Posted on 09/04/2004 10:43:07 AM PDT by Nascardude
I know this poll has already been posted. But the internals are even more devistating to Kerry and the Democrats.
In the Red states, solid Republican, Bush leads Kerry 56-37
In the Purple states, or swing states Bush leads Kerry 51-42
In the Blue states, or states that are suppose to be solid Democrat. BUSH LEADS KERRY 47-44
Kerry is having trouble just keeping his base at this point!! No wonder he's cracking up.
**REGIONAL DEFINITIONS Republican states: AL, AK, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, VA, WY
Swing states: AZ, AR, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA, TN, WA, WV, WI
Democratic states: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT
I believe that this occurs because they set out to make a certain number of "successful" phone calls. They ask the party affiliation of each. It just happens that there were more Republicans than Democrats in those "successful" calls.
Since the registration numbers are nearly equal between D's and R's, one would expect closer numbers in a random sample. They do not intentionally set out to oversample one party over another.
I'm not a statistician but I would assume that there is some reasonable way to "normalize" the results randomly (a la Zogby's "special sauce"). Whether or not they did this, I don't know.
"The President has had a very good convention following a good week where he also dominated the news with his own message: leadership, strength, decisiveness," says pollster John Zogby. "The President has widened his lead in the Red States and tightened things up considerably in the Blue States. For the first time in months he now leads among Independents and Catholics."
Science Christian Monitor
http://www.csmonitor.com/earlyed/early_usa0903.htm
Its a "Mad Mad Mad World" It's there Right under the big W I tell Ya, the landslide is right under the big W !!
Did anybody notice the 34% of 'non-white' voters for Bush? If true, this is a death knell for the Democrats for decades to come.
BTTT!
REPUBLICANS OVERSAMPLED: NEWSWEEK TRYING TO LEAD WITH A HEADLINE NEXT POLLING CYCLE OF "SHOCKING BUSH FALL AFTER HUGE LEAD..."
This poll is BS.
This would almost certainly backfire on John F. Kerry. The more people see of him, the less likely they are to vote for him. If he could run as "someone other than Bush", and never present his image on TV, he would stand a chance, especially in states like VT. But, he can't. His ads only remind people of his essential lack of substance and of the gulf of trust between him and W.
>>Republicans have been ridiculously oversampled.
You might be right but if the Democrats are as demoralized on election day as they are today, these proportions might be pretty predictive. If Bush is clearly ahead on election day, I expect a very low Democrat turnout. Low enough in fact to seriously threaten a couple of otherwise safe Democrat Senate seats (such as Murray in Washington and Reid in Nevada).
True, but Bush may be doing very very well in California at this point. Do I want him to spend any money there? No. But he's probably tied there currently, though Kerry will pull back into the lead as the bounce subsides a bit.
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Three-Way Trial Heat
Total Bush Total Kerry Total Nader Undec./
/Cheney /Edwards /Camejo Other Current Total 52 41 3 4 =100
Thursday interviews 49 43 3 5 =100
Friday interviews 54 38 4 4 =100 Republicans 94 4 1 1 =100
Democrats 14 82 1 3 =100
Independents 45 40 9 6 =100 Men 54 39 4 3 =100
Women 50 43 2 5 =100 18-29 45 45 9 1 =100
30-49 56 37 3 4 =100
50+ 50 44 1 5 =100 Southern White 66 30 1 3 =100
Non-Southern White 51 41 4 4 =100
Non-White 34 56 4 6 =100 Military households 58 36 2 4 =100
Non-military households 48 43 4 5 =100 Republican states 56 37 2 5 =100
Swing states 51 42 3 4 =100
Democratic states 47 44 5 4 =100
Though the race could hardly be statistically closer, a new poll by Zogby International indicates a likely convention "bounce" for the Republican ticket. The poll of likely voters taken during the GOP gathering in New York gives Bush-Cheney a two-point lead over Kerry-Edwards (46-44).
http://www.csmonitor.com/earlyed/early_usa0903.htm
He looked like looney the other night. ""
Did you get to see it all? I don't have Direct Tv, etc.
Many comments here say that he was DRUNK or on meds of some kind. What do you think? Drunk?
There was something yesterday on FR and he explained that the breakdown is about 33 persent etc. But your statement was republicans were over sampled.
I see if I can find the link.
So you believe that the limit was successful calls? I'll accept that, but do you think that it is a cost issue? Again I'm no statistician either but that seems to be a strange limit. However, I understand that there many be a valid reason for this criteria.
I live in MA and we keep a boat in a marina on the South Shore. All of our dockmates are hardworking people and they almost exclusively MA born. My husband and I are transplants. I have been amazed at the support for President Bush among these people. The most interesting thing to me is that the few ,who appear to be Democrats, almost seem ashamed to let the rest know. They remain very quiet in all discussions political while the Republicans are all "in your face" proud.
Here is the link that I mentioned;
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1206833/posts
"27 Percent of Registered Voters Think Bush/Cheney Campaign Is Behind Swift Boat Ads"
Yes, and
27% of Registered voters never vote.
27% of Registered voters think Michael Moore makes documentary films.
27% of Registered voters think Bush planned 9-11.
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