Posted on 09/11/2004 6:18:08 PM PDT by Indie
WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 - President Bush and his top advisers have received intelligence reports in recent days describing a confusing series of actions by North Korea that some experts believe could indicate the country is preparing to conduct its first test explosion of a nuclear weapon, according to senior officials with access to the intelligence.
While the indications were viewed as serious enough to warrant a warning to the White House, American intelligence agencies appear divided about the significance of the new North Korean actions, much as they were about the evidence concerning Iraq's alleged weapons stockpiles.
Some analysts in agencies that were the most cautious about the Iraq findings have cautioned that they do not believe the activity detected in North Korea in the past three weeks is necessarily the harbinger of a test. A senior scientist who assesses nuclear intelligence says the new evidence "is not conclusive," but is potentially worrisome.
If successful, a test would end a debate that stretches back more than a decade over whether North Korea has a rudimentary arsenal, as it has boasted in recent years. Some analysts also fear that a test could change the balance of power in Asia, perhaps leading to a new nuclear arms race there.
In interviews on Friday and Saturday, senior officials were reluctant to provide many details of the new activities they have detected, but some of the information appears to have come from satellite intelligence.
One official with access to the intelligence called it "a series of indicators of increased activity that we believe would be associated with a test," saying that the "likelihood" of a North Korean test had risen significantly in just the past four weeks.
It was that changed assessment that led to the decision to give an update to President Bush, the officials said.
The activities included the movement of materials around several suspected test sites, including one near a location where intelligence agencies reported last year that conventional explosives were being tested that could compress a plutonium core and set off a nuclear explosion. But officials have not seen the classic indicators of preparations at a test site, in which cables are laid to measure an explosion in a deep test pit.
"I'm not sure you would see that in a country that has tunnels everywhere," said one senior official who has reviewed the data. Officials said if North Korea proceeded with a test, it would probably be with a plutonium bomb, perhaps one fabricated from the 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods that the North has boasted in the past few months have been reprocessed into bomb fuel.
A senior intelligence official noted Saturday that even if "they are doing something, it doesn't mean they will" conduct a test, noting that preparations that the North knew could be detected by the United States might be a scare tactic or negotiating tactic by the North Korean government.
Several officials speculated that the test, if it occurred, could be intended to influence the presidential election, though a senior military official said while "an election surprise" could be the motive, "I'm not sure what that would buy them."
While the intelligence community's experience in Iraq colors how it assesses threats in places like North Korea, the comparisons are inexact. Inspectors have seen and measured the raw material that the North could turn into bomb fuel; the only question is whether they have done so in the 20 months since arms inspectors were ousted. While Iraq denied it has weapons, the North boasts about them - perhaps too loudly, suggesting they may have less than they say.
On the other hand, the divisions within the administration over how to deal with North Korea mirrors some of the old debate about Iraq. Hard-liners in the Pentagon and the vice president's office have largely opposed making concessions of any kind in negotiations, and Vice President Dick Cheney has warned that "time is not on our side" to deal with the question. The State Department has pressed the case for negotiation, and for offering the North a face-saving way out. While the State Department has won the argument in recent times, how to deal with the North is a constant battle inside the administration.
Some of the senior officials who discussed the emerging indicators were clearly trying to warn North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Il, that his actions were being closely watched. Asian officials noted that there has been speculation in South Korea and Japan for some time that Mr. Kim might try to stage an incident - perhaps a missile test or the withdrawal of more raw nuclear fuel from a reactor - in an effort to display defiance before the election. "A test would be a vivid demonstration of their view of President Bush," one senior Asian diplomat said.
The intelligence information was discussed in interviews with officials from five government agencies, ranging from those who believe a test may occur at any moment to those who are highly skeptical. They had differing access to the intelligence: some had reviewed the raw data and others had seen a classified intelligence report about the possibility of a test, perhaps within months, that has circulated in Washington in the past week. Most, but not all, were career officials.
If North Korea successfully tested a weapon, the reclusive country would become the eighth nation to have proven nuclear capability - Israel is also assumed to have working weapons - and it would represent the failure of 14 years of efforts to stop the North's nuclear program.
Government officials throughout Asia and members of Mr. Bush's national security team have also feared it could change the nuclear politics of Asia, fueling political pressure in South Korea and Japan to develop a nuclear deterrent independent of the United States.
Both countries have the technological skill and the raw material to produce a bomb, though both have insisted they would never do so. South Korea has admitted in the past few weeks that it conducted experiments that outside experts fear could produce bomb-grade fuel, first in the early 1980's and then in 2000.
Senior officials in South Korea and Japan did not appear to have been briefed about the new evidence, beyond what one called "a nonspecific warning of a growing problem" from American officials. But it is a measure of the extraordinary nervousness about the North's intentions that earlier this week, South Korean intelligence officials who saw evidence of an intense fire at a suspected nuclear location alerted their American counterparts that a small nuclear test might have already occurred. American officials reviewed seismic sensors and other data and concluded it was a false alarm, though the fire has yet to be explained.
North Korea has declared several times in the past year that it might move to demonstrate its nuclear power. It is impossible to know how such a test might affect public perceptions of how Mr. Bush has handled potential threats to the United States. Senator John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, has already accused President Bush of an "almost myopic" focus on Iraq that has distracted the United States while North Korea, by some intelligence estimates, has increased its arsenal from what the C.I.A. suspects was one or two weapons to six or eight now.
Mr. Bush, while declaring he would not "tolerate" a nuclear North Korea, has insisted that his approach of involving China, Russia, Japan and South Korea in a new round of talks with the North is the only reasonable way to force the country to disarm. He has refused to set the kind of deadline for disarmament that he set for Saddam Hussein.
When asked in an interview with The New York Times two weeks ago to define what he meant by "tolerate," he said: "I don't think you give timelines to dictators and tyrants. I think it's important for us to continue to lead coalitions that are firm and strong, in sending messages to both the North Koreans and the Iranians."
The differing assessments of North Korea's intentions may reflect the competing lessons of two huge intelligence failures: the failure of the C.I.A. and other intelligence agencies to detect India's preparations for a nuclear test in 1998, and the false warnings about the state of Iraq's nuclear, biological and chemical programs in 2002, which became the chief justification for invading the country. An investigation into the first failure, a test that took intelligence officials by surprise and led to Pakistan's first tests, prompted searing criticisms of the nation's intelligence agencies. It also created an atmosphere, intelligence professionals say, that encouraged early warning of any hint that another country is preparing a nuclear test.
Eric Schmitt contributed reporting for this article.
b-b-b-bingo! :')
Uh-oh.
Mushroom cloud spotted in North Korea explosion
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1213592/posts
"Thank You Bill Clinton and Mad'lin Half-bright....The Klinton admin...the gift that keeps on giving..."
Don't forget our good friend The Peanut Farmer...
.
Don't forget Jimmy Carter and that damn agreement he made with North Korea
If a nuclear explosion has occurred in DPRK, we should see the following signs:
1. A soft-pedaled media response. Big Media is biased, but they're not stupid. There are still a few thngs that could cause widespread public panic, and anything nuclear qualifies. (The India/Pakistan mess was well publicized, but both states have more-or-less stable governments and were well known to have nukes beforehand.) The sudden annoucement that a hostile (and possibly mad) dictator like Kim Jong-Il has popped off a nuke without warning on September 11 could seriously freak some people (and the markets) out. My guess is that in such a situation the White House would call the major media and ask them to hold off on reporting the story in the interest of national security and public safety until the federal government's response was determined.
2. Mobilization and deployments. My guess is that an NK nuke explosion would result in some major (but quiet) military activity. I would expect “flash” deployments of US ships and aircraft located at vulnerable points (Yokosuka, Sasebo, Guam, etc.) as well as an increase in takeoffs at places like Nellis AFB and Barksdale AFB as strike wings were quick-deployed to bases overseas. There might also be a quiet callup of certain specialized military units such as the 10th Mountain at Fort Drum, NY and the 82nd Airborne Division Ready Brigade at Fort Bragg, NC.
3. Administrative activity. Are the lights burning all night in the Oval Office? How many pizza orders were called into the Situation Room at the Pentagon? Any unusual traffic in or around the naval bases at Pearl Harbor or King's Bay, GA? These are locations that would be burning the midnight oil if the NorKors were to let go with a nuke.
4. Far East Forces alert. What's the alert status of our forces in Korea? Japan? Have the Russians or Chinese increased their alert status?
5. An announcement of an upcoming Presidential address. As the campaign ramps up towards the election, you can bet that the President is going to avoid making any live addresses to the nation for fear of being accused of “playing poltics”. If a Korean sutuation were developing, we might actually see Senator Kerry called to the White House for a briefing, followed by joint addresses from both candiidates presenting a united front. Any talk of a special live Presidential broadcast within the next few days will serve as an indication that something's going on.
So, how's about it? Any of our Far East Freepers notice unusual activity around US bases? Anybody getting a midnight call to report to the Armory with full kit? We need information, not rumors and speculation. Let's get the famous FR intelligence apparatus in gear and find out what's going on.
....There has been talk of moving the capitol
....
Maybe they just did.
Wonder if Karl Rove told Korea to do this (for political advantage). Will have to check tomorrow to see if the dems have found out if he did.
I think the point is, that NK **WAS** ripe for a preemption. Our President has allowed the Pandora's Box to be opened. It is too late politically to intervene.
I can only PRAY he was privy to information we weren't and that he will go in at the right time. They can not be allowed to just start lighthing off nukes. Perhaps the Chicoms gave us some reassurance?? Just grasping at straws trying to make sense of a situation that in my rational mind of limited knowledge makes NO DAMN SENSE! /rant
I know we have a smart and brave leader surrounded by some good folks. There must be a plan...somewhere.
REAL bad advice. Loose lips sink ships.
Looks like they was wrong.
Looks like they did.
I'm not sure why otherwise rational people would hold such a delusion as this.
Blast, Mushroom Cloud Reported in N. Korea
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040912/ap_on_re_as/nkorea_explosion&cid=516&ncid=716
I'm not sure why otherwise rational people would hold such a delusion as this.
It's not a delusion. See the editorial linked in post #27.
Bookmarked.
LOL!
I won't offer an opinion on 'tolerate' but I will point out that journalistic custom is to refer to the President as 'President [NAME]' the first time he is referenced, and as 'Mr [NAME]' for subsequent references in the same story.
There is nothing disrespectful about it and it's the way it has been done for decades.
US Military Freedom Tour, Featuring George W. Bush as CinC:
Afghanistan 2001
Iraq 2003
North Korea 2005
Iran TBD
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