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Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert
N/A | 2004-09-03 | Patton@Bastogne

Posted on 09/02/2004 9:02:41 PM PDT by Patton@Bastogne

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Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)






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First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):


ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.


GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.


GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!


EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.


UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.


NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.


The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.

Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.




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EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:


HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Hurricane Basics

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/




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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website



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TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Delaware; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: South Carolina; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: florida; frances; hurricane; hurricanefrances; weather
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To: Dog Gone

The report I read had Frances highest winds at 100 mph. Eye wall gone, and very unorganized, doesn't sound like a strong cat 3 to me, might reorganize but if not Fla will have gotten very lucky. Also sat images not longer show a monster hurricane like they did weds/thurs.


121 posted on 09/03/2004 7:09:17 AM PDT by jpsb (Nominated 1994 "Worst writer on the net")
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To: JHENN22499
Did I forget anything?

Yes, the most important. Make sure you have all important documents with you. House insurance policy, car insurance, passport, birth certificates, etc... Put them all in a large ziplock bag and keep it with you at all times.

122 posted on 09/03/2004 7:10:58 AM PDT by killjoy (Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain)
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To: VeniVidiVici

Where in FLA do you live? I hope you're safely out of the projected path.


123 posted on 09/03/2004 7:15:59 AM PDT by NotJustAnotherPrettyFace (Michael <a href = "http://www.michaelmoore.com/" title="Miserable Failure">"Miserable Failure"</a>)
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To: killjoy

also thought of cash and gas...Thanks! peanut butter and salami


124 posted on 09/03/2004 7:24:10 AM PDT by JHENN22499
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To: Dog Gone
Oh brother

Yea well for some reason I'm not surprised he's up there

Anyhow, he said it looked like eye wall was reforming

125 posted on 09/03/2004 7:24:10 AM PDT by Mo1 (FR NEWS ALERT .... John Kerry over dosed on Botox and thinks he's Bob KerrEy)
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To: PJ-Comix
What effect does the Gulfstream have on hurricanes as they pass over it?

The warm water of the Gulfstream provides warmer air (as well as more water vapor) and increases its strength.

126 posted on 09/03/2004 7:24:18 AM PDT by Ranxerox
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To: jpsb
It certainly appears to have weakened, and the NHC may be overstating the current strength out of caution. It definitely is getting some shearing which was not in the forecast.

But it hasn't reached the Gulf Stream yet, either, which is going to pump a bunch of hot water under her. We saw what happened to Charley after he crossed Cuba and hit the Gulf Stream. He jumped two categories in about 6 hours.

I'm not suggesting that this will happen here because I haven't looked at the models yet or figured out what caused the unexpected shearing. Maybe Frances will deteriorate to a big tropical storm before landfall. It would be interesting to see the rage of Floridians toward the NHC if that happens.

127 posted on 09/03/2004 7:31:59 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: All

Anyone want to suggest funny things to spray paint on the plywood covering my windows? :)


128 posted on 09/03/2004 7:33:44 AM PDT by killjoy (Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain)
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To: killjoy

Lighten up, Frances


129 posted on 09/03/2004 7:34:42 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: killjoy

Loot, and die.


130 posted on 09/03/2004 7:36:12 AM PDT by petercooper (Kerry passes up terror briefing: "They have offered to brief me. I just haven't had time.")
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To: Dog Gone
It would be interesting to see the rage of Floridians toward the NHC if that happens.

The local news are the ones hyping it, not the NHC. Local news is fueling the panic here big time. I am very surprised they haven't started playing archive footage from Andrew and running stories with captions like, "What to do after your house looks like this."

131 posted on 09/03/2004 7:36:19 AM PDT by killjoy (Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain)
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To: Dog Gone
Lighten up, Frances

Was thinking 'Kerry Blows Harder'.

Unfortunately I need to keep my biggest canvas, the wood on the living room windows, clean in case I need to write insurance policy info on it.

132 posted on 09/03/2004 7:38:31 AM PDT by killjoy (Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain)
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To: killjoy

Advertise a yard sale on Monday.


133 posted on 09/03/2004 7:39:00 AM PDT by AppyPappy (If You're Not A Part Of The Solution, There's Good Money To Be Made In Prolonging The Problem.)
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To: NotJustAnotherPrettyFace
Thanks for asking. I live about 15 miles north of Orlando.

Just got done boarding up my house. I hate to say it but at this point if Frances decides to peter out and just become a big rainstorm I'll probably cry ;-)

134 posted on 09/03/2004 7:40:34 AM PDT by VeniVidiVici (Not Fonda Kerry in '04 // Vets Against Kerry)
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To: killjoy

On Friday the 13th after I had boarded up for Charley I was in and out of the house every few minutes drinking coffee and watching the neighborhood. Somehow one of my buddies snuck over and in red spray paint wrote "VOTE KERRY" and "DEMOCRATS ROCK" on a couple of my windows.

It would have been much funnier if I had thought to get him first.


135 posted on 09/03/2004 7:41:38 AM PDT by drjack
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To: JHENN22499

I've had that same experience; when Fran was coming to NC, I warned my niece and her sorority sisters to get gas, cash, candles, water, batteries, etc. They were sophomores and "knew better," you know?

Well, after Fran tore Chapel Hill apartment, they were true believers; when Floyd came, I opened my door to 25 sorority girls and their "stuff" for 3 days..........argh!


136 posted on 09/03/2004 7:43:47 AM PDT by Howlin (I'm mad as Zell)
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To: Howlin

apartment=apart, of course.


137 posted on 09/03/2004 7:44:18 AM PDT by Howlin (I'm mad as Zell)
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To: VeniVidiVici

I'm sure you're exhausted. I have a gut feeling this storm will regroup/strengthen just like Andrew did. Get some rest NOW while you can.


138 posted on 09/03/2004 7:44:55 AM PDT by NotJustAnotherPrettyFace (Michael <a href = "http://www.michaelmoore.com/" title="Miserable Failure">"Miserable Failure"</a>)
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To: Howlin
I've had that same experience; when Fran was coming to NC, I warned my niece and her sorority sisters to get gas, cash, candles, water, batteries, etc.

Delta Nu? ;-)


139 posted on 09/03/2004 7:47:01 AM PDT by NotJustAnotherPrettyFace (Michael <a href = "http://www.michaelmoore.com/" title="Miserable Failure">"Miserable Failure"</a>)
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To: drjack
On Friday the 13th after I had boarded up for Charley I was in and out of the house every few minutes drinking coffee and watching the neighborhood. Somehow one of my buddies snuck over and in red spray paint wrote "VOTE KERRY" and "DEMOCRATS ROCK" on a couple of my windows.

ROTFLMAO!!!!!! One of my friends who will be here during the storm is a die hard democrat. She has all the anti-Bush stickers on her car. I think I am going to have some fun at her place. Thanks for the idea. :)

140 posted on 09/03/2004 7:47:41 AM PDT by killjoy (Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain)
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