV's are back in 'win' territory now.

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

JOHN KERRY
CLICK HERE TO SIGN FORM 180

BUSH SIGNED FORM 180

WHAT ARE YOU HIDING?
WHAT IS YOUR SECRET?
WHAT DON'T YOU WANT
AMERICA AND THE PRESS TO KNOW?

E-Mail this story AND links to the media today.

John Kerry directly contributed to the lies of the anti war movement AND caused deaths and injuries
to US Military serving in Vietnam AND
directly caused deaths from injuries at home AND countless suicides because of his false testimony.

John Kerry is not fit to be elected dog catcher let alone President of the United States.
ANYONE who votes for Kerry AFTER knowing this data
is guilty of covering up John Kerry's war crimes!

John Kerry, director of the Vietnam Veterans against the War,
testified before special session the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
April 22, 1971

KERRY GAVE TESTIMONY BASED UPON FALSE INFORMATION
THAT KERRY KNEW AHEAD OF TIME TO BE FALSE!



September 6, 2004 -- **BREAKING** In Yesterday's Lies: Steve Pitkin and the Winter Soldiers, Scott Swett tells the story of a former VVAW member and participant in the Winter Soldier Investigation who states that John Kerry and others pressured him to give false testimony about American atrocities in Vietnam. After more than 33 years, Pitkin is the first Winter Soldier "witness" to file a legal affadavit regarding that event...

My name is Steve Pitkin, age 20, from Baltimore. I served with the 9th Division from May of '69 until I was airvaced in July of '69. I'll testify about the beating of civilians and enemy personnel, destruction of villages, indiscriminate use of artillery, the general racism and the attitude of the American GI toward the Vietnamese. I will also talk about some of the problems of the GIs toward one another and the hassle with officers.

-- Steve Pitkin, Winter Soldier Investigation, February 1, 1971.

E-Mail and/or fax these url's to EVERYONE ASAP! Kerry MUST be exposed NOW!
PUT PRESSURE ON THE MEDIA TO COVER THIS BEFORE NOV 2nd

Steve Pitkin Story

http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=YesterdaysLies1

Steve Pitkin Affadavit, August 31, 2004

http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=PitkinAff

Steve Pitkin DD-214

http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/graphics/PitkinDD214.jpg

Steve Pitkin WSI testimony

http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=PitkinWSI

Steve Pitkin WSI video clips -- February 1, 1971 (4:16, 1.6MB)

http://www.wintersoldier.com/video/pitkin2.wmv

John F. Kerry
Timeline of a traitor.
Click Here

http://www.archive-news.net/Kerry/JK_timeline.html

Guide to Local Media
Locate media in your zip code, gives you links to YOUR local media with phone, e-mail etc info.

Free Internet Fax Service
Free E-Mail to Fax from your computer, just fill in form on page , they do the rest.
Make sure you enter fax # like this 12025551212 (no spaces or -)

Is the number you want them to SEND FREE FAX covered?

Complete list of areas they SEND FREE FAXES to

Kerry's disrespect in 1971 to USA Symbols Video

Windows Media .......... Real Player .......... Quick Time .......... AOL

Ramsey Clark to Join Panel for Saddam’s Defense
arabnews press release 25 August 2004
NOTE :
Ramsey Clark is pictured below with Kerry and
Vietnam phony vet Al Hubbard
Who was head of the
Vietnam Veterans Against the War movement.


Al Hubbard Sgt., 22 Troop Carrier Squadron Aug. ’65-June ’66
- Al Hubbard, proven fraud who never set foot in Viet Nam.
The only Vietnamese he ever met was
when he was collaborating with the North Vietnamese in Paris
on the American Communist Party's nickel.

John Kerry's explanation:
"He (Hubbard) simply exaggarated his particular position.
But nobody knew it at the time. And those things happen."

Free online version of
Kerry's "The New Soldier"
You can read it online right now.

Kerry hopes everyone
in the USA gets this book!

NEW:
“Without question,
we were held captive longer
because of the anti-war people,
the Kerrys, the Fondas and Haydens,
the names we knew over there -
they encouraged the enemy to hang on.”
Excerpt from “Stolen Honor” website
- Leo Thorsness
Former Vietnam POW
CLICK HERE

Jane Fonda tells the student audience at the Michigan State University in 1969:

"I would think that if you understood what communism was, you would hope,
you would pray on your knees, that we would someday become communist."


Joe Moore, Can Tho Airfield 550th Signal Company

Copy and paste the links to everyone you know.

Steve Pitkin Affadavit, August 31, 2004

http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=PitkinAff

John F. Kerry Timeline of a traitor

http://www.archive-news.net/Kerry/JK_timeline.html

Kerry's disrespect in 1971
to USA Symbols Video

Windows Media
http://swift3.he.net/~swift3/medals.wmv

Real Player
http://swift3.he.net/~swift3/medals.rm

Quick Time
http://swift3.he.net/~swift3/medals.mov

AOL
http://swift3.he.net/~swift3/medals.mpg

Send this url for the online "The New Soldier" version

http://ejsmithweb.com/fr/newsoldier/

Send this url for the Stolen Honor website

http://www.stolenhonor.com/

[connectthedots]

There seems to be a trader or two on TradeSports.com that are very optimistic about Oregon.

Initiative for a constitutional amendment to ban homosexual marriage wikk be on ballot and Gore won oregon by an average of just three votes per church. Major effort to register Christians in many churches in the state.

Optimism is not unwarranted.

[Momaw Nadon]

Thanks jdege!

[Optimist]

Initiative for a constitutional amendment to ban homosexual marriage

In Missouri a vote for a constitutional amendment banning passed with over 70%, and turned out an incumbent governor who knew he would have NO chance in winning with it on the ballot in November... he just didnt count on all those people crossing over to vote him out in the primary.

[AM2000]

... such a small portion of America ...

It's not such a "small portion" when you realize that our form of government is one vote per person, not one vote per square mile :-)

[airborne]

You are correct, but high density population areas are typically where vote fraud is likely to occur. It's also, coincidentally, Democratic voter majorities.
Voter fraud negates the "one man, one vote" principle.

[inquest]

It's not such a "small portion" when you realize that our form of government is one vote per person, not one vote per square mile

Actually, it's based on both, although much more strongly the former. But regardless, it is still somewhat disturbing that, despite the numerical count, people in small pockets of the country have such a large sway over people scattered over the rest of the country. Consider two factors: first, the people in the red portions are far more productive, and do far more to keep the country and government afloat, than people in the blue portions, many of whom subsist off the government. And secondly, the people in the blue portions are continually fed all kinds of malicious ignorance about the red portions.

[Right Wing Professor]

Maine and Michigan (especially) are good buys. I'm also tempted by New Jersey at 17. In general, Bush states are underpriced compared with the overall total (which currently has Bush at 63)