Numerical Poll Analysis: ARG, CBS, FoxNews, Gallup, LA Times, Newsweek.

Here are the latest political affiliation breakdowns for many of the major polls that have been published. This allows one to judge how much any variance in the political affiliation of the pool of poll respondents affects the final published poll results. It will allow for a comparison to those future polls which will be released in the next 57 days. Updated figures are for the American Research Group, LA Times, Gallup and Newsweek.

Calculations for the post-convention 'bounce' for Bush are now listed for the American Research Group, Gallup, the LA Times and Newsweek. Remember that 'lead' is different from 'bounce'. A 'lead' is how far candidate A is ahead of candidate B in a current poll. A 'bounce' is defined as the difference between: the change in candidate A's poll results in two successive polls and the change in candidate B's poll results in the same two successive polls.

Here are the latest political affiliation breakdowns for the polls from the American Research Group, CBS News, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Gallup, the LA Times and Newsweek/PSRAI. If the poll result percentages in the table show below are rounded off so as not to have a fractional component, the results should match the published polls for each polling organization. The fractional differences in the table poll results are due to the calculations done to distribute the sample number of Registered voter responses which was necessary to avoid any great inaccuracies due to the rounding already performed by the polling organizations.


			Revision Date:
			09/06/2004


ARG Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All polls Registered Voters

July 1-3, 2004		35.2%	38.8%	26.0%	773 RV	44.24%	47.35%	2.59%	5.82%
July 30-August 1, 2004		35.1%	37.1%	27.8%	776 RV	44.97%	48.58%	2.06%	4.38%
August 30-September 1, 2004		34.6%	37.1%	28.3%	1,014 RV	44.67%	45.96%	2.96%	6.41%

July 30-August 1 minus July 1-3		-0.1%	-1.7%	1.8%		0.73%	1.23%	-0.53%	-1.44%
ARG Kerry Convention Bounce:	0.50%


Aug 30-Sep 1 minus July 3--Aug 1		-0.4%	0.0%	0.5%		-0.30%	-2.63%	0.90%	2.03%
ARG Bush Convention Bounce:	2.33%





CBS News Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Wont Vote	Depends	Do not know
All polls Registered or Likely Voters

May 20-23, 2004		28.6%	33.6%	37.8%	883 RV	40.54%	46.55%	5.44%	0.57%	1.59%	0.57%	4.76%
July 11-15, 2004		27.3%	34.2%	38.5%	789 RV	41.57%	45.25%	5.20%	0.38%	1.27%	1.52%	4.82%
July 30 - August 1, 2004		35.4%	37.5%	27.1%	837 RV	42.51%	48.39%	2.99%	0.01%	0.37%	1.19%	4.54%
August 15-18, 20004		33.7%	35.5%	30.8%	792 RV	44.95%	46.09%	1.14%	0.38%	0.88%	1.01%	5.56%

July 11-15 minus July 30-August 1, 2004		8.1%	3.3%	-11.4%		0.94%	3.14%	-2.21%	-0.37%	-0.90%	-0.33%	-0.28%
CBS News Kerry Convention Bounce:	2.20%



FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other	Wont Vote
All polls Registered or Likely Voters

July 20-21, 2004		36.3%	41.2%	22.4%	900 RV	43.11%	42.44%	3.56%	10.33%	0.56%
August 3-4, 2004		35.6%	42.1%	22.3%	900 RV	41.78%	46.44%	2.44%	8.78%	0.56%
August 24-25, 2004		33.6%	36.5%	29.9%	1,000 LV	42.51%	43.99%	3.50%	9.51%	0.49%

August 3-4, 2004 minus July 20-21		-0.8%	0.9%	-0.1%		-1.33%	4.00%	-1.11%	-1.56%	0.00%
FoxNews Kerry Convention Bounce:	5.33%



Gallup Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All polls Registered Voters

May 7-9, 2004		32.2%	34.1%	33.8%	877 RV	41.39%	46.41%	7.41%	4.79%
May 21-23, 2004		35.3%	36.5%	28.2%	883 RV	44.17%	46.09%	5.78%	3.96%
June 3-6, 2004		35.5%	37.7%	26.8%	896 RV	42.41%	45.42%	7.37%	4.80%
June 21-23, 2004		34.1%	37.6%	28.2%	882 RV	44.90%	46.49%	5.56%	3.06%
July 8-11, 2004		34.7%	37.6%	27.7%	891 RV	41.53%	50.28%	3.70%	4.49%
July 19-21, 2004		41.3%	37.6%	21.1%	878 RV	43.39%	47.38%	5.01%	4.21%
July 30-August 1, 2004		39.6%	39.2%	21.2%	916 RV	47.71%	47.38%	2.29%	2.62%
August 9-11, 2004		39.9%	38.2%	21.9%	897 RV	46.04%	44.93%	4.91%	4.12%
August 23-25, 2004		40.6%	37.7%	21.7%	876 RV	46.46%	46.46%	3.54%	3.54%
September 3-5, 2004		40.6%	40.2%	19.2%	926 RV	48.16%	46.44%	3.56%	1.84%

July 30-August 1 minus July 19-21		-1.7%	1.6%	0.1%		4.31%	0.00%	-2.72%	-1.59%
Gallup Kerry Convention Bounce:	-4.31%


September 3-5 minus August 23-25		0.0%	2.5%	-2.5%		1.70%	-0.02%	0.02%	-1.70%
Gallup Bush Convention Bounce:	1.73%



Los Angeles Times Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other/UnDec	Dont Know
All polls Registered Voters

June 5-8, 2004		25.9%	38.0%	36.1%	1,230 RV	42.49%	48.35%	4.14%	0.51%	4.51%
July 17-21, 2004		31.7%	40.9%	27.3%	1,529 RV	43.56%	46.37%	3.07%	0.39%	6.61%
August 21-24, 2004		32.0%	41.0%	27.0%	1,352 RV	46.60%	44.08%	3.40%	0.59%	5.33%

August 21-24 minus July 17-21		0.2%	0.1%	-0.3%		3.04%	-2.29%	0.33%	0.20%	-1.28%
LA Times Kerry Convention Bounce:	-5.33%



Newsweek Poll Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All polls Registered Voters

March 18-19, 2004		35.9%	35.1%	29.0%	838 RV	45.47%	43.44%	5.49%	5.61%
May 13-14, 2004		32.2%	36.9%	30.9%	832 RV	42.31%	43.27%	5.41%	9.01%
July 8-9, 2004		34.4%	35.6%	30.0%	1,001 RV	44.36%	47.35%	2.70%	5.59%
July 29-30, 2004		29.0%	38.5%	32.5%	1,010 RV	41.78%	49.41%	3.07%	5.74%
September 2-3, 2004		34.6%	32.3%	33.1%	1,008 RV	51.88%	41.07%	3.47%	3.57%

July 29-30 minus July 8-9		-5.4%	2.9%	2.5%		-2.57%	2.05%	0.37%	0.15%
Newsweek Kerry Convention Bounce:	4.63%


September 2-3 minus July 29-30, 2004		5.6%	-6.3%	0.7%		10.10%	-8.33%	0.40%	-2.17%
Newsweek Bush Convention Bounce:	18.44%

Looking at the internals to the last two Gallup three-way polls of registered voters, it appears that the base of each major party is firming up, with the major difference in the latest Gallup poll being a 10% point shift in the Independents towards George Bush. This accounts for most of the post-convention 'Bush bounce' of around 2% which has given Bush a identical 2% lead in the Gallup poll since both he and Kerry were tied at 46% in the August 23-25 poll.

Gallup Three-way Poll
Internals: Political Affiliation
August 23-25, 2004

*Demographics*	Republican	Democrat	Independent		Poll Numbers
Favor Bush	88.00%	8.00%	37.00%	Bush:	46.00%
Favor Kerry	9.00%	88.00%	46.00%	Kerry:	46.00%
Favor Nader	2.00%	2.00%	8.00%	Nader:	4.00%
Other/UnDec	1.00%	2.00%	9.00%	Other/UnDec	4.00%
	100%	100%	100%		100.0%

Gallup Three-way Poll
Internals: Political Affiliation
September 3-5, 2004

*Demographics*	Republican	Democrat	Independent		Poll Numbers
Favor Bush	91.00%	7.00%	44.00%	Bush:	48.00%
Favor Kerry	6.00%	90.00%	43.00%	Kerry:	46.00%
Favor Nader	2.00%	2.00%	8.00%	Nader:	4.00%
Other/UnDec	1.00%	1.00%	5.00%	Other/UnDec	2.00%
	100%	100%	100%		100.0%

Source: Free Republic Thread, message # 195

I have created a temporary 'ping' list to many who had expressed interest in these R/D/I poll breakdowns. If you wish to be added (or removed) from this 'ping' list, please place a reply on this thread and I will attempt to clean-up this list so as to not bother those who do not wish to read this type of poll analysis.

Hope this helps...

dvwjr

New poll analysis information.

dvwjr

Thanks for the ping..

Great work once again.

This analysis is always very interesting.

Are you on Dales's ping list?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1208887/posts

Much thanks for the ping. I'd glanced over these threads before but this is the first I'd looked at one in depth. Very good work! I'll be paying more attention in the future.

It seems that the Newsweek poll is severely out-of-whack. I'm starting to wonder if they are expressly manufacturing convention bounces in their results.. They seriously undersample Republicans in their July 29-30 poll and seriously undersample Democrats in their September 2-3 poll.

33 years later 1st Winter Soldier "witness" Affadavit about Kerry

http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=PitkinAff

Steve Pitkin Affadavit, August 31, 2004

September 6, 2004 -- **BREAKING** In Yesterday's Lies: Steve Pitkin and the Winter Soldiers,
Scott Swett tells the story of a former VVAW member and participant in the Winter Soldier Investigation
who states that John Kerry and others pressured him to give false testimony
about American atrocities in Vietnam.
After more than 33 years, Pitkin is the first Winter Soldier "witness"
to file a legal affadavit regarding that event...

Steve Pitkin DD-214
http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/graphics/PitkinDD214.jpg

Steve Pitkin WSI testimony
http://ice.he.net/~freepnet/kerry/staticpages/index.php?page=PitkinWSI

Steve Pitkin WSI video clips -- February 1, 1971 (4:16, 1.6MB)
http://www.wintersoldier.com/video/pitkin2.wmv

These url's need broad distribution ASAP!

Gallup poll internals...

dvwjr

Helpful info.

Thanks for the ping.

These numbers don't seem to be what the media has been talking about for the last few days.

Fascinating that the GOP support for Bush at 91% is even higher than the Dem support for Kerry. So much for the "disaffected conservatives" notion.

According to polls Bush's very strong base support has been there throughout his Presidency - despite the occasional contrary opinions here on FR.

Thanks for the heads up. Will check this out this morning.

thanks for the ping. always interesting to look at.

Very interesting analysis. Please keep me on your ping list as I enjoy seeing other views, especially when I'm not sure whether to completely trust some of the big name pollsters or not. Your remark that the Bush bounce has been almost entirely due to a shift in the independent vote is telling. I would theorize that when and if you detect even a small shift to Bush from the Democratic base, it's gonna be all over. Unless Kerry himself has a complete Dean-like moment, the only way that I see to achieve that Dem vote shift will be through more Swift Vet ads. Their impact on voter attitude cannot be underestimated. They have completely transformed the landscape.

Thanks!

Anyone know what the demographics of the undecideds are?

Kerry has gone back to class warfare and health care. What is the likelihood this will move undecideds in his favor I wonder?

Gallup RVs, the measure I told everyone to look for... has Bush up only 1 pct. *gulp*. Naaaahh...we know this is going to be close, Bush has mo., the EC looks great, and Kerry only has slanderers like Kitty Kelly up his sleave.

CBS numbers are wrong. 33-28 = 5 not 8.

Thanks.