Kerry campaign in crisis

Real Clear Politics ^

[Nascardude]

Tuesday, August 31 2004 KERRY IS IN CRISIS: Roger L. Simon is right, a shake up by the Kerry camp at this point in the race is tantamount to an admission of crisis. Mickey Kaus is right, too: Joe Lockhart ain't gonna come riding in and save the day.

Meanwhile Charlie Cook decided it was time to walk back his rather bold prediction from three weeks ago that this was Kerry's race to lose: "It really is pretty amazing how fast the conventional wisdom can change." You don't say? Maybe it shouldn't have been conventional wisdom in the first place.

Honestly, I still don't understand how or why Cook and Sabato decided to go out on a limb like that before the GOP convention. It was like two respected Vegas bookies deciding to change the odds of a game at halftime because one team was up a point or two. It just never made sense.

For the record, I'm not convinced the movement to Bush is all the work of the Swiftees, though they've certain played a part. But even if it is, it's not like the damage they've inflicted on Kerry should come as a big surprise to anyone who follows politics closely.

The Swiftees held a press conference way back in early May - even if it did get close to zero attention from the mainstream press. Here's what I wrote about the Swiftees at the time:

As far as politically damaging attacks go, this (the Swift Boat Veterans) should rank right up there among the most potent ones imaginable. It would certainly be a political disaster of thermonuclear proportions if all of George W. Bush's former commanding officers in the National Guard condemned his fitness to be CIC.

But I suspect this story won't get very much play (except in the blogosphere) and whatever attention it does generate in the mainstream press that might potentially influence swing voters in battleground states will be seriously diluted by Kerry's massive $25 million ad buy that began yesterday touting his service in Vietnam.

In other words, the Veterans' press conference and letter may not have much of a short-term impact on Kerry's numbers.

But it will be a different story after Labor Day when the Bush camp puts clips from the letter and footage from the press conference into an ad of their own and spends enough money in those same battleground states to make it hurt.

How will Kerry be able to effectively rebut this letter when the time comes? Very good question.

As it turns out, the answer to the question is "not effectively at all," which is why the Kerry campaign seems to be teetering on the verge of a meltdown. - T. Bevan 6:00 pm Link | Email | Send to a Friend

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[christie]

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Visit my John F. Kerry Timeline.
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[sonofatpatcher2]

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Donate to Swift Boat Vets for the Truth HERE.

[Samwise]

Click me

[Uncle Miltie]

I think we need to exhibit compassion for our Democrat brethren in their time of difficulty, and help them come home to the safety and love of the Republican Party and George W. Bush.

[DoughtyOne]

That is preposterous. It slams the Swift Boat Vets as if they would do something to help Hillary. These guys are operating on a shoe-string budget and can't get respect even from conservatives. Lordy, Rush, buy a clue.

[Uncle Miltie]

"I believe it is finally starting to sink into the Democrats that they just nominated their own Bob Dole; without the likability and war record."

Bob Dole was likeable? Geez, I missed that.

[Just mythoughts]

"That is preposterous. It slams the Swift Boat Vets as if they would do something to help Hillary. These guys are operating on a shoe-string budget and can't get respect even from conservatives. Lordy, Rush, buy a clue."


He did not say it was DIRECT, he said it several times, why I do not know, unless he knows something.

[Bonaparte]

Teddy must be gritting his teeth these days. He's groomed that boy and pulled strings for him for 35 years.

[randog]

Upcoming best-seller:

"Business Genius, Political Idiot" -- an autobiography by George Soros

[Remember_Salamis]

THE LETTER

The following is an open letter to Democratic National Committee Members. Please click the link at the bottom to sign the letter and become a part of this effort to elect Gov. Howard Dean, MD as the next Chairperson of the DNC!

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DNC Member:

The past year has seen a dramatic reversal of apathy in our democratic system and thankfully, within our own Party. We harbor the hope and expectation that with electoral participation on the rise, you will play a worthy role in bringing our Democratic voice to the table; that you will allow us our due influence in the future direction of our Party. In short, that you will follow the sentiments of your fellow Democrats when selecting the next Democratic National Committee Chair.

Howard Dean’s campaign for President of the United States revitalized our Democratic Party by articulating a positive message for the future. In presenting key differences between Democrats and Republicans, and resolutely defending traditional Democratic ideals like healthcare for all, Governor Dean has inspired hundreds of thousands of Americans to become civically and politically involved, and he has broadly restored faith in our political process.

As the number of contributors to his campaign surpassed a quarter of a million, it became clear not only that Governor Dean was first and most ardently committed to a truly Democratic message, but that among Democrats he alone has the ability to create and maintain a loyal and broad base of support.

Howard Dean, Presidential candidate, has already restored a meaningful Democratic message, brought the Democratic Party new purpose, and energized a fresh cavalry of enthusiastic volunteers from coast to coast. The Democratic Party, indeed the United States, needs Governor Dean to turn his commitment to improving the Party, the country, and our politics to a new endeavor: Chair of the Democratic National Committee.

A number of factors make Governor Dean the best choice for this post:

1. As Governor of Vermont, Dean was the Chair of the Democratic Governors’ Association. His contacts from around the country will allow him to gather support, build consensus, and expand Democratic Party membership nationwide.

2. Governor Dean has a genuine record of achieving Democratic goals: providing healthcare to nearly every Vermonter, successfully reforming Vermont’s education system outside the flawed No Child Left Behind model, and raising the minimum wage twice during his tenure. Dean’s experience and pragmatic style would bring our Party a proven fundraiser, an accomplished champion of our values, and someone with the courage to overcome the divisive and hateful rhetoric of our Republican counterparts.

3. Governor Dean’s political career, begun with a local grassroots effort to build a bicycle path, continued to five terms as Vermont’s Governor, and now in his current position as trusted spokesman for hundreds of thousands of Democrats suggests valuable tactical experience. He has achieved results at the most local level with the basest grassroots organization, he has achieved results as Executive of a state working with legislators, adjudicators, lobbyists, and constituents. And he has achieved the trust and belief of breathtaking numbers of nationwide Democratic Party members.

DNC Member, our Party needs a Chair with just such experience.


Someone who can unite our grassroots base and bring it together with those more established organizations that have historically stood with Democratic Party.

Someone who is committed to bringing our Party’s message and appeal to Americans who have been voting and donating to the Republican Party against their own interests.

Someone who knows politics from the highest level of responsibility to the lowest level of involvement.

Someone who knows how to inspire, how to lead, how to accomplish, and how to stand up to the Republican vitriol machine.
Current Chair Terry McAuliffe has done a worthy job: raising money in an era of campaign finance reform, modernizing the Party organization, and maintaining a civilized discourse in the face of ever more hateful Republican rhetoric.

When his term expires in November, it is time for a new Chair to ensure our Party enters the heart of the 21st century with the active member participation, the momentum, the message, and the money to capitalize on the upcoming Democratic victory for generations to come. Howard Dean is that man.

Sincerely,

Sachin Agarwal and Christopher Jackson
Dean for DNC Co-Chairs

[CWOJackson]

Once the retired Dole started doing the talk show circuit the public found out what his friends had know for years; he has a great sense of humor.

Dole's problem is he was from the old school and thought that the Senate and Senators should be solemn and dignified which came across as boring and stuffed shirt.

[saxxa]

sounds like we might get a ' hat trick ' out of this deal !!

[DoughtyOne]

I think Rush is way off base here. Some of those Swift Boat Vets have been pushing their story line since Kerry first soiled himself in the 70s. These aren't the revelations of recent field work for the most part. Kerry pissed these people off years ago, and they haven't forgotten it. They remember serving with him. They remember his actions. They remember his remarks that cast them as war criminals. They remember him traveling to Vietnam. This has been on a slow boil for thirty years.

These guys have been asking for and receiving donations for folks like you and I. I believe they received an infusion from a well to do REpbulican in Texas, but that's about it as far as large funds are concerned.

[Congressman Billybob]

Real Clear Politics is one of the more bipartisan and non-biased websites out there. Likewise, Charlie Cook is one of the capable, straight-shooting analysts.

I was surprised to see Charlie write a while back that this was "Kerry;s race to lose." I am not surprised that he has now backed off of that. Real seems to have a better touch on the pulse of America.

As the motto on the "X Files" says, "The truth is out there." Well, the truth is in here, too, on FreeRepublic. Click below.

Congressman Billybob

Latest column, "The Radio Talk Show Amendment, Or: Why John Kerry is Now Toast"

If you haven't already joined the anti-CFR effort, please click here.

[Just mythoughts]

Rush did not imply that these guys were aware of the "clinton" $$$$$, he may well have been stirring the pot for JFKerry paranoid benefit. Considering Hillry took over on the Sunday shows and totally ignored JFKErry.

[Remember_Salamis]

Democratic Senate Leadership will collapse if Daschle is defeated; there is no clear successor and there will be a fight for the Minoroty position. The same thing happened in the House, when Pelosi and Harold Ford jr., a blue dog Democrat whom I respect, battled for the heart of the Democratic leadership in the house. Who are they going to pick? Daschle clone Byron Dorgan (ND)? Moderate Bayh (IN)? Liberal Mikulski (MD)? Moderate Reid (NV)? Socailist Boxer (CA)? Moderate Biden (DE)? Liberal Durbin (IL)? Moderate Lieberman? National Socialist Clinton (NY)?

[Remember_Salamis]

"I was surprised to see Charlie write a while back that this was "Kerry;s race to lose." I am not surprised that he has now backed off of that. Real seems to have a better touch on the pulse of America."

-- Sabato has said that too, and Sabato leans right. But Sabato has been adjusting his stance lately.

[Congressman Billybob]

Actually, when you meet Bob Dole in a small group he is very funny, and an attractive guy. But he just didn't come across that way in large groups, or on TV.

John / Billybob

[crushelits]