Hurricane Ivan - 9/10 thread - 5am update predicts Jamaica tonight, western Florida Monday night(?)

national weather service ^ | 9/10/04 | national weather service

[Diddle E. Squat]

000 WTNT44 KNHC 100813 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

REPORTS FROM AN USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP SEVERAL MB FROM THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND IS NOW 929 MB. THE OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS SUPPORT ABOUT 125 KT OR LESS MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND ...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE RAGGED ON THE NORTH SIDE...BUT THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY GOING THROUGH FLUCTUATIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS... THE LAND MASS OF CUBA AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING...BUT IVAN COULD STILL REMAIN A RATHER POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS IVAN IS STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN WESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER FLORIDA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. IT REMAINS... OF COURSE...MUCH TOO EARLY TO BE VERY CERTAIN ABOUT THE THREAT TO FLORIDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DECIDED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE PUTTING UP A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.9N 74.2W 125 KT

12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.9N 75.6W 125 KT

24HR VT 11/0600Z 18.0N 77.4W 130 KT

36HR VT 11/1800Z 19.1N 78.9W 135 KT

48HR VT 12/0600Z 20.4N 80.2W 135 KT

72HR VT 13/0600Z 23.3N 81.9W 115 KT

96HR VT 14/0600Z 27.0N 82.5W 115 KT

120HR VT 15/0600Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND

[Dog Gone]

There are some clueless Americans in Jamaica who decided only yesterday to leave the resorts and fly home. Guess what? All flights were booked full.

Good luck to them in riding out the storm at Sandals. Sheesh.

[dfwgator]

Good luck to them in riding out the storm at Sandals. Sheesh.

The sad thing is that if anything God forbid should happen to them, they'll blame Bush for not sending planes down there to evacuate them, you can bet on that.

[The Iguana]

Add me to your ping list!

[Quilla]

We have plenty of room at our home in Dothan, Alabama about 100 miles north of Panama City. Any freepers having difficulties finding a place to escape this monster are welcome.

[numberonepal]

Good luck to them in riding out the storm at Sandals. Sheesh.

I suggest they find one of those caves up in the hills in Jamaica. I hope they're at least at Montego Bay or Ocho Rio. The ones at Whitehouse and Negril (sp?) will be in for some very bad weather. I don't know about Whitehouse, but you can throw a rock into the water from the bugalows at Negril.

Latest sat photos are showing the eyewall beginning to form again. It should reach its best organization right around nightfall/landfall. Then right back into the warm water. Hopefully the mountains in Jamaica will cause some sheering, but it will pretty much depend on the overall speed of the storm. Blue Mountain coffee will be $100/lb after this.

All should remember that Jamaica is a very poor country for the most part. If you've ever ridden a bus or driven for any length of time on the island, you noticed lots of little shanty towns. These folks are living in houses built from plywood and tin with a dirt floor. These will be leveled in no time flat. There may not really be a safe place on the island at all except for cave in the mountains, unless that cave is a run off from mountain rain.

[shield]

Is this today's thread for Crazy Ivan? Or is the thread still the same one we've been posting on?

This looks like a Florida west coast hit? Like you said last night...from Tampa upward?

[freeeee]

You have a lot of class and character to make an offer like that.

My hat is off to you.

[Catspaw]

I can't even begin to imagine the anxiety level among Floridians. Even though we were warned that this would be a very active hurricane season (Dr. William Gray comes to mind), usually the hurricanes that make landfall are scattered over a wider geographic area--the Yucatan, Texas, the Gulf Coast--but not three hurricanes in a little more than three weeks taking dead aim at Florida. It's just unimaginable--but not for those who are in or have been in the paths of these monsters.

[Dog Gone]

I don't think they're in any position to compete with the locals for room in caves outside the resort. Presumably, the management has some sort of reasonable plan to keep the guests alive. The Americans I know of specifically are at Negril, and that area is going to get hammered.

[MikefromOhio]

Very Carefully!!!


I dont know....I would hate to be in Tampa right now, but I think it is going to shift further West and weaken a bit more than forecast (I hope).....

[independentmind]

Do you have any idea how Guantanamo Bay would be affected if Ivan makes landfall on Cuba as predicted? I haven't seen any comments on the subject.

I hope nothing similar to what occurred to the prison on Grenada happens.

[Dog Gone]

I guess it's today's thread. It's the latest one I've seen posted.

Yeah, Florida west coast. Perhaps slightly south of Tampa Bay, but I'd still favor somewhat north.

[Marak]

And Marco Island where I am at.

[cogitator]

Do you have any idea how Guantanamo Bay would be affected if Ivan makes landfall on Cuba as predicted?

Forecast track doesn't take it anywhere near Gitmo, which is northeast of Jamaica. Ivan's heading northwest.

[cogitator]

Two slightly hopeful things:'

Once in the Gulf of Mexico...the shear is forecast to increase and Ivan should gradually weaken. Ivan is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane until it reaches the United States.

it becomes uncertain after the hurricane crosses Cuba when guidance shows that the hurricane could continue over the Gulf of Mexico or could turn north-northeast over Florida.

Stay west, Ivan, and shear, shear, shear...

[ContemptofCourt]

My father is boarding up the windows in the office and bagging all the impt stuff...he is bailing tomorrow am for Melbourne...said everyone is kinda freaked about this one.

[Dog Gone]

Ivan's eye wasn't visible this morning as it was apparently going through one of the eyewall replacement cycles. But in the last frame of this loop, I think the eye is visible again.

That's horrible timing for Jamaica because it probably signals intensification.

[gcruse]

depends if we get more threatening hurricanes, which may be possible. {sob}

I've noticed the function of threes with these hurricanes. AB, then Charley.  DE, then Frances.  GH, then Ivan. IJ, then...Lamont?

[shield]

Stay west, Ivan, and shear, shear, shear...

Once he gets closer to USA...start watching the shearing that will start to take place...and possibly dry air...is this only hopeful...maybe not!!

[jsh3180]

You can bet that they are all freaked out./..I am the only resident left on my street, everyone else bugged out this morning. I am going to hang in here till tomorrow as I still have a ton of work to do. My house is now secure but have 4 construction sites to batten down tomorrow.

I am just freaking exhausted already.