Posted on 08/26/2004 4:47:34 AM PDT by Conservative_boy_in_Bangkok
Just Peeked in on Daly's "Daly Thoughts" On his chart he lists Kerry at 215 and Bush at 178. However He has Bush up in Ohio (by three points) and can't bring himself to move it to Bush's colum (It's still in Kerry's!), and he has MO, as a "toss up" and Bush leads there as well. The actual poll is (when added in using real math) Bush 209, Kerry 205, and there are twice as many Strong Bush states to Strong Kerry states. He is having a hard time to make it look good for Kerry.
http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm
Trade Sports is showing Bush at 53.2 and Kerry 43.7 so Bush is looking stronger there.
http://www.tradesports.com
If I typed the links in inncorectly I appologize
How come Daily Thoughts has Bush with a 3 point lead in Ohio, but in the slight Kerry column?
Just keep doing what you're doing. You have been about two weeks ahead of every trend that the clueless press eventually gets around to reporting.
ECB should be on everyone's must read list.
I have no idea.
:-)
One, you could go to the site, click the Ohio link (or Ohio on the state map) and read the reasons, read the about page, read the FAQ, and learn how I do things, or you could hope that I happen by to explain my decision.
Here I am!
The most recent Ohio poll was by Strategic Vision. Now I like Strategic Vision very much. They are a firm normally associated with Republican candidates, and usually partisan company polls need to be taken with a grain of salt, but so far this year their polls have been showing pretty much what everyone else has been showing. Still, it is generally a bad idea to base decisions on where a state is going solely on the results from a company associated with one of the parties. The safer approach is to keep their polls in mind, but wait for another poll by another company to confirm the results.
If you take out the Strategic Vision polling, then the last four Ohio polls, by the University of Cincinnati, Gallup, American Research Group, and Rasmussen all show Kerry up very slightly. Hence, the designation of the state as having a "slight advantage for Kerry".
When another poll comes out verifying that Bush has moved ahead in Ohio, it will be slid over to Bush's side. No worries. Thanks!
The guy from Daly Thoughts is a fellow freeper. He's got a very specific methodology that he has to follow, which is why there are states that will probably go Bush that are still in the toss-up or Kerry bin. He usually won't move a state for an outlying poll if it looks like it might be an anomoly. He's definately not trying to spin this for Kerry.
That makes sense. Thanks
thanks, i just read his expanation. That makes sense.
Hope so!! Out of curiousity, do you get liberal fan mail?
Nah-- they mostly post their 'fan mail' as comments on my blog.
Thanks for the laugh.
Yikes, why the dive in the last day? The raw data doesn't reflect what the graph says for today. Bush at .542 ave after close 9/01/04 COB.
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