Posted on 08/30/2004 4:08:43 PM PDT by ambrose
Democratic strategists say Bush has made 'unmistakable' gains in August
By Will Lester ASSOCIATED PRESS
2:52 p.m. August 30, 2004
NEW YORK - President Bush has gained ground on Democrat John Kerry in the month of August because of "relatively small but unmistakable" shifts in the political environment, Democratic strategists said in a memo released Monday.
The polling memo by Democracy Corps, a group led by pollster Stan Greenberg and strategist James Carville, said the subtle gains by Bush have knotted the race again after Kerry had a slight advantage after the Democratic National Convention in late July.
"There is no doubt that the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads (attacking Kerry's Vietnam service) have had an impact on the race," according to the Democracy Corps memo. Those attacks combined with the Summer Olympics have combined to "shift the focus away from Iraq and worrisome economic trends."
The Democracy Corps analysis averaged numerous national and state polls to come up with its assessment that Bush is doing slightly better against Kerry, a judgment supported more by internal measures such as issues and candidate qualities.
An ABC News-Washington Post poll released Monday supported the Democracy Corps findings. Bush and Kerry were tied at 48 percent apiece while independent Ralph Nader was backed by 1 percent among likely voters. They are also tied among registered voters, a larger group.
Kerry has lost ground on several measures in the ABC-Post poll such as voter enthusiasm for his candidacy, his personal popularity and his ratings on such issues as education, the economy, Iraq and terrorism. Bush has gained trust on these issues during that time.
The ABC News-Post poll was taken Aug. 26-29 of 945 registered voters has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, slightly higher for likely voters.
THANK YOU "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth"
Lets not underestimate the impact the daily freak show outside the convention in NYC is having on average people. I have to believe that people outside the 2 coasts, who aren't used to seeing these creatures must be getting really turned off by looking at the faces of Kerry and the DNC supporters.
John Effin' has surged into uncontested command of second place in the presidential race. It will be difficult to dislodge him from this position now.
Amen to that.
It has to be really bad for the Kerry campaign when the Dems actually come out and admit that things have taken a turn for the worse.
Skerry didnt really get much of a bounce at that four day infomercial known as the Democrap Convention.
The Swiftboats apparently done more damage to Skerry than I would have expected, allowing President Bush to close the gap. If the president comes out of the Republican Convention
with a 10pt lead or more. It's all over for Skerry.
Or Hillary popping open her finest champagne.
TOAST!
No, no, it's the infamous pre-convention bounce, doncha know?
We owe those Vets ANOTHER Big THANK YOU FOR DEFENDING US FROM ENEMIES OF THE US!!!
if the President comes out of the convention with a 10 pt lead, then that will be a miracle....there isnt that much wiggle room in the polls of most states or nationally....
I read DU, there isn't enough there for a BANG. It's a quiet pop at best!
| States | Electoral Votes | Bush | Kerry | Toss up |
| Alabama | 9 | 9 | ||
| Alaska | 3 | 3 | ||
| Arizona | 10 | 10 | ||
| Arkansas | 6 | 6 | ||
| California | 55 | 55 | ||
| Colorado | 9 | 9 | ||
| Connecticut | 7 | 7 | ||
| Delaware | 3 | 3 | ||
| District of Columbia | 3 | 3 | ||
| Florida | 27 | 27 | ||
| Georgia | 15 | 15 | ||
| Hawaii | 4 | 4 | ||
| Idaho | 4 | 4 | ||
| Illinois | 21 | 21 | ||
| Indiana | 11 | 11 | ||
| Iowa | 7 | 7 | ||
| Kansas | 6 | 6 | ||
| Kentucky | 8 | 8 | ||
| Louisiana | 9 | 9 | ||
| Maine | 4 | 4 | ||
| Maryland | 10 | 10 | ||
| Massachusetts | 12 | 12 | ||
| Michigan | 17 | 17 | ||
| Minnesota | 10 | 10 | ||
| Mississippi | 6 | 6 | ||
| Missouri | 11 | 11 | ||
| Montana | 3 | |||
| Nebraska | 5 | 5 | ||
| Nevada | 5 | 5 | ||
| New Hampshire | 4 | 4 | ||
| New Jersey | 15 | 15 | ||
| New Mexico | 5 | 5 | ||
| New York | 31 | 31 | ||
| North Carolina | 15 | 15 | ||
| North Dakota | 3 | 3 | ||
| Ohio | 20 | 20 | ||
| Oklahoma | 7 | 7 | ||
| Oregon | 7 | 7 | ||
| Pennsylvania | 21 | 21 | ||
| Rhode Island | 4 | 4 | ||
| South Carolina | 8 | 8 | ||
| South Dakota | 3 | 3 | ||
| Tennessee | 11 | 11 | ||
| Texas | 34 | 34 | ||
| Utah | 5 | 5 | ||
| Vermont | 3 | 3 | ||
| Virginia | 13 | 13 | ||
| Washington | 11 | 11 | ||
| West Virginia | 5 | 5 | ||
| Wisconsin | 10 | 10 | ||
| Wyoming | 3 | 3 | ||
| Totals | 538 | 254 | 252 | 29 |
It's the Olympics fault!
A Thursday thru Sunday poll, which historically are skewed toward democrats. And Kerry still lost ground!
I wouldnt put it past the liberals to blame the Olympics on Bush....
It's the same sound made by squeezing a big zit.
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