Electoral College Scoreboard: Bush 305 Kerry 233

The Washington Dispatch ^ | September 05, 2004

[11th_VA]

The Republicans put together a near flawless convention last week and two national polls show the president with an 11-point national lead. Newsweek has it Bush 54% to Kerry 43% and Time has it Bush 52% Kerry 41%. The convention was a huge success, and these polls show a legitimate bounce, but it’s very unlikely that President Bush can sustain such a lead. If he does, the Electoral College Scoreboard will be irrelevant as the numbers nationwide will be reflected in the states and President George W. Bush would win in a landslide.

[Terp]

I'm voting for Bush...but I remember last time when Carl Rove thought he had it wrapped up and we ended up with recounts and almost loosing. It was in all the papers.

And if I remember correctly Bush didn't even campaign the day before the election. I'm willing to bet if he'd spent that last day in Florida it wouldn't have been close and no recount held.

[gop_gene]

I'm voting for Bush...but I remember last time when Carl Rove thought he had it wrapped up and we ended up with recounts and almost loosing. It was in all the papers.

I'm sure the 2000 nightmare must have had Rove shaken in his judgement and this time around he'll (hopefully) leave nothing to chance. Looking back I think it was a mistake for Bush to take the last day or two off before the election, when all the while Gore was was out there campaigning. And the DUI thing--did they honestly think the dems wouldn't discover it? I think the best thing to would've been to come out with it themselves early on and have it settled, thus robbing the opposition of their (late, very late) October surprise.

I think another factor in last election being so close (notwithstanding voter fraud), despite polls showing Bush with a comfortable lead, was that he at the time was considered and criticized as being a lightweight (only 6 years as governor), so when the DUI stuff came out lots of insecure, wishy-washy types bolted from him to Gore.

But this time around, Bush is anything but a lightweight, so unless anything really scandalous (or can be twisted into being scandalous) comes out and/or the economy/the war goes really sour, we've got the leg up.

[Tall_Texan]

The Bush states: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming. (31 states 305 Electoral College votes)

The Kerry states: California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia. (19 states and DC 233 Electoral College votes)

That's certainly a rosy projection. Bush wins most of the close ones including Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. The good news is that no one of those states could give the election to Kerry if flipped. But if two of them flip, you've got trouble.

[jnarcus]

To be sure that this land slide comes about we need to get everyone out to vote for Bush in Nov....It is time for the grass roots to do what they do best and NO EXCUSES

[gop_gene]

kerry has carried the title of the come back kid. with clinton's wolfs on board, we have to make sure we all get out and vote for W.

While I agree we should never underestimate the opposition, that doesn't bowl me over--it's not too hard to be the come back kid when you're a liberal running in liberal Massachussetts. As for Carville and Begala, they would have to be miracle workers for there's only so much they can do with Kerry, who is certainly no Clinton. Maybe they can give Kerry a Clinton-personality transplant.

[Flightdeck]

"should ... sorry"

"indipendent"

[CyberAnt]

Yes, it's way too early .. and Gebhardt, along with others, are already saying that Bush cannot withstand this lead and it will end up being even again in about a week.

I DON'T THINK SO. Especially if the Navy Dept gets it's act together and finds out the truth about Kerry's medals. If the Navy exposes some kind of deception on Kerry's part - the election will be over. One Clinton was enough .. public will not buy another one.

[Mike1973]

Keep it up. The Democrats' tactics of election tampering can't work, if we win big.

[rineaux]

like the folks in florida who prepared for charley and frances, i say we stay alert and prepared.
carville and begala are going to kick up all sorts of dirt based on lies. it will convince some of the voters they need to motivate in the inner cities. sharpton and jackson will be out in full force too. the object is to close the gap that W has built.
hope skerry continues to talk about vietnam. it makes him look like a jackas%

[goldstategop]

Bush will win NH. That's already a given. The President is definitely ahead in WVA and has a good chance of picking up MN. IA and MI are toss-ups. At the end of the day, I'd love to see Kerry left with 10 states. More realistically, I'm betting he'll get 15 and the President takes the rest.

[capitan_refugio]

Vermont sends a socialist to Congress every two years! There is no way Bush can win there. He carried new hampshire last time, and might again, but New Hampshire is increasingly becoming the retirement state for worn out Massachusetts liberals. Maine is a toss-up. There is a good chance Bush can hold at least one of four electoral votes (Maine provides for spliting the electoral votes).

I don't think I would put much effort there, when there is so much more at stake in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconisin, and Florida.

[capitan_refugio]

Good call ... let's hope.

[Future Useless Eater]

>>Bush should campaign in North-East (expecially in Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire). He would take a fistful of Electoral votes!

Well he essentially DID campaign in Maine just a week before the convention. Remember that Bush 41 lives there, and ALL the Bush family including Bush 43 gathered a week before the convention for a wedding. They were seen on national news fishing at kennibuncport.

That may have generated more interest in Maine for the RNC as well. Either way, for whichever the reason, Maine seems to have shifted.

Here is the SurveyUSA/Neilsen results for MAINE

Survey USA/   Who Will                 Bush 
Nielsen       Win in     BEFORE AFTER  Improvement
Market Area   November?   RNC    RNC   Pre/Post-RNC
------------------------------------- 
   Market              8/26/04 9/3/04
------------- -------- ------- ------
StateOf MAINE Bush        47%    57%
              ----------------------  +18%
              Kerry       47%    39%
------------- ----------------------

52 posted on 09/06/2004 4:35:52 AM

[IrishBrigade12]

Yeah, crappy kickers and SEC officials...nice to have the zebras from the home conference when the games goes OT...maybe the DNC can hire those refs who'd blow the whistle on attempting to keep people from voting twice...

[Paleo Conservative]

Check out the AOL Straw Poll.

[SolomoninSouthDakota]

What does the ides of March have to do with anything. Isn't that March 16th? Or were you suggesting some stabbed in the back move by someone like McCain?

[Total Package]

I think Bush will pick up Michigan,Pennsylvania,New York and New Jersey. It is a 9/12 world not a 9/10.

[rineaux]

Yeah, crappy kickers and SEC officials...nice to have the zebras from the home conference when the games goes OT...

quack quack.

[rineaux]

beware the polls. i do think they are inflated. setting us up for the so called comeback kid (skerry). be prepared for some serious mud slinging from carville and his ilk.

bottom line, make sure we all vote.