Posted on 09/08/2004 9:06:23 AM PDT by bd476
"He always goes starboard at the bottom of the hour."
Me, too ... another hit like that on Charlotte County and it will finish it off for good.
bump!
It is truly hard to imagine the GFS outcome as being even remotely possible at this point.
Right now, I'd suggest the key thing to look at is where Ivan passes the island of Jamaica. If it's south of the island by very much, this storm could become a Mexican or Texas event. If it's north, then it has Cuba and Florida written all over it. And if it directly hits Jamaica, it might be seriously weakened by the mountains.
Thanks for the new thread. bd476, thanks for showing the link to the old thread as well. That keeps us up to speed and saves our time.
What site are you getting this information from?
Ivan Terrorises Grenada - Now Heading for Jamaica and the U.S.
"PA"
Hurricane Ivan, with winds of more than 140 mph, was barrelling across the Caribbean toward more holiday isles tonight after devastating Grenada.
Ivan is on course to hit the US mainland at the weekend after crossing over Jamaica and Cuba.
It made a direct hit on Grenada with ferocious winds, causing “incalculable damage” and killing at least three people as it collapsed concrete homes into piles of rubble and hurled hundreds of the island’s landmark red zinc roofs through the air.
The most powerful storm to hit the Caribbean in 14 years wrecked the capital, St George’s, and also damaged homes in Barbados, St Lucia and St Vincent.
Thousands were without water, electricity and telephone service, just days after Hurricane Frances rampaged through.
Ivan strengthened even as it was over Grenada, becoming a Category 4 storm and got even stronger as it headed across the Caribbean Sea, passing north of the Dutch Caribbean islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao.
It is threatening to cross right over Jamaica by Friday morning or Saturday, and then Cuba, the US National Hurricane Centre in Miami said.
http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=3470465
Like I said, most of the model maps on the web are terrible for a variety of reasons (incomplete, slow to update, or show TOO MANY models and don't label them, giving a false impression of model spread.)
A couple of those models are text output..the GFDL and UKMET (the Bracknell "vort tracker") and the various NHC models are avaliable at a Florida State University ftp site. I import these into a program (beta version, not currently avaliable, I didn't write it) that generates my own map.
For the other models, I use 3 different sites and import the tracks with mouse clicks on a SLP or Vorticity map.
I'll TRY posting the link to my site; the name of it is sort of a play on the many self-important tropical "Center" sites on the web done by non-meteorologists (I'm not one either) that are just some guy in front of a computer.
I'm not really sure if it can take the hits, but here goes; updates are erratic as I need to be awake and at home, of course. I delete the various irrelevant old models, as the hideous "spaghetti map" does not.
GUNA (the thick black line) is the most important to NHC.
(Note; PLEASE no one paste the modelmap as an image in a thread here!)
http://home.comcast.net/~johnk8/INDEX.HTML
storm damage allowed prisoners to escape Grenada’s prison
New ECMWF is in (Because of the nature of the maps I can't import the storm positions to plot on my site.)
It hits Miami, goes up the East Coast of FL, and ends up in South Carolina.
GAH. Here we go again...
Good grief, your poor mother. How did Dad handle it??????
Here we go again is right.
You missed the fun yesterday. First day of school. My 5 yr old son Robbie had an all day fit while my 7 1/2 yr old autistic son JJ had a great day. *head shake* Go figure. Robbie did a lot better today, thank God.
Poor Dad!!!!
Jax seemed to be happy with first day of school yesterday....we'll see about today. The bus is due home in about 10 minutes!
Thanks for the link! It looks like you have put a bit of thought into this. As someone who lives in hurricane country, I am interested in how the different computer models generate the eventual track that NHC publishes.
Thanks for the ping
Thanks for the hurricane ping.
Dang, I still don't have electricity at the house after Frances.
UKMET was pretty good as I recall.
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