Hurricane Ivan: Now A CAT 4/Models Shift Again

NHC | 9-07-2004 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Ivan has become a Category 4 Hurricane again! Winds over 130 mph and gusts up to 160 currently. The models have shifted the last 36 hrs like never before. My fellow Floridians might not like the 8 pm model that has just come out:

[tutstar]

I really can't believe all these storms, yet they say we're not into the peak of the season! UGH!At least Frances had lost some punch by the time she hit and we can be thankful for that.

[tutstar]

Which model gave the most-accurate predictions for Frances?

I'd like to know that too.

[Snowy]

LOL!

[tutstar]

I'm not on the FL ping list, please direct.

[tutstar]

Hi I'm learning we've got a few Jacksonville freepers.

[VeniVidiVici]

May as well do an 8AM update. Nobody in my neighborhood has even taken the plywood off the windows. Friends in Merritt Island (Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral area) still don't have power. Progress Energy predicts their remaining powerless customers will have power back by the end of the week.

If Ivan hits it will be much worse than Charlie or Frances. Charlie had the winds and weakened the trees. Frances had the rain which supersoaked an already wet ground. If we get winds even at the reduced speed of Frances, many trees will be uprooted.

I'm not scared of these things, they're just a PITA!!!

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000
WTNT34 KNHC 080835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES.

AT 5 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM...WEST OF GRENADA. THIS ALSO ABOUT 235 MILES...380 KM... EAST OF BONAIRE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IVAN NORTH OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE ISLANDS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS ESTIMATED TO BE 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN..

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N... 64.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[dirtboy]

Cuba will take the edge off Ivan the way the Bahamas weakened Frances.

Cuba didn't put a dent in Charley. And it wasn't the Bahamas that weakened Frances - it was the fact that Frances slowed down and some dry air worked into the system.

The area just north of Cuba has spawned some of the most intense Gulf hurricanes, including Camille. If this sucker crosses far western Cuba and enters the Gulf, watch out.

[aBootes]

I have suggested naming them after sitting members of Congress -- in honor of the uncertainty of their real intentions and the inevitable destruction.

[browardchad]

I live near Pompano, and there's still many areas here without power. We got ours back on Monday night, but it goes on and off. Some of our friends in other neighborhoods have had power restored only to lose it again. The damage wasn't too bad; mostly trees down and relatively minor property damage.

The bottom line, though, is that your aunt should be OK.

[cyn]

Hi, tut! lol on that vienna sausage -- yeah, may need to get a few cans. Some folks in outlying areas to west are still eating from cans (cold, at that; one guy said for 4 days!) and were glad that Salvation Army was serving hot meals from mobile unit -- didn't see exactly where that was.

Made me glad for my "Safe Heat" chafing dish fuel, had gotten pack of 12 at Sam's Club last fall. I set 3 cans in oven w/ventilation. It did a GREAT job of heating water & making a hot meal Mon w/oven racks to adjust.

All this disruption for something that hit way down state! Could have been so much worse. Frances truly looked like a bowling ball aimed at us earlier last week. I'm grateful to God it weakened, though still covered hugh area.

[No Blue States]

"Surf fishing for Reds was never as good as it was during Gilbert. Over 60 bull reds caught with each weighing at least 40 pounds in a little over 4 hours with 5 guys fishing. San Luis Pass Fishing Pier. Never forget it. Time to oil my surf reels."

Now that sounds fun. I bet your arms were aching. We will be surf fishing SLP for bull reds, then bolivar a week from Friday. Ive never caught one over 30 lbs. My reels are oiled but need to be restrung.

I can catch some w/o Ivan though, Hoping it hooks south to Mexico.

[cyn]

Freeper Joe Brower has general interest FL ping list.

bd476 has hurricane ping list, which is really helping.

[cyn]

"I have suggested naming them after sitting members of Congress -- in honor of the uncertainty of their real intentions and the inevitable destruction."

I really, REALLY like that suggestion.

[jpsb]

UKMET was pretty good.

[TXBSAFH]

What did you guys do in Florida to so hack off God? The new state motto for Florida, Closed for renovations.;)

[tutstar]

Ummmmm, court ordered dehydration of a disabled woman maybe?

[Joe Brower]

Heh heh.

Actually, God is on our side, and this is his way of scaring all those New England lefties back up north where they belong. Also, there's a bunch of Kerry-voters who right now are too busy putting their roofs back on to even thinking about pulling the lever for that communist sympathizer in November.

God does indeed work in mysterious ways. $;-)

[TXBSAFH]

That and he probably isn't to keen on Gay days at Disney either. I have been in the eye of a cat 3 hurricane, it is like being in the wrath of God.

[tutstar]

Oh yes, I forgot about Disney though hubby and I talked about it a bit the other day.

I've been praying every day for those south of me. You guys have really had it tough. I was just south of Hugo when it hit and told myself I'd never sit through that again. Sometimes you don't have a choice though. It takes $$ to get up and go out of the way and even some of the shelters weren't much better off than many homes. But mobile home compared to shelter, shelter wins!!

[chs68]

I think the US Weather Bureau began to name Tropical Storms and Hurricanes around 1950 - 1953. At first, only female names were used.

In 1979, male names began to be used as well.