Posted on 09/05/2004 7:17:16 PM PDT by onyx
Friday, September 1, 2000
Labor Day Polls
By The Associated Press
A look at where presidential candidates stood around Labor Day in elections over the past 50 years and outcome of the election. Data is from the Gallup Poll. Where results don't come close to 100 percent, it may be because of the presence a third-party candidate.
———
1996
— President Clinton led Bob Dole 54 percent to 36 percent in early September. Clinton won the election, 49 percent to 41 percent.
1992
— Clinton led George Bush 50 percent to 40 percent in mid-September. Clinton won, 43 percent to 37 percent.
1988
— Bush led Michael Dukakis 49 percent to 41 percent in mid-September. Bush won, 53 percent to 46 percent.
1984
— Ronald Reagan led Walter Mondale 56 percent to 37 percent in mid-September. Reagan won, 59 percent to 41 percent.
1980
— Jimmy Carter and Reagan were tied at 39 percent in mid-September. Reagan won, 51 percent to 41 percent.
1976
— Carter led Gerald Ford 51 percent to 40 percent in late September. Carter won, 50 percent to 48 percent.
1972
— Richard Nixon led George McGovern 61 percent to 33 percent in late September. Nixon won, 61 percent to 38 percent.
1968
— Nixon led Hubert Humphrey 43 percent to 31 percent in early September. Nixon won, 43.4 percent to 42.7 percent.
1964
— Lyndon Johnson led Barry Goldwater 62 percent to 32 percent in mid-September. Johnson won, 61 percent to 39 percent.
1960
— John F. Kennedy and Nixon were virtually tied in early September, though Kennedy was at 49 percent and Nixon at 46 percent by the end of the month. Kennedy won, 49.7 percent to 49.5 percent.
1956
— Dwight Eisenhower led Adlai Stevenson 52 percent to 41 percent in early September. Eisenhower won, 57 percent to 42 percent.
1952
— Eisenhower led Stevenson 55 percent to 40 percent in mid-September. Eisenhower won, 55 percent to 44 percent.
1948
— Thomas Dewey led Harry Truman 47 percent to 39 percent in early September. Truman won, 50 percent to 45 percent.
No incumbant with a lead of five points or greater after Labor Day has ever lost. W will almost assuredly be up by at least five in the next Gallup poll. Lets hope history again repeats.
Pinged for future reference
ping
Carter and Reagan were tied in mid September.
Must have been the "there you go again" debate
that sealed it for Reagan.
The good news is, that since 1960 at least, the candidate ahead at Labor Day won the election. The bad news is that in virtually every case, the candidate behind gained ground. I guess the key is, be far enough ahead on Labor Day and you should win it.
I have always wondered about that.
So stupid. Nixon was the overwhelming favorite.
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1216
It looks like Bush was up 47-46, and Gore won the popular vote by considerably less than 1%.
Looking at the rest of the numbers from the article you posted, the only candidate who has overcome a deficit of the one Kerry now faces is Harry Truman -- and he had the advantages of incumbency.
Carter lost in '80 after the 2nd debate, as I recall. Are you better off than you were 4 years ago??
Bush is running an excellent campaign. Unless he botches the debates, which I don't see him doing, I expect him to win in November. It could be close, or it could be a blowout
I've long wondered about that. The answer seems to be that Nixon truly was paranoid and never felt like his position was safe, even when it was.
What was the Gallup data showing in 2000 for Bush/Gore on Labor Day?
To: onyx
It's here:
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1216
It looks like Bush was up 47-46, and Gore won the popular vote by considerably less than 1%.
Gallup Ping
FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.
"The good news is, that since 1960 at least, the candidate ahead at Labor Day won the election. The bad news is that in virtually every case, the candidate behind gained ground. I guess the key is, be far enough ahead on Labor Day and you should win it."
That is exactly it. Because on Labor Day, and a well traveled retiree like yourself should know this, Americans start paying attention to the Presidential races. So, if you can get 'em while they're vacationing, then you'll certainly get 'em while they're paying attention!
Didn't Carter say he asked daughter Amy for help in foreign policy? Wasn't that in one of the debates?
Good point.
Thanks. Looks like the Gallup Labor Day poll is a pretty good barometer of the final outcome. Keeping my fingers crossed for a good Bush showing in tomorrow's Gallup!
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