[Tall_Texan]

The Bush states: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming. (31 states 305 Electoral College votes)

The Kerry states: California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia. (19 states and DC 233 Electoral College votes)

That's certainly a rosy projection. Bush wins most of the close ones including Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. The good news is that no one of those states could give the election to Kerry if flipped. But if two of them flip, you've got trouble.

[goldstategop]

Bush will win NH. That's already a given. The President is definitely ahead in WVA and has a good chance of picking up MN. IA and MI are toss-ups. At the end of the day, I'd love to see Kerry left with 10 states. More realistically, I'm betting he'll get 15 and the President takes the rest.