Posted on 09/13/2004 4:51:17 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 98.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 82.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 80.0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 10.0 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 78.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 6.5 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 16.0 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 62.0 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 96.5 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 10.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 96.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 11.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 96.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 43.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Kansas | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 92.5 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 93.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 28.9 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 15.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 3.0 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 32.0 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 41.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 77.1 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 63.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 41.0 | 0 | 4 |
| New Jersey | 17.0 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 40.0 | 0 | 5 |
| New York | 8.0 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 86.0 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 71.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 97.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 60.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Pennsylvania | 43.4 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 95.0 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 79.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 98.0 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 7.5 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 86.0 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 25.0 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 75.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 58.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Wyoming | 97.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 291 | 247 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 291 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 247 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 291.47 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/6/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/30/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
I'd add PA, IA and MN before OR.
And NH, too.
There seems to be a trader or two on TradeSports.com that are very optimistic about Oregon.
Right now, the bid price for Oregon is 37.0 and the ask price is 42.0.
I just report the numbers. You decide what to make of them.
I would just wish that he would get over 320 EC votes to shut the Dems up. . . that and increase our majority in the Senate to about 62 while picking up 40 or 50 seats in the House.
Be sure and remind ALL your Democrat friends, neighbors, and co-workers to get out and vote on November 3!
I wouldn't count NJ out, either.
It's amazing to look at the map and see how such a small portion of America can control so much political force over the vast majority.
It basically comes down to around a dozen large cities that are democrat strongholds. And every one is a stinking cesspool of corruption and crime.
California 55
New York 31
Bastions of left-wing lunacy.
If you look at a map of CA, you can see most of the counties are Republican.
Someone got burned. Buying at 60 was pretty stupid.
I still think there is a silent majority who is coming out election day to make a 'statement'. I think we've seen a little of it in a couple of the primaries, and some that are purported to be Kerry-leaning...I'd be surprsed if he carries 40%. I think people are waking up to the issues finally and they are tired of the smear campaign that the Kerry camp has waged, but blamed Bush for. Enough is enough!
Bush loses NH but gains WI and OR? I guess it could happen but that seems somewhat unlikely to me. Some polls have Bush gaining in NH, but most I have seen show him down in OR. I am very hopeful though they can make up for WI having been stolen in 2000 and win it this time.
I am also very hopeful the GOP can pick up IA, MN, NM, and maybe PA.
I looked at the 2000 "results by county" map. You are absolutely correct. It's just the big cities, and they control the electoral votes for the whole state. That really sucks!
Is that county-by-county map still online anywhere?
Southern New Hampshire and up the Connecticut River Valley has gone Democratic. The forestry plan didn't go over well in the North. The Union-Leader is not as forceful as before while the liberal Concord Monitor has increased influence. There is also a stupid scandal between the governor and the AG he forced out over a minor incident initially portrayed as sexual harassment.
New Hampshire is sort of a reverse New Jersey this year.
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