Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert

N/A | 2004-09-03 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)






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First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):


ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.


GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.


GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!


EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.


UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.


NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.


The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.

Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.



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EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:


HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Hurricane Basics

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/




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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website



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[kingattax]

F'n Frances

[kingattax]

rush lives on the island of palm beach

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

Tell me about it. Right now, I'm stirring the final embers of my Gaston debris fire. My storm clean up is just done.

[My Favorite Headache]

The 2 AM map is out: Seems to be putting Frances north of lake okeechobee around north vero beach...still holding similar to 11...so I wonder if no big changes for 5 am as far as track. I heard this lady on local news 13 say landfall would be in Martin County...I wanted to throw my remote at the TV...such crap. Indian River/Brevard....nobody is talking Martin county.

[raygun]

Last I heard, the Bahama's main, mizzen and spankers have been stowed, and only a smidgen of the fore-topmost staysail is furled enough for the bow to catch the wind. Things could get a little dicey when the Bahama's get near the coast though. Although keeping the island from running aground will prove to be a real bear once they get near the coast, ya know? The real test of seamanship will be proven if they'll have to tack into the wind. Frankly, I believe this is their best chance in a long time joining the mainland. Heck, they might just get close enough so as to allow a bridge be built to 'em.

[danamco]

Where does Rush live? Isn't he on the coast near West Palm Beach?

He is on an Island there, and yesterday he talked about it and ended the comments: "And soon to be homeless"!

[dan_s]

hurricane frances intermediate advisory number 37a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
2 am edt fri sep 03 2004

...frances weakens slightly more ...still a dangerous category three hurricane moving through the bahamas...

a hurricane warning is in effect for the east coast of florida from florida city northward to flagler beach...including lake okeechobee. a hurricane warning also remains in effect for the central and northwestern bahamas.

a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for the middle and upper florida keys from south of florida city southward to the seven mile bridge...including florida bay.

a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

at 2 am edt...0600z...the eye of hurricane frances was located by reconnaissance aircraft and radar near latitude 24.7 north... longitude 75.7 west or near the northern end of cat island. this is also about 310 miles...495 km...east-southeast of the florida lower east coast.

frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...14 km/hr ...and a west-northwest to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. on this track...the core of hurricane frances will continue to move near or over the central bahamas this morning...and over the northwestern bahamas later today.

reports from an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds are now near 120 mph...195 km/hr...with higher gusts. frances is still a strong category three hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane scale. some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours.

hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km.

the latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 954 mb...28.17 inches.

storm surge flooding of 6 to 14 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the eye of frances on the west side of eleuthera island...and on the north side of grand bahama island. storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west side of the other islands of the bahamas. coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 11 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in florida.

rainfall amounts of 7 to 12 inches...locally as high as 20 inches...are possible in association with frances.

swells generated by frances will be affecting portions of the southeastern coast of the united states. these swells could cause dangerous surf and rip currents.

repeating the 2 am edt position...24.7 n... 75.7 w. movement toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. maximum sustained winds...120 mph. minimum central pressure... 954 mb.

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 5 am edt.

[danamco]

I hope my aunt will be OK. She's a tough little lady, 90 years old and lives alone. Floridians sure have had more than their share of problems! Hope it's over soon and that everyone will be safe.

Another system is brewing off the African coast right now!!!

[My Favorite Headache]

7 hrs of shearing winds left according to models..I wonder if this will be brought down to 100 mph winds... NHC is back predicting the storm to be at 105 mph winds tomorrow and back up to 135 by late Friday night.

[danamco]

"Andrew" is "seared, real seared" in our minds. We remember this like the Swifters remember Mr. sKerry!!!

[My Favorite Headache]

Frances in big trouble right now....100 mph surface winds is the highest recorded....954 is lowest pressure...the shear is doing a number on her. Wow..I can't believe NHC did not see the shear being this bad.

015
URNT12 KNHC 030528
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/0528Z
B. 24 DEG 43 MIN N
75 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2693 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 210 DEG 83 KT
G. 132 DEG 37 NM
H. 954 MB
I. 12 C/ 3065 M
J. 20 C/ 3064 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/7
O. .1/ 2 NM
P. AF985 2006A FRANCES OB 35
MAX FL WIND 92 KT E QUAD 0304Z.

[Squantos]

My brother is there too. He just bailed with his wife and kids to friends house in Macon GA...... Grabbed the doggy, the family pics, important papers and the Kimber 1911A1 I gave him. Said he called the insurance agent to make sure all was in order and was getting the hell out of Melbourne Florida . Don't risk it MFH if ya don't have to !

Stay safe !

[texasflower]

Why do y'all call him Jerry Rivers? Is that his real name or is it just a parody of his name?

[Keith in Iowa]

>>Why do y'all call him Jerry Rivers? Is that his real name or is it just a parody of his name?

I do it sort of as a mock...the rest of the story is at:

http://www.snopes.com/media/celebrity/geraldo.asp

[longtermmemmory]

bump, thank you for the information

[kimmie7]

I have 2 young God-daughters 5 minutes from the beach in Melborne. Their idiot stepfather is "ridin it out" -- they're transplants...never been through a hurricaine. I'm worried sick about the kids. Praying for everyone there....

[Tunehead54]

Is that your detailed graphic of FL map with wind speeds as Frances crosses FL? If not your source? Outstanding graphic if accurate! (Tampa Bay) ;-)

[Squantos]

Prayers for your loved ones.........

Stay safe !

[Straight Vermonter]

Mickey and Goofy better batten down the hatches.

[texasflower]

Okay. I always fully support mocking him!