No incumbant with a lead of five points or greater after Labor Day has ever lost. W will almost assuredly be up by at least five in the next Gallup poll. Lets hope history again repeats.
ping
The good news is, that since 1960 at least, the candidate ahead at Labor Day won the election. The bad news is that in virtually every case, the candidate behind gained ground. I guess the key is, be far enough ahead on Labor Day and you should win it.
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1216
It looks like Bush was up 47-46, and Gore won the popular vote by considerably less than 1%.
Looking at the rest of the numbers from the article you posted, the only candidate who has overcome a deficit of the one Kerry now faces is Harry Truman -- and he had the advantages of incumbency.
What was the Gallup data showing in 2000 for Bush/Gore on Labor Day?
Gallup Ping
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|
|
Sample |
Republican candidate |
Democratic candidate |
Third-party candidate |
Third-party candidate |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 Sep 4 |
|
Bush |
Gore |
Nader |
Buchanan |
|
2000 Sep 4-6 |
LV |
44% |
47 |
3 |
* |
|
2000 Sep 4-6 |
RV |
41% |
47 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1996 Sep 2 |
|
Dole |
Clinton |
Perot |
|
|
1996 2-4 |
LV |
36% |
53 |
5 |
|
|
1996 2-4 |
RV |
35% |
54 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1992 Sep 7 |
|
Bush |
Clinton |
|
|
|
1992 Sep 11-15 |
RV |
42% |
51 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1988 Sep 5 |
|
Bush |
Dukakis |
|
|
|
1988 Sep 9-11 |
RV |
49% |
41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1984 Sep 3 |
|
Reagan |
Mondale |
|
|
|
1984 Sep 7-9 |
RV |
55% |
44 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1980 Sep 1 |
|
Reagan |
Carter |
Anderson |
|
|
1980 Sep 12-15 |
RV |
37% |
41 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1976 Sep 6 |
|
Ford |
Carter |
McCarthy |
|
|
1976 Sep 24-26 |
RV |
40% |
51 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1972 Sep 4 |
|
Nixon |
McGovern |
|
|
|
1972 Sep 22-25 |
RV |
61% |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1968 Sep 2 |
|
Nixon |
Humphrey |
Wallace |
|
|
1968 Sep 3-7 |
RV |
43% |
31 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1964 Sep 7 |
|
Goldwater |
Johnson |
|
|
|
1964 Sep 18-23 |
RV |
32% |
62 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1960 Sep 4 |
|
Nixon |
Kennedy |
|
|
|
1960 Sep 9-14 |
RV |
47% |
46 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1956 Sep 3 |
|
Eisenhower |
Stevenson |
|
|
|
1956 Sep 9-14 |
RV |
52% |
41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1952 Sep 1 |
|
Eisenhower |
Stevenson |
|
|
|
1952 Sep 6-11 |
RV |
56% |
40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1948 Sep 6 |
|
Dewey |
Truman |
Wallace |
Thurmond |
|
1948 Sep 10-15 |
NA |
47% |
39 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1944 Sep 4 |
|
Dewey |
Roosevelt |
|
|
|
1944 Sep 8-13 |
NA |
45% |
50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1940 Sep 2 |
|
Willkie |
Roosevelt |
|
|
|
1940 Sep 5-10 |
NA |
40% |
49 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1936 Sep 7 |
|
Landon |
Roosevelt |
Lemke |
Thomas |
|
1936 Sep 7-12 |
NA |
45% |
49 |
5 |
1 |
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
September 9-11
Likely Voters'
Choice for President
Gore 48%
Bush 42
Nader 4
Buchanan 1
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
COMPLETE TRACKING TREND ON HORSE RACE:
Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept.
4-6 5-7 6-8 7-9 8-10 9-11
Gore 47% 46% 45% 47% 49% 48%
Bush 44% 43% 46% 44 42 42
Nader 3 3 2 2 3 4
Buchanan * 1 1 1 1 1
nice work.
Pollsters learned a lot from that 1948 fiasco, like not polling from phone books when most of middle America didn't have phones...
McGovern had ZERO bounce, Humphrey had +2 points, and Dole had +3 points.
There just had to be that one clunker in there! lol
Now we're hearing these stats saying the opposite.
I say a lot can happen between now and Nov 2.
**1948
— Thomas Dewey led Harry Truman 47 percent to 39 percent in early September. Truman won, 50 percent to 45 percent.**
Only one that didn't follow the pattern.
Hmm...the one historical trend I'm seeing here is that the numbers don't change too much from the Labor Day poll to the election results -- suggesting that most people make up their mind by Labor Day.
Good find! Thanks for posting this timely info!