Hurricane Ivan: Now A CAT 4/Models Shift Again

NHC | 9-07-2004 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Ivan has become a Category 4 Hurricane again! Winds over 130 mph and gusts up to 160 currently. The models have shifted the last 36 hrs like never before. My fellow Floridians might not like the 8 pm model that has just come out:

[cajungirl]

I guess Louisiana and Mississippi and Texas ought to be ready and willing to take this one from Florida, but it is not nice to think about. I have always worried about one coming up the Miss R and into New Orleans. I was there for Betsy and it was scary, scary.

[cajungirl]

Not Bonaire!! My favorite Island. It would be very strange, hurricanes aren't supposed to hit that south in Sept from what the natives say.

[G Larry]

Will the FL building industry be helped when floating, reinforced concrete home construction is required by code?

[Dog Gone]

The truth is, especially if you read the Discussion above, is that the forecasters don't know where this one is going. Short term, yes. By the weekend, no clue.

A category 5 storm is very rare, and Ivan likely will be one, if he gets into the Gulf. New Orleans could not survive any Category 4 or 5 storm that directly hit from the southeast or southwest, and even a slow-moving Cat 3 storm would accomplish the same thing. But I think most residents have had that fact drummed into their heads by now, and hopefully they'll act accordingly.

[Hotdog]

"Those models always change. Hurricanes are unpredictable"

So is my wife...but I still love her....lol

[cajungirl]

Betsy was unbelievable,,wind gusts over 200. The city was wrecked but the lake didnt get picked up and dumped.

[kinghorse]

Chart of every storm that intersected 13 lat -68 long.

[4Godsoloved..Hegave]

<> Now that is something to clap about.

[Sam Cree]

I agree that Ivan is confusing the TPC to some extent, if only for the reason that the updates are frequently changing quite a bit from what they were showing only hours before.

[DietCoke]

clever! :)

[DietCoke]

clever! :)

[rdl6989]

Hopefully this will miss Florida. Maybe it will pass to the south.

[Ben Bolt]

Your Aunt probably does not have electricity restored yet.

[kinghorse]

Assuming the current forecast is accurate, Ivan is tracking to cross latitude 18 and longitude -77. Here is a chart of every storm that intersected 18 -77. I remember Allen. I remember Gilbert. Allen was the monster, as big as the gulf and it scared people nearly to death. It ended up being a non event for everywhere except a lonely stretch of King Ranch. Surf fishing for Reds was never as good as it was during Gilbert. Over 60 bull reds caught with each weighing at least 40 pounds in a little over 4 hours with 5 guys fishing. San Luis Pass Fishing Pier. Never forget it. Time to oil my surf reels.

[Strategerist]

I wonder what % of US refined petroleum products are refined in the ABC islands; they have one of the largest refineries in the world for Venezuelan oil.

[steve86]

I wonder what % of US refined petroleum products are refined in the ABC islands; they have one of the largest refineries in the world for Venezuelan oil.

Really good point. I understand Venezuelan refined exports to the U.S. are a major supply component, particularly east of the Mississippi. Futures market doesn't seem to be worried, however; crude tonight is down another 9 cents.

[cyn]

lol . . . we did find it on our plates occasionally when I was growing up, but it was always thickly coated w/syrup glaze to entice us.

[ChocChipCookie]

I'll never forget the hurricane that came up the Gulf of California several years ago. Had people in PHOENIX sandbagging their homes. LOL

[Blue Scourge]

These damned Hurricaines need to leave my girlfriend alone, she lives in Destin Beach Fla.

[tutstar]

Try Sav a Lot! Personally vienna sausages rule!