Posted on 08/31/2004 4:27:57 PM PDT by Cableguy
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll, conducted 8/24-26 for the NRSC, surveyed 500 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.4% (NRSC release, 8/31). Tested: Sen. Tom Daschle (D) and '02 GOP nominee John Thune.
General Election Matchup All Fav/Unfav Thune 50% 62%/29% Daschle 48 61 /35 DK/Other 2
Pollster Glen Bolger: "In the nearly two months since he has gone on the air, Thune has closed the gap, even in the midst of a challenging national political climate. John Thune's message of independence and standing up for [SD] values has reminded voters why they like him, and has translated into a strong showing on the ballot test" (release, 8/31).
There were a number of people on FR who thought that Thune should have challenged the results. A majority realized that (a) you never win the seat back when voter fraud is challenged and (b) Thune would have a better chance against a Daschle whose liberal positions are well-known during a presidential election year.
Daschle probably wants another hug from W.
At 61-35, Daschle's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio
is too high. If the final Daschle vs. Thune poll
shows the same 50-48 margin, Daschle plus vote fraud
will win. The old saying, "if you strike a king, you
must kill him" is relevant here. We need a sea change
in how South Dakotans, who have been duped by a pro-
Daschle media, view the man.
Maybe it can happen, but it will take one hell of
a campaign. And I don't believe even a national
Bush landslide can win this one for Thune. He'll
need to do this himself.
Perhaps this ad in which Daschle sucks up to Bush
will backfire. Or maybe there are enough dimwits
in South Dakota that it will work.
Yes, but I think this is different this time, because President Bush can come to SD and campaign for himself this time, rather than being seen as a sitting President trying to "interfere" in a Senate race. Also, Thune was hurt by not successfully getting drought relief for SD from the President, so people wondered then just how much pull Thune would have with Bush as a Senator. Daschle also then had the mantle of Majority Leader, and played it to the hilt, and he can't do that this time. South Dakotans can be reminded that by electing Johnson, instead of having one senator in each camp, they had two in the minority camp...
There are no such hot-button issues right now in SD, and Daschle has made himself a huge national target that they should be able to realize that he will start to draw unfriendly fire onto the state. Seems very similar to the McGovern race of 1980 -- and McGovern was a more formidable national figure than Daschle (he had gotten the presidential nomination for crying out loud), at that time, no-one could imagine either house of Congress being controlled by anyone but Democrats, and although I personally liked Abdnor a lot (good West River guy, and treated me and my family royally when we visited him in Washington when he was a Representative), he wasn't a very polished candidate compared to Thune. All in all, I think things are different than they were 2 years ago.
Anyway, it makes a big difference if a presidential candidate pays the voters of a state the respect of coming and asking them to vote for him. I think it would resonate. Of course, Bush doesn't need the extra votes, but John Thune's name is going to be right below his on the ballot, and I do think it would spill over...
I still think that Bush on the ground in SD would do far more good than harm. But then, I would imagine that the Thune and Bush people know the calculus on this far better than I do -- I'll be interested to see what they do.
Yup, and as I've said elsewhere, everyone was so sick of that campaign and all the ads that a recount would have made tons of people furious with Thune for dragging it out even longer. Some of my cousins who are still in SD are big Thune contributors, and I was surprised to hear them say that they were glad there wasn't a recount, for that very reason.
BTTT Dump Daschle!
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