Nuclear Supply, Proliferation and Terrorism
October 3, 2004
by Tom Marzullo
It’s time to play ‘connect-the-dots’ once again and this time we’ll look at the macro issues and drivers that will spread nuclear materials and explosives into the third world over the next decade and therefore to the terrorists.
We’ll get along to the scenarios this could realistically bring after we’re done discussing the how’s and why’s of the supply paths that are opening up.
First of all, there must be a source… in the news today we have two putatively rogue states that are or will shortly become nuclear capable. I am of course referring to North Korea and Iran as these supply points.
But, France is included in this projection as well since it is an established nuclear power whose policies are frequently unfriendly to the interests of the western first world and can be expected to become more so as its population base shifts towards a Muslim majority over the next decade or so, with the political machinery of the radical Islamists inevitably propagandizing them into action as they already do… uniformly, across the globe.
In the very short term we are looking at North Korea, a regime caught between a rock and hard place. Kim Jong-Il must remain in power to stay alive for both he and his henchmen are tied to murders and terror activities to such an extent that he knows that he will appear before the bar, if he should manage to escape the rougher justice that also waits.
There is also the growing political/military conflict between radial Islam and North Korea’s former takeover target that repulsed the 1950 Soviet/Chinese-backed invasion, South Korea. Using the ancient dictum, North Korea finds itself a circumstantial fellow-traveler of the Islamists and this will further drive sales of nuclear materials and, perhaps, complete weapons systems.
North Korea has some other problems as well because it dare not use what it has bought at the cost of long term, mass starvation. Its day-to-day support from China is such that, short of a maniacal suicide attempt, even the serious threat of starting a nuclear exchange would spell the end in short order.
To survive at all, that regime must have hard currency and having painted itself into a corner, international relations-wise by its policies, it must therefore turn to the third world countries with hard currency to spare and pariahs such as itself. If they have the cash they will be able to buy the goods they need to survive… because money talks far louder than politicians, especially in the UN.
Oil prices will provide the lubricant for this exchange. Any reasonable reading of supply and demand would lead you to predicting the price of crude petroleum increasing by at least 50% over the next four years (discounting the perennial perturbations caused by war jitters) as major population masses (think China) enter the marketplace with an emerging consumer society eager for the ‘good life’ that is oil-consumption heavy.
As the Islamists have (and will likely retain) accessaccess to not-insignificant portions of the petroleum-based hard currency exchange and with numerous Middle-Eastern allies to act as go-betweens, even should any restraints be forced upon the North Koreans by any third party, the Islamists will eventually gain access to radiological materials… if not the ‘plug and play’ devices they crave.
If and when Iran comes fully on-line with their nuclear weapons program, a different dynamic will hold sway over their distribution possibilities, for the spread and ascendancy of Islamspread and ascendancy remains the touchstone of Iran’s ruling MullahsIran’s ruling Mullahs.
In this situation the Islamists understand that any transfers to them are going to have to move through a Byzantine trail of middlemen, with a series of unfortunate/carefully-arranged ‘thefts,’ so as to provide Iran’s representatives in the international arenas the required wiggle-room to ensure that the international community cannot easily unite against them. They also know that money talks and that cash-strapped countries who lost their shirts with Baathist Iraq (France, Germany and Russia spring first to mind) that will be eager to cut such a deal as spoilers.
Ah yes… then there is our nuclear ‘La Belle France.’ Given their aforementioned internal issues with a Muslim population that is rapidly breeding themselves into majority status and the ongoing fiscal disaster that they call their economy, the pressure to join in the business of sending nuclear materials and technology (even more than they already have) to the newly flush third world will simply be irresistible. As for French ethics, well… lets not even go there.
Short of a bloody French civil war, such is their future and the smart money says that the effete intellectuals bred at the Sorbonne will never have the cajones for that, though the French military has not been heard from in quite a while and I consider their participation overdue.
Now that I’ve carefully minced words and spared tender feelings, we’ll very briefly discuss where this goes in terms of America’s interests.
If Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain unchecked and its Islamist regime unchanged we can expect a terrorist attack inside the United States with a nuclear-based terrorist device within the next decade and especially if fate is not generally kind to the Islamist terrorists globally. Don’t forget that we are still the ‘Great Satan’ to both the Iranian Mullahs and the Islamist terrorists.
Because of the pure science of detecting/shielding nuclear materials it is not likely that a device using imported radio-nuclides could be unleashed in America’s midlands, but our seaports are a far different matter. Lacking an effective international inspection arrangement for shipping, nuclear materials/weapons will continue to be easily danger to our shores using relatively cheap, low-tech approaches. Ditto for an aircraft, especially from South or Central America, if an accurate and inescapable monitoring program is not put in place uniformly… a difficult proposition at best.
If a still-nuclear France turns Islamist and nuclear Iran remains Islamist then all bets are off and we will face a multifaceted nuclear threat more dangerous than the “M.A.D.” doctrine existent during the East-West Cold War… because religious fanatics habitually operate in non-reality by definition.
Better to nip this one in the bud.
Tom Marzullo is a columnist/physicist/educator who is a former US Army Special Forces combat soldier and US Navy Submariner with special operations experience in both services. He was the leader of the Internet-based effort by Special Forces veterans that debunked the false CNN/TIME magazine nerve gas story, 'Tailwind' and has provided testimony before the US Senate on military and intelligence matters. He resides in Colorado.
http://www.mensnewsdaily.com/archive/m-n/marzullo/2004/marzullo100404.htm
This is extremely well written and well organized. It however is "safe siding" the issue to the point of barf alert. Heck I personally predicted a terror attack inside the USA in print way back in 1990! Look what happened.....Sept 11th! Precognition? Nope. Common sense.
The first sentence of this piece says it's time to connect the dots again. But this would have been better served if it had come a year ago, because it all would have been valid then and more useful. A nuclear attack within a decade? How about within the next MONTH?
The mullahs have already issued the decree that failure to produce two nuclear devices by January 2005 (Inauguration day is Jan 20th) means rejection of the faith. I can't imagine a stronger motivator. To paraphrase: Give Allah the nuclear fist or you're not a Muslim. Why the big push for January? Inauguration Day? Maybe. I think it's more likely to deliver a followup punch to our country, already ravaged by a WMD terror attack on US soil delivered by AQ and in conjunction with the concurrent low tech attacks sure to be in progress. The individual suicide bombers in malls, the truck bombings at infrastructure targets and the street level attacks against helpless Americans. Please note that these latter will probably be happening in areas where 2nd Amendment rights are nonexistent.
I look back on the paragraph I have just written and acknowledge that even to myself, I sound like some kind of post apocalyptic nut case covered in tinfoil......before September 11th 2001 Recent events seem to say otherwise.
Tom Marzullo is a first class analyst with a solid head on his shoulder. Not too many former submariners with Special Ops experience around besides him, and that makes an extremely potent combination when anylizing nuclear proliferation. I trust anything he says in an article with my life.
He is spot on about proliferation and rogue states, and I know he knows the business well enough to make the assessment. What I believe needs to be stated in his article is one additional fact that the article didnt address because it was outside the focus of piece.
North Korea and Iran are working on extremely long range ballistic missiles with Orbital range and the capacity to deliver a payload anywhere on planet Earth from orbit.
They are still in development and not operational, but are ONE GENERATION AWAY from deployment. They probably will be deployed within the next ten years. If they make technology advances, they could be available within 5 years.
Our problems dont just end with the terrorists. Rogue nations with orbital ballistic missiles are a very real threat to ouor existance.
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=24735
Tuesday, October 5, 2004
With troops' deployment to Iraq, South Korea ups threat level, bolsters security
By Joseph Giordono, Stars and Stripes
Pacific edition, Wednesday, October 6, 2004
SEOUL — Security concerns sparked by the deployment of South Korean troops to Iraq increased Monday, with both South Korean and U.S. military and government agencies at heightened states of alert.
The South Korean military and national police ramped up their terrorism alert levels, deploying armored vehicles and special anti-terror teams to guard possible targets such as the U.S. Embassy in Seoul and Incheon International Airport.
Higher force protection levels at installations and a 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew imposed Sept. 24 remained in effect, U.S. officials said Monday. The curfew applies to all U.S. servicemembers, dependants, Department of Defense civilians and most contractors. . . .
U.S. Embassy officials in Seoul also issued a strongly-worded warning Sept. 24, citing “indications” that al-Qaida and other terror groups “continue to prepare to strike U.S. interests,” including through suicide operations, bombings or kidnappings.
South Korean officials increased their terror alert levels Sunday and Monday after a tape attributed to al-Qaida’s reputed second-in-command surfaced Friday, naming South Korea as a target along with other allies of the United States in Iraq.
On Monday, Korean officials confirmed heightened immigration screenings at airports and increased scrutiny of a government list of about 4,000 suspected terrorists. The Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency will conduct bomb sweeps at major airports and subway stations and has warned tenants of specific buildings — including embassies, official residences and other “potential targets” — to increase their security measures.
More than 5,300 additional police were deployed at almost 250 potential targets, including the National Assembly building and government office complexes.
South Korean military bases both on the peninsula and abroad also increased their alert status, officials said. An emergency meeting of the South Korean National Security Council and 20 other government agencies was to have taken place Monday, said a Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade official.
(snip)
http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr/Engnews/20041005/301100000020041005184640E7.html
China May Send 400,000 Troops in Case of War on Korean Peninsula
SEOUL, Oct. 5 (Yonhap) -- China would send about 400,000 troops to fight alongside North Korea in the event of a war breaking out on the Korean Peninsula, the Defense Ministry said Tuesday.
In line with a 1961 defense treaty with North Korea, China is expected to dispatch a "limited" number of troops to help its communist ally fight a war, said South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Kim Jong-hwan during a parliamentary audit on his office.
http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2004/10/06/200410060005.asp
Dispute over N. Korea military briefly halts Assembly audit
(snip)
In Monday's inspection, he said,"In the event the South Korea-U.S. alliance deteriorates to the extent that the South Korean military alone has to guard against an enemy attack, the defensive lines of the capital Seoul would collapse within 15 days."
"That means the loss of the Seoul metropolitan area," Park said.
"According to the report, if all the enemy's long-range artillery pieces are fired, 25,000 shells per hour would rain down and destroy one third of Seoul within one hour," Park said.
North Korea is believed to have positioned most of its 10,000 artillery pieces of varying calibers along the Demilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas. Some of the North Korea artillery is capable of striking the northern parts of Seoul, which is only 50 kilometers from the DMZ.
According to a recent government report, South Korea's military capability was found to be weaker than that of North Korea, even if the communist state's nuclear and biological weapons were not included.
The South Korean Army and Navy's strengths were calculated to be 80 percent and 90 percent of those of the North, while its Air Force capability was 103 percent of the North's, according to a study released late August by the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses.
http://joongangdaily.joins.com/200410/04/200410042230082839900090209021.html
Octorber 5, 2004 KST 22:14 (GMT+9)
Plan to cope with fall of North divulged
(snip)
An opposition lawmaker disclosed details yesterday of South Korean plans for coping with the possible collapse of the North Korean regime and for handling a mass defection from the communist state, including a contingency for dealing with insurrection.
The plans, revealed by Grand National Party Representative Chung Moon-hun at a National Assembly hearing, are the first significant look at the government's readiness in case the leaders in Pyeongyang lose control over their country and the South is forced to step in.
Mr. Chung's office said the details have been kept classified, but the Unification Ministry, seeking to assure the public, provided selective details. Under the plan, code-named "Chungmu 9000," South Korea will establish an emergency administrative headquarters in the North, which will work to liberalize the economy and society. South Korea's unification minister will head the agency with powers greater than a governor.
Unification Ministry staff will be deployed to operate the organization, and officials from other ministries will follow to take systemic authority in the North.
Another plan, called "Chungmu 3300," details Seoul's preparation for any mass defection and includes contingencies for a possible civil war.