Posted on 09/02/2004 9:02:41 PM PDT by Patton@Bastogne
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Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)
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First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):
ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.
GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.
GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!
EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.
UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.
NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.
The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.
Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.
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EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:
HURRICANE ALLEY
U.S. Weather Observers
Hurricane Basics
NOAA Hurricane FAQs
Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/
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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.
General George S. Patton Jr. Website
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The report I read had Frances highest winds at 100 mph. Eye wall gone, and very unorganized, doesn't sound like a strong cat 3 to me, might reorganize but if not Fla will have gotten very lucky. Also sat images not longer show a monster hurricane like they did weds/thurs.
Yes, the most important. Make sure you have all important documents with you. House insurance policy, car insurance, passport, birth certificates, etc... Put them all in a large ziplock bag and keep it with you at all times.
Where in FLA do you live? I hope you're safely out of the projected path.
also thought of cash and gas...Thanks! peanut butter and salami
Yea well for some reason I'm not surprised he's up there
Anyhow, he said it looked like eye wall was reforming
The warm water of the Gulfstream provides warmer air (as well as more water vapor) and increases its strength.
But it hasn't reached the Gulf Stream yet, either, which is going to pump a bunch of hot water under her. We saw what happened to Charley after he crossed Cuba and hit the Gulf Stream. He jumped two categories in about 6 hours.
I'm not suggesting that this will happen here because I haven't looked at the models yet or figured out what caused the unexpected shearing. Maybe Frances will deteriorate to a big tropical storm before landfall. It would be interesting to see the rage of Floridians toward the NHC if that happens.
Anyone want to suggest funny things to spray paint on the plywood covering my windows? :)
Lighten up, Frances
Loot, and die.
The local news are the ones hyping it, not the NHC. Local news is fueling the panic here big time. I am very surprised they haven't started playing archive footage from Andrew and running stories with captions like, "What to do after your house looks like this."
Was thinking 'Kerry Blows Harder'.
Unfortunately I need to keep my biggest canvas, the wood on the living room windows, clean in case I need to write insurance policy info on it.
Advertise a yard sale on Monday.
Just got done boarding up my house. I hate to say it but at this point if Frances decides to peter out and just become a big rainstorm I'll probably cry ;-)
On Friday the 13th after I had boarded up for Charley I was in and out of the house every few minutes drinking coffee and watching the neighborhood. Somehow one of my buddies snuck over and in red spray paint wrote "VOTE KERRY" and "DEMOCRATS ROCK" on a couple of my windows.
It would have been much funnier if I had thought to get him first.
I've had that same experience; when Fran was coming to NC, I warned my niece and her sorority sisters to get gas, cash, candles, water, batteries, etc. They were sophomores and "knew better," you know?
Well, after Fran tore Chapel Hill apartment, they were true believers; when Floyd came, I opened my door to 25 sorority girls and their "stuff" for 3 days..........argh!
apartment=apart, of course.
I'm sure you're exhausted. I have a gut feeling this storm will regroup/strengthen just like Andrew did. Get some rest NOW while you can.
Delta Nu? ;-)
ROTFLMAO!!!!!! One of my friends who will be here during the storm is a die hard democrat. She has all the anti-Bush stickers on her car. I think I am going to have some fun at her place. Thanks for the idea. :)
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