Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert

N/A | 2004-09-03 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)






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First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):


ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.


GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.


GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!


EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.


UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.


NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.


The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.

Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.



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EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:


HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Hurricane Basics

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/




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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website



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[Right_Handed_Writer]

"Mickey and Goofy better batten down the hatches

I didn't know that Kerry and Edwards were campaigning in Florida this weekend?

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

We'll pray for your grandfather's safety. Anywhere in the Melbourne area is likely to get clobbered with high winds and rain. Let's just hope this one doesn't spin off any killer tornadoes.

I'm keeping an eye on this one for my internet-challenged parents who live in Lake Wales (eastern Polk County) which was hit very hard with Charley.

[sarasota]

I haven't seen any press about the Bahamas on the weather channel. Any news from there?

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Hurricane Frances Tears Into Bahamas - Residents Prepare for Direct Hit

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Glad to hear your brother and family and important docs got the heck out of Dodge!

[redhead]

My youngest sister lives in Lake Placid (it's on the map, just south of Sebring). Please help me pray for her and all the old people who live around her...

[JHENN22499]

my niece evacuated from Boca late yesterday. She arrived in Ft Meyers. She is from PA and this her 1st experience. She is so scared. Having family in Carolina Beach for last 15 years helps to relax her. I'm hoping that her friends are not newbies. 21 yrs old is not alot of experience. oops, she just called. her friends in Ft. Meyers have only experienced Charlie, and they went to Boca. I have 4 scared kids on my hands. Let's see I told them to bring everything inside..fill all sinks,tubs and washer w/water. Told them how to flush the toilet. Fill any and all clean containers with drinking water...go to the bathroom or interior hall if winds scare them, and don't go near windows. Do not go outside and be careful of downed power lines.

Did I forget anything?

[Dog Gone]

Frances is a strong Cat 3 storm. That's easily a major hurricane and nobody here is a psychic who can guarantee us that it won't intensify before landfall.

A Category 1 hurricane can ruin your day. A Category 3 can ruin your house. Complacency is not your friend during hurricane season.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

sheesh - Trying to manage a 75 year old stubborn mom from here in CT is...well...lets just say that the Maalox bottle is now half empty.

I can relate. Just yesterday my sister (FReeper known as Lady Composer) was trying to convince our parents to leave for Illinois since they already hold plane tickets for travel a week from now. But no..... Dad is stubborn and they both move very slowly. They'll ride it out. We told them to get into an inner hall if necessary. Their windows are not boarded up.

[spectre]

We're still packing....:~(

sw

[Milwaukee_Guy]

"I haven't seen any press about the Bahamas on the weather channel. Any news from there?"

From somewhere in the Bahamas on 14.325MHZ, station KF4TRG running now on generator with the following weather observation,

Winds NE steady at 64KT gusting to over 80 estimated due to damage to WX instrumentation. Pressure 998.3 MB falling 1.6MB over the last hour.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Who'd thunk it, Frances is falling apart.

Temporary. Just like Andrew.

[Just mythoughts]

"A Category 1 hurricane can ruin your day. A Category 3 can ruin your house. Complacency is not your friend during hurricane season."

Do you get the feeling that you are banging your head against the wall?

I do not live in Florida, however, that storm is as large as the whole state, it like HELLO!!!!

[Mo1]

FYI ... believe or not .. But FNC has Geraldo on right now .. he is in a plane flying over the storm

[PJ-Comix]

Doesn't the slowdown in the forward motion of Frances give more time for it to take a more northward motion?

[Gabz]

I'm listening to him also.

[Mo1]

Did he say the eye wall was reforming?

[Gabz]

I'm not sure....it was a bit difficult understanding all of what he was saying with a 6 year old gibbering between me and the TV in the next room.

[Dog Gone]

Oh brother.

[VeniVidiVici]

Doesn't the slowdown in the forward motion of Frances give more time for it to take a more northward motion?

Depends on that High to the north.