Posted on 08/30/2004 4:08:43 PM PDT by ambrose
Democratic strategists say Bush has made 'unmistakable' gains in August
By Will Lester ASSOCIATED PRESS
2:52 p.m. August 30, 2004
NEW YORK - President Bush has gained ground on Democrat John Kerry in the month of August because of "relatively small but unmistakable" shifts in the political environment, Democratic strategists said in a memo released Monday.
The polling memo by Democracy Corps, a group led by pollster Stan Greenberg and strategist James Carville, said the subtle gains by Bush have knotted the race again after Kerry had a slight advantage after the Democratic National Convention in late July.
"There is no doubt that the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads (attacking Kerry's Vietnam service) have had an impact on the race," according to the Democracy Corps memo. Those attacks combined with the Summer Olympics have combined to "shift the focus away from Iraq and worrisome economic trends."
The Democracy Corps analysis averaged numerous national and state polls to come up with its assessment that Bush is doing slightly better against Kerry, a judgment supported more by internal measures such as issues and candidate qualities.
An ABC News-Washington Post poll released Monday supported the Democracy Corps findings. Bush and Kerry were tied at 48 percent apiece while independent Ralph Nader was backed by 1 percent among likely voters. They are also tied among registered voters, a larger group.
Kerry has lost ground on several measures in the ABC-Post poll such as voter enthusiasm for his candidacy, his personal popularity and his ratings on such issues as education, the economy, Iraq and terrorism. Bush has gained trust on these issues during that time.
The ABC News-Post poll was taken Aug. 26-29 of 945 registered voters has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, slightly higher for likely voters.
You: It has to be really bad for the Kerry campaign when the Dems actually come out and admit that things have taken a turn for the worse.
You are more right than you may realize. Susan Estrich is already out on the hustings and talking head circut pushing the line that if Bush wins it will be because of Swift Boat smears and his election will be "illegitimate."
I'll readily admit your description is much better, but Seesh, I'm eating!
Nice breakdown of EV's. Thanks for posting this.
Psst! I think your might have overlooked Montana. Another 3 in GW's column? LOL
"First in war, first in peace, and first in the hearts of his their countrymen,"
I like those type of errors hehe...
Amen. Thank God somebody has some 'nads. The RNC sent me a letter the other day asking me if I'd give a donation. I sent it back with a note saying: "No. I'm giving my money to the Swift Boat Vets for their ads because they have guts; something the RNC knows nothing about." And I mailed it to them in their post-paid envelope.
i doubt it will be a 10 piont bounce so dont get your hopes up
i am hoping for a good sustainable 4 -5 point bounce and that he can get a little further ahead in teh battlgrounds
last i read he was 1 pt ahead in PA and about hte same in Wisconson. If Kerry has to commit resources there it is still a victory since he needs to carry ALL of Gores states plus one more moderately sized one of Bush's to win
"I like those type of errors hehe..."
Me too! (:
Now if I can just get my checkbook errors to come out in my favor once in awhile. Never happen! LOL
Florida will easily vote for Bush. Colorado will go for him too.
Ohio is a tossup but will probably go for GWB by about 2 points.
Your're right. Some people say that the Clintons want Skerry to lose so the way will be clear in 2008 for Hillary to make her run. I could well be wrong on this, but I don't think Hillary is electable nationwide.
uh Bush will win OH, CO and WV ... and a few in the current Kerry column, imho.
Wow! So the summer games had something to do with Mr. Kerry's low numbers....
MEDIA IS SAYING THIS SO THEY SAY BUSH GOT NO BUMP FROM CONVENTION. MEDIA HAS KNOWN THIS FOR A LONG TIME. BUSH HAS BEEN AHEAD FOR LONG TIME.
Headline 11/03/2004:
Democrats Nationwide Sh$t Drawers as Election Returns Come In, Bush Wins Four More Years
I do think W will win Ohio, but I worry Ohio might be this year's Florida...very close.
Susan Ostrish was at her most vile,nasty self tonight on FOX. I mean pure dripping with malice towards Ruddy and his speech. she must really be extra hormonal from yesterdays noogies by Brit Hume. EGADS she is yucccccky.
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