Posted on 09/01/2004 3:15:34 AM PDT by Patton@Bastogne
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Free Republic Community:
Welcome to Wednesday's Hurricane Frances news-twist !
It looks like a Melbourne Landfall after all, once again (to Section9's worst fears) churning it's way North along the Coast Highway ...
Excellent Hurricane Frances Websites:
HURRICANE ALLEY
U.S. Weather Observers
Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.
General George S. Patton Jr. Website
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Agree with you Gabz. I'm worried for anyone in this one's path. Everytime I see these coming,I just go back to what it was like during and after Andrew. I didn't have a family then and it was still some of the worst of times. I can't imagine having a home, family, and all and having one of these bearing down on you. God bless you all out there. I have a number of relatives and freinds all over florida--Coral Springs, Vero Beach, Zephyrhills, and St. Cloud. I'm really worried for them.
1. Saw some mention of the relative size of this hurricane compared to Charley - someone said 5 times as big - in circumference. Question: Is there any site that compares sizes of hurricanes to each other - with overlays - have not seen one yet. Also - the size of this one is so huge, it seems to me it will affect in some way all of the Southeast - no matter where it comes in. Is that correct/ way off/ what?
2. Obviously if Frances decides to just fake towards FL and then head up to SC - well, here we go again! Question: What day /time would any of our experts see it hitting SC and/or central or Eastern NC if that scenario occurs?
3. Question 3: I didn't think many hurricanes come in at the Jacksonville/S. Georgia entry area - they turn to the North more often, don't they? If so, it seems all the forecasts that had Frances going in at SouthEast Georgia or Jacksonville area were low in likelihood just based on hurricane history. Do forecasters go by history at all or just by current weather systems, factors?
No matter where these bad boys (or girls) come in they always (lately) seem to end up in North Carolina sooner or later!
So we in NC may as well get ready for that reality - again!
The BAMM models are doing crazy things this evening. In fact, all of the models have been fluctuating a lot during the past 12 hours. We have models that have been fairly reliable in the past putting Frances into the Gulf after crossing Florida, and we have models predicting the first strike in the Carolinas.
This seems odd to me because it was looking as if we were getting a consensus opinion on a central Florida strike earlier today.
There's a darn good reason that the NHC posts a cone along with the projected official track, and that's because they can't be sure where in that cone it will go. The skinny little line is just the centerpoint of that cone.
As long as your house is within the cone, you had better be prepared for Frances on your doorstep this weekend.
Oh: Joe B. called the Charley turn into Ft. Myers exactly right, and has called Bonnie, Gaston, Alex all dead on as well. I have to respect his opinion, and part of it is that the very geography of Florida makes it very difficult to bring a storm in from the Southeast. Floyd missed. Andrew came in from due East. Erin (1995) made it, but came in to Vero Beach after a jog to make it more of a ESE-angled hit.
For a Florida hit on the angle shown, a recurving hurricane basically has to run out of room to turn!
One plot can be a wobble. 3 in a row, maybe that would indicate a turn.
Number 3: Floyd.
Q2: GA/SC Strike - Monday morning. Monday PM if further NE.
Q3: See my #504 - Geographically, it's just really a hard place to hit. There was a post about old models using Hatteras as a "default" strike point since it stuck out there and kinda begs to be hit! Joe Bastardi is very diligent about scouring past history of setup patterns, storm tracks, and doing "pattern matching" things to aid his forecasts. You bet!
My prayers are with you and yours. I've got family and friends in Sarasota and Bradenton.
Who knows where this thing is going to go......
Oh come on....why not? ;o) I live in TX when our hurricane is coming our way...I will ask you to stick that neck of yours way out ;o)
LOL! Well, give it a week or two -- you've got 2 brewing possibilities for TX: (1) Watch the western Gulf of Mexico over the next week. (2) Watch the wave just ejected in a low latitude from Africa. How's that for sticking it?
Dear Sonjay- can you tell me what they are saying in Punta Gorda. My mom is there and we've been begging her to leave now...her home is tarped and badly damaged from Charley and I feel helpless so many miles away. Any news there in Punta Gorda? I just returned too from helping in her community and the devastation is something I will never forget. We are praying for you. Thank you.
This would not surprise me one little bit...in fact I expect to have a hit this yr. We're way overdue here. God I hope not....but 21yrs since a hurricane....hmmmm!!!!
Soooo....you're advising against shark teeth collecting at Ponte Vedra this weekend I gather.
It all still depends on which model you want to look at.
When I go through the past storm tracks there - so many just follow this curve of the lower S.East USA coast - nudging up beside Florida and then heading up to SC or NC to come on land. (Yes, Floyd did that too).
If Joe B is saying - SC or NC landfall - getting my bags packed. He rarely if ever misses his calls!
Thanks for the replies......
watch the upcoming reports - the slower the hurricane moves, the more northward it will hit. if it slows, lts more likely to jog to a northerly track - whether that be north florida, georgia, or south carolina. if it maintains speed, its momentum will have a more westerly component - which bring it in further south into florida (west palm, etc).
I sure understand the ETA solution -- look at what they do to the ridge! Dang - they have not only not weakening, but extending all the way through Arkansas!
Ivan -> Galveston?
I'm look at the GOES Floater IR loop. Does it look to anybody like the ridge is shoring itself up all the way to the coast of Florida? Or am I reading too much into this?
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