LABOR DAY POLLS in ELECTIONS OVER PAST 50 YEARS

AP/abilene2000.com ^ | September 1, 2000 | AP

[Mike Fieschko]

I think the last President who did not debate his opponent was LBJ

There were no debates in 1968 (Nixon - Herbert Humphreys* - Wallace) or 1972.

* Pat Paulsen

[speedy]

Thanks for the word. And also the reminder of Pat Paulsen -- I think he actually did get one percent of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, making him less of a political joke than Kucinich or Moseley Braun.

[lancer]

Pollsters learned a lot from that 1948 fiasco, like not polling from phone books when most of middle America didn't have phones...

[onyx]

Right.
The polling was too slow to keep abreast of the changing mood of the voters.

[185JHP]

SUVs hadn't been invented yet. Republicans spent their money buying telephones, so they were overrepreseted in the polling.

[Mercat]

I thought that Gore was up 10 points over Bush in 2000 on Labor day.

[vox humana]

According to the data on post #24, Kerry is the ONLY candidate to ever have a NEGATIVE convention bounce.

McGovern had ZERO bounce, Humphrey had +2 points, and Dole had +3 points.

[Brandon]

1936 was the election you're thinking of -- Literary Digest did a telephone poll, and since mostly wealthy people had phones, and they were mostly Republicans, they got a bad result.

What happened in 1948 was that pollsters didn't realize how quickly public opinion could shift. They saw Dewey with what they thought was an insurmountable lead, and stopped polling about a month or six weeks before the election -- why waste money when it's a done deal, right? Truman proved them wrong.

[rdl6989]

Pat Paulsen -- I think he actually did get one percent of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, making him less of a political joke than Kucinich or Moseley Braun Ouch! Sometimess the truth hurts. To be outperformed by a comedian, a man who has no serious intention of being elected, is BAD!

[onyx]

I saw THAT!
Bodes well for Bush/Cheney, doesn't it?

[GaretGarrett]

Re; Watergate. Ann Coulter's "High Crimes & Misdemeanors" has some interesting info on the subject.

In 25 words or less, what's Liddy's take?

[speedy]

And a comedian who wasn't even all that funny!! Although I guess at the time he made me laugh once or twice. Of course, Kucinich made me laugh a few times too. I'll never forget pompous old Cronkite having to announce "comedian Pat Paulsen appears to have gotten one percent of the vote." You could tell he thought it was beneath his dignity to have to say it.

[ET(end tyranny)]

— Thomas Dewey led Harry Truman 47 percent to 39 percent in early September. Truman won, 50 percent to 45 percent.

There just had to be that one clunker in there! lol

[goldstategop]

Public opinion COULD still shift back to Kerry - if he can get a personality makeover AND present a message the country is looking for. It may take a lot of flip-flops to hit on the winning formula. ;-)

[onyx]

Hey you!
How ARE you?

[Jorge]

For the past few months we've been hearing the Dems say that no President EVER won re-election with an approval rating lower than 50%...as Bush's was.

Now we're hearing these stats saying the opposite.

I say a lot can happen between now and Nov 2.

[ET(end tyranny)]

Good onyx, and you? :)

[goldstategop]

Look at my post #54. Like I wrote, that's a LOT of flip-flops to connect with average Joe by November 2nd. Kerry might as well go for broke.

[onyx]

Just fine, ET.
I am thrilled to see you.

[SuziQ]

Makes me really wonder why watergate happened.

I saw an investigative report show on A&E a few years ago that surmised that the break in had NOTHING to do with Nixon's re-election. This show concluded that John Dean ordered the break in because his then girlfriend's name was on a list of 'Escorts' in someone's little black book in that office. The burglars stole the book, but got caught in the process.

I guess Nixon just covered for John Dean and got screwed in the process because the media was out to get him anyway, and pounced on the opportunity that was presented to them by his desire for secrecy.