LABOR DAY POLLS in ELECTIONS OVER PAST 50 YEARS

AP/abilene2000.com ^ | September 1, 2000 | AP

[onyx]

Friday, September 1, 2000

Labor Day Polls

By The Associated Press

A look at where presidential candidates stood around Labor Day in elections over the past 50 years and outcome of the election. Data is from the Gallup Poll. Where results don't come close to 100 percent, it may be because of the presence a third-party candidate.

———

1996

— President Clinton led Bob Dole 54 percent to 36 percent in early September. Clinton won the election, 49 percent to 41 percent.

1992

— Clinton led George Bush 50 percent to 40 percent in mid-September. Clinton won, 43 percent to 37 percent.

1988

— Bush led Michael Dukakis 49 percent to 41 percent in mid-September. Bush won, 53 percent to 46 percent.

1984

— Ronald Reagan led Walter Mondale 56 percent to 37 percent in mid-September. Reagan won, 59 percent to 41 percent.

1980

— Jimmy Carter and Reagan were tied at 39 percent in mid-September. Reagan won, 51 percent to 41 percent.

1976

— Carter led Gerald Ford 51 percent to 40 percent in late September. Carter won, 50 percent to 48 percent.

1972

— Richard Nixon led George McGovern 61 percent to 33 percent in late September. Nixon won, 61 percent to 38 percent.

1968

— Nixon led Hubert Humphrey 43 percent to 31 percent in early September. Nixon won, 43.4 percent to 42.7 percent.

1964

— Lyndon Johnson led Barry Goldwater 62 percent to 32 percent in mid-September. Johnson won, 61 percent to 39 percent.

1960

— John F. Kennedy and Nixon were virtually tied in early September, though Kennedy was at 49 percent and Nixon at 46 percent by the end of the month. Kennedy won, 49.7 percent to 49.5 percent.

1956

— Dwight Eisenhower led Adlai Stevenson 52 percent to 41 percent in early September. Eisenhower won, 57 percent to 42 percent.

1952

— Eisenhower led Stevenson 55 percent to 40 percent in mid-September. Eisenhower won, 55 percent to 44 percent.

1948

— Thomas Dewey led Harry Truman 47 percent to 39 percent in early September. Truman won, 50 percent to 45 percent.

[RWR8189]

Polling had not yet come of age in 1948 as well.

[onyx]

Me too.
I think it'll be a GOOD poll for Bush/Cheney.

[deport]

This table details the standings of the candidates on Labor Day. Winning candidates are highlighted in bold letters. 

	Sample	Republican candidate	Democratic candidate	Third-party candidate	Third-party candidate
2000 Sep 4		Bush	Gore	Nader	Buchanan
2000 Sep 4-6	LV	44%	47	3	*
2000 Sep 4-6	RV	41%	47	3	1
1996 Sep 2		Dole	Clinton	Perot
1996 2-4	LV	36%	53	5
1996 2-4	RV	35%	54	5
1992 Sep 7		Bush	Clinton
1992 Sep 11-15	RV	42%	51
1988 Sep 5		Bush	Dukakis
1988 Sep 9-11	RV	49%	41
1984 Sep 3		Reagan	Mondale
1984 Sep 7-9	RV	55%	44
1980 Sep 1		Reagan	Carter	Anderson
1980 Sep 12-15	RV	37%	41	15
1976 Sep 6		Ford	Carter	McCarthy
1976 Sep 24-26	RV	40%	51	4
1972 Sep 4		Nixon	McGovern
1972 Sep 22-25	RV	61%	33
1968 Sep 2		Nixon	Humphrey	Wallace
1968 Sep 3-7	RV	43%	31	19
1964 Sep 7		Goldwater	Johnson
1964 Sep 18-23	RV	32%	62
1960 Sep 4		Nixon	Kennedy
1960 Sep 9-14	RV	47%	46
1956 Sep 3		Eisenhower	Stevenson
1956 Sep 9-14	RV	52%	41
1952 Sep 1		Eisenhower	Stevenson
1952 Sep 6-11	RV	56%	40
1948 Sep 6		Dewey	Truman	Wallace	Thurmond
1948 Sep 10-15	NA	47%	39	3	2
1944 Sep 4		Dewey	Roosevelt
1944 Sep 8-13	NA	45%	50
1940 Sep 2		Willkie	Roosevelt
1940 Sep 5-10	NA	40%	49
1936 Sep 7		Landon	Roosevelt	Lemke	Thomas
1936 Sep 7-12	NA	45%	49	5	1

Click

[deport]

Gallup's polling history allows us to examine the bounces that have occurred for both major-party candidates in each election since 1964.

Post-Convention Increases in Support, 1964-2004
Election	Candidate (incumbent in boldface)	Bounce (among registered voters)	Convention Order
2004	John Kerry	-1 point -2 points (likely voters)	1st
2000	George W. Bush	8 points 4 points (likely voters)	1st
2000	Al Gore	8 points 8 points (likely voters)	2nd
1996	Bill Clinton	5 points	2nd
1996	Bob Dole	3 points	1st
1992	Bill Clinton	16 points	1st
1992	George Bush	5 points	2nd
1988	George Bush	6 points	2nd
1988	Michael Dukakis	7 points	1st
1984	Ronald Reagan	4 points	2nd
1984	Walter Mondale	9 points	1st
1980	Ronald Reagan	8 points	1st
1980	Jimmy Carter	10 points	2nd
1976	Jimmy Carter	9 points	1st
1976	Gerald Ford	5 points	2nd
1972	Richard Nixon	7 points	2nd
1972	George McGovern	0 points	1st
1968	Richard Nixon	5 points	1st
1968	Hubert Humphrey	2 points	2nd
1964	Lyndon Johnson	3 points	2nd
1964	Barry Goldwater	5 points	1st

[speedy]

Hey thar 33 -- what's this retiree stuff? I may be tan, relaxed, well-traveled, debt-free and working on my own schedule -- but I ain't retired -- and not old enough (I am happy to report.) Have you been talking to my boss?

[uncbob]

It also seems to indicate the undecideds break for whoever is behind in the poll

[fhayek]

You gotta understand where Nixon was coming from. He narrowly lost (some say robbed) to Kennedy in 1960. Was raked over the coals in the '62 California Governor race. Came back in 1968, narrowly beating Humphrey, but still a minority president due to Wallace. He was in a word, fed up. One hears the story of election night, 1972. Nixon was winning state after state. It was the triumph of his lifetime. He should have been partying his butt off, but Nixon sat stoically watching the returns. I'm not excusing Watergate, but if you put it in historical context, it makes a little more sense.

[EagleLover]

Wow, this is a pretty strong indicator. It would be nice to have a progression chart showing the spread from a couple of months prior to labor day on through to the election. My guess is by labor day if a candidate was trending in one direction or the other they mosty kept going in that direction. This is the time that people are making up their minds. Once its made up thats pretty much it.

[chaosagent]

"Richard Nixon led George McGovern 61 percent to 33 percent in late September. Nixon won, 61 percent to 38 percent."

"Makes me really wonder why watergate happened."

Read G. Gordon Liddy's book and he'll tell you why it happened. And it probably wasn't what you think.

[writer33]

"Hey thar 33 -- what's this retiree stuff? I may be tan, relaxed, well-traveled, debt-free and working on my own schedule -- but I ain't retired -- and not old enough (I am happy to report.) Have you been talking to my boss?"


Here's my first question: How can you be debt free when so many are suffering under the Bush regime? :) Hehehe!

Second: I heard you were well into your sixties. Am I wrong? :) HA!

Third: And yes. Your boss has suggested an early retirement. Could this be from the bikini tan lines? :) Hehehehe!

Just kidding! ;-)

[demlosers]

CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
September 9-11

Likely Voters'
Choice for President

Gore 48%

Bush 42

Nader 4

Buchanan 1

Sampling error: +/-4% pts



COMPLETE TRACKING TREND ON HORSE RACE:

Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept.

4-6 5-7 6-8 7-9 8-10 9-11


Gore 47% 46% 45% 47% 49% 48%

Bush 44% 43% 46% 44 42 42

Nader 3 3 2 2 3 4

Buchanan * 1 1 1 1 1

[goldstategop]

Kerry will gain back some ground but not enough to affect the outcome. The race from here on out, is President Bush's to lose.

[dts32041]

The reason it happen is John Dean ordered they break in to get the little black book that showed was hooking.

The prez had nothing to do with and was just being loyal to his people , ie in the words of a former dc mayor, the b*tch dean set me up

[goldstategop]

It was a virtual tie in September 2000. Sure enough, the same thing happened on Election Day. Voter preferences are fairly stable in the fall.

[onyx]

Hey thanks deport! Now I'll have to bookmark my thread. LOL.

[speedy]

"Kerry will gain back some ground but not enough to affect the outcome. The race from here on out, is President Bush's to lose."

That's kind of how I see it too. Kerry is remarkably like Gore and Dukakis -- stiff, humorless, out of touch. It's amazing how they keep nominating these kinds of people. Wonder if W would be better served by sidestepping debates, with their potential for a mis-step? Or would he be so berated for chickening out that he would lose too much? I think the last President who did not debate his opponent was LBJ, and it sure didn't hurt him. Of course, the precedent was not so established then, either.

[onyx]

I have heard that POTUS will dump one of the debates.

[Victoria Delsoul]

Thanks for the info.

[Diddle E. Squat]

So the Labor Day leader has seen his lead shrink in all but 2 of the 14 elections from 1948 on.

-3 in 2000
-9
-3
-1
+7 in 1984
-14
-9
-5
-11
-8
-1
+4 in 1956
-5
-13

Average is a 5 point drop from Labor Day to the election, -6 if you throw out the 1984 anomaly. Average from 1964 on is -5.6, or -7 if you throw out 1984.

But of course this is way too small a sample size to read much into other than a general prediction, just like numerical analysis often fails to accurately predict the winner of football games.

[q_an_a]

nice work.