LABOR DAY POLLS in ELECTIONS OVER PAST 50 YEARS

AP/abilene2000.com ^ | September 1, 2000 | AP

[onyx]

Friday, September 1, 2000

Labor Day Polls

By The Associated Press

A look at where presidential candidates stood around Labor Day in elections over the past 50 years and outcome of the election. Data is from the Gallup Poll. Where results don't come close to 100 percent, it may be because of the presence a third-party candidate.

———

1996

— President Clinton led Bob Dole 54 percent to 36 percent in early September. Clinton won the election, 49 percent to 41 percent.

1992

— Clinton led George Bush 50 percent to 40 percent in mid-September. Clinton won, 43 percent to 37 percent.

1988

— Bush led Michael Dukakis 49 percent to 41 percent in mid-September. Bush won, 53 percent to 46 percent.

1984

— Ronald Reagan led Walter Mondale 56 percent to 37 percent in mid-September. Reagan won, 59 percent to 41 percent.

1980

— Jimmy Carter and Reagan were tied at 39 percent in mid-September. Reagan won, 51 percent to 41 percent.

1976

— Carter led Gerald Ford 51 percent to 40 percent in late September. Carter won, 50 percent to 48 percent.

1972

— Richard Nixon led George McGovern 61 percent to 33 percent in late September. Nixon won, 61 percent to 38 percent.

1968

— Nixon led Hubert Humphrey 43 percent to 31 percent in early September. Nixon won, 43.4 percent to 42.7 percent.

1964

— Lyndon Johnson led Barry Goldwater 62 percent to 32 percent in mid-September. Johnson won, 61 percent to 39 percent.

1960

— John F. Kennedy and Nixon were virtually tied in early September, though Kennedy was at 49 percent and Nixon at 46 percent by the end of the month. Kennedy won, 49.7 percent to 49.5 percent.

1956

— Dwight Eisenhower led Adlai Stevenson 52 percent to 41 percent in early September. Eisenhower won, 57 percent to 42 percent.

1952

— Eisenhower led Stevenson 55 percent to 40 percent in mid-September. Eisenhower won, 55 percent to 44 percent.

1948

— Thomas Dewey led Harry Truman 47 percent to 39 percent in early September. Truman won, 50 percent to 45 percent.

[Mike Fieschko]

I think the last President who did not debate his opponent was LBJ

There were no debates in 1968 (Nixon - Herbert Humphreys* - Wallace) or 1972.

* Pat Paulsen

[speedy]

Thanks for the word. And also the reminder of Pat Paulsen -- I think he actually did get one percent of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, making him less of a political joke than Kucinich or Moseley Braun.

[lancer]

Pollsters learned a lot from that 1948 fiasco, like not polling from phone books when most of middle America didn't have phones...

[onyx]

Right.
The polling was too slow to keep abreast of the changing mood of the voters.

[185JHP]

SUVs hadn't been invented yet. Republicans spent their money buying telephones, so they were overrepreseted in the polling.

[Mercat]

I thought that Gore was up 10 points over Bush in 2000 on Labor day.

[vox humana]

According to the data on post #24, Kerry is the ONLY candidate to ever have a NEGATIVE convention bounce.

McGovern had ZERO bounce, Humphrey had +2 points, and Dole had +3 points.

[Brandon]

1936 was the election you're thinking of -- Literary Digest did a telephone poll, and since mostly wealthy people had phones, and they were mostly Republicans, they got a bad result.

What happened in 1948 was that pollsters didn't realize how quickly public opinion could shift. They saw Dewey with what they thought was an insurmountable lead, and stopped polling about a month or six weeks before the election -- why waste money when it's a done deal, right? Truman proved them wrong.

[rdl6989]

Pat Paulsen -- I think he actually did get one percent of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, making him less of a political joke than Kucinich or Moseley Braun Ouch! Sometimess the truth hurts. To be outperformed by a comedian, a man who has no serious intention of being elected, is BAD!

[onyx]

I saw THAT!
Bodes well for Bush/Cheney, doesn't it?

[GaretGarrett]

Re; Watergate. Ann Coulter's "High Crimes & Misdemeanors" has some interesting info on the subject.

In 25 words or less, what's Liddy's take?

[speedy]

And a comedian who wasn't even all that funny!! Although I guess at the time he made me laugh once or twice. Of course, Kucinich made me laugh a few times too. I'll never forget pompous old Cronkite having to announce "comedian Pat Paulsen appears to have gotten one percent of the vote." You could tell he thought it was beneath his dignity to have to say it.

[ET(end tyranny)]

— Thomas Dewey led Harry Truman 47 percent to 39 percent in early September. Truman won, 50 percent to 45 percent.

There just had to be that one clunker in there! lol

[goldstategop]

Public opinion COULD still shift back to Kerry - if he can get a personality makeover AND present a message the country is looking for. It may take a lot of flip-flops to hit on the winning formula. ;-)

[onyx]

Hey you!
How ARE you?

[Jorge]

For the past few months we've been hearing the Dems say that no President EVER won re-election with an approval rating lower than 50%...as Bush's was.

Now we're hearing these stats saying the opposite.

I say a lot can happen between now and Nov 2.

[ET(end tyranny)]

Good onyx, and you? :)

[goldstategop]

Look at my post #54. Like I wrote, that's a LOT of flip-flops to connect with average Joe by November 2nd. Kerry might as well go for broke.

[onyx]

Just fine, ET.
I am thrilled to see you.

[SuziQ]

Makes me really wonder why watergate happened.

I saw an investigative report show on A&E a few years ago that surmised that the break in had NOTHING to do with Nixon's re-election. This show concluded that John Dean ordered the break in because his then girlfriend's name was on a list of 'Escorts' in someone's little black book in that office. The burglars stole the book, but got caught in the process.

I guess Nixon just covered for John Dean and got screwed in the process because the media was out to get him anyway, and pounced on the opportunity that was presented to them by his desire for secrecy.