ARG POLL: Kerry and Bush Remain Tied (Bush 47% Kerry 47% Nader 3%) Bush JA @ 45%

americanresearchgroup ^ | 09/02/04 | americanresearchgroup

[KQQL]

John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied in the race for president both among Americans registered to vote and among likely voters according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush among registered voters, 48% say they would vote for Kerry and 46% say they would vote for Bush. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 46% of registered voters say they would vote for Kerry, 45% say they would vote for Bush, and 3% say they would vote for Nader.

Among registered voters considered likely to vote in November, Bush is at 48% and Kerry is at 47% in a two-way ballot. With Nader in the race, Bush and Kerry are tied at 47% each among likely voters and Nader is at 3%.

September 1 Bush Kerry Undecided

All voters 46% 48% 6% Likely voters 48% 47% 5%

All voters: Republicans (35%) 86% 8% 6% Democrats (37%) 9% 84% 7% Independents (28%) 44% 49% 7%

[POA2]

Don't know, I don't have the internals of those polls just the raw numbers.. They are clearly a Democratic Push Poll.

I agree with you on the history of ARG - But how would they go about saucing this poll....without adjusting the weightings? - Usually it is done in the weightings process - Yet the weightings on this poll look fine ???

[Josh in PA]

It may be in the way they asked the question.

I can't explain why they are historically way off.

[POA2]

It may be in the way they asked the question.

I would agree with that...for say approval rating...and for like ratings on issues....but not for the horse race question -

There really isn't two ways to ask that question -

But anyway...regardless I agree ARG is probably off - I just wish I could figure out a logical reason for why -

[Josh in PA]

occam's Razor?


They are intentionally fudging the numbers