HEADLINE: Bush Overtakes Kerry in Latest L.A. Times Poll

LA TIMES ^ | 8/25/04 | Ronald Brownstein

[Blood of Tyrants]

WASHINGTON -- President Bush heads into next week's Republican national convention with voters moving slightly in his direction since July amid signs that John F. Kerry has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam, a Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

For the first time this year in a Times survey, Bush led Kerry in the presidential race, drawing 49 percent among registered voters, compared to 46 percent for the Democrat. In a Times Poll just before the Democratic convention last month, Kerry held a 2 percentage point advantage over Bush.

That small shift from July was within the poll's margin of error. But it fit with other findings in the Times Poll showing the electorate edging toward Bush over the past month on a broad range of measures, from support for his handling of Iraq to confidence in his leadership and honesty.

Although a solid majority of Americans say they believe Kerry served honorably in Vietnam, the poll showed that the fierce attacks on the senator from a group of Vietnam veterans criticizing both his performance in combat and anti-war protests at home have left some marks: Kerry suffered small but consistent erosion compared to July on questions relating to his Vietnam experience, his honesty and his fitness to serve as commander in chief.

[NorCoGOP]

How do you like that!

Kerry gets a post-convention flop, not a bounce...

Bush, on the other hand, is getting a PRE-convention bounce...

Let the momentum continue!

[Hollywoodghost]

Beware of Greeks with gift horses! The Democrats are getting ready for some sort of attack--ANY mis-step by Bush or the Republican Party will be seized upon! One comment, one gesture, will be singled out, blown-up and made to look bad. The Democrats are desperate now and a cornered rat will fight tooth and nail. Now isn't the time to pat one's self on the back. The long March is not over and it will not be until November 3.

[jerri]

Come on now, we're not all "nut jobs".

[Future Useless Eater]

terrific... that is EXACTLY the type of analysis I'd like
to see done to every new major poll that comes out!
Please add me to your ping list for these types of things.

[KQQL]

I'm not sure of the purpose of your post, but I would point out that I don't think your analysis is very predictive

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OH REALLY

Hmmmmm

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The number that Dowd watches closely is the president’s job approval rating. “The incumbent president usually gets a vote right at his approval rating,” Dowd says. “If we are at a 51-52 approval (on Election Day), we will win by 1 or 2 points. If the president is at a 49 percent approval, he will get 50 percent of the vote, especially with a third-party candidate in the race.”

http://www.rogersimon.com/archive/005127.html

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Torie thanks as always for sticking up for me :)

[Presto]

Poor guy. I didn’t realize Kerry was so thin skinned. That must explain how he gamed the system and gave himself 3 purple hearts from scratches and bruises.
Kerry never spent even a single day in the hospital for any of his purple heart “injuries”. What’s wrong with that picture?
Now Kerry is paying for those bogus purple hearts in the polls. Can I get an AMEN!!

(Donate MORE to the Swifties: www.swiftvets.com)

[paulsy]

"But then again, after you add 4% or more RAT election fraud, it comes out about right."

Yes, we call this the Margin of Fraud.

[Blood of Tyrants]

Amen! Brother!

[Nov3]

A Chernobyl in progress?

One hopes so but it is an eternity till the election.

[ableChair]

The number that Dowd watches closely is the president’s job approval rating. “The incumbent president usually gets a vote right at his approval rating,” Dowd says. “If we are at a 51-52 approval (on Election Day), we will win by 1 or 2 points. If the president is at a 49 percent approval, he will get 50 percent of the vote, especially with a third-party candidate in the race.”

This is patently false. Again, look at the statistics on presidential elections going back for YEARS. Approval ratings in July are no where near the actual popular vote in November. You analysis is sophistry and snake oil. Again, get a copy of "Vital Statistics on American Politics". The numbers are there in black and white.

[ableChair]

BTW, looking at the source you supplied, it's evident that you are confusing two types of variable. As I stated in my previous post, approval ratings out in July are predictive for win or loss, but not for the vote count. This is what you are mixing up.

[BushisTheMan]

I'm highlighing (bolding) special biased words in this article:

WASHINGTON -- President Bush heads into next week's Republican national convention with voters moving slightly in his direction since July amid signs that John F. Kerry has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam, a Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

For the first time this year in a Times survey, Bush led Kerry in the presidential race, drawing 49 percent among registered voters, compared to 46 percent for the Democrat. In a Times Poll just before the Democratic convention last month, Kerry held a 2 percentage point advantage over Bush.

That small shift from July was within the poll's margin of error. But it fit with other findings in the Times Poll showing the electorate edging toward Bush over the past month on a broad range of measures, from support for his handling of Iraq to confidence in his leadership and honesty.

Although a solid majority of Americans say they believe Kerry served honorably in Vietnam, the poll showed that the fierce attacks on the senator from a group of Vietnam veterans criticizing both his performance in combat and anti-war protests at home have left some marks: Kerry suffered small but consistent erosion compared to July on questions relating to his Vietnam experience, his honesty and his fitness to serve as commander in chief.

= = = = = = =

And thus continues the LA Slimes continued bias against Bush and for Kerry the Liberal slimeball veteran-basher.

[BushisTheMan]

I would concur with your analysis about young people thinking "being gay is okay" My daughter thinks so too and is a big Bush supporter.

Why, becuase they've been told by their teachers throughout their education years that is is "mean" to bash gays. No one has taught them that our Christian ethics are being eroded thanks to the Democrats and the gay anarchists.

Gays want to be presumed to be "normal". They are not.

[ableChair]

Dowd says. “If we are at a 51-52 approval (on Election Day), we will win by 1 or 2 points. If the president is at a 49 percent approval, he will get 50 percent of the vote, especially with a third-party candidate in the race.”

Yet another observation. Notice the clause:

"(on Election Day)"

Dowd is talking about approval ratings on election day, not over two months out. In other words, your analysis is predictive out to about a day or two. That's all. As I suspected, it was you and not Dowd that was confused.

In the final analysis, no one knows who's gonna get elected in November. The only purpose in looking at polls today, beyond those things we know to be predictive of November outcomes, is to understand trends and campaign effects.

[KQQL]

I really don't give a DAMN what you think..

You don't need to read my post...

[deadeye2]

I guess Torie thought I was condescending towards you. That wasn't my intent. I don't know you or how old you are or how long you've followed politics.There's nothing on your page. My reasoning is simple. In all the years I've watched polling on races of national interest,I have never seen the MSM error in favor of the conservative side. But I often see gross errors in favor of the liberal side. I think the reasons for this are twofold. First, it tends to demoralize the opposition.
Second, it can have the effect of picking up 1 or 2 points from people who don't care who wins, they just want to vote for the winner(the bandwagon effect). But, as elections draw near these polls move somewhat towards the conservative but still close. This is to make the liberals think that they had the race won but they are letting it slip away. It also takes some of the egg off their faces when the final results come in.

[KQQL]

No/Problem.

I get bashed here 24/7.

UPDATE for 08/26/04

My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
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Right now W's average approval ratings is 49.8% from last 10 polls (Dem/GOP don't count). The max W will get over his average approval rating is 0.5%.

So: If the election were held today, the approx election results would be.

W/O Nader
Bush 50.3%
Kerry 48.7%
Others 1.0%

Bush 50.3%
Kerry 47.7%
Nader 1.2%
Others 0.8%

MOE+/-1%

[ableChair]

I really don't give a DAMN what you think..

You don't need to read my post...

Wow, that's such a brilliant response. What's wrong, been caught at it? You're right, I don't have to read your post and you don't have to read mine. So, I guess you concede all my points; namely, that you are predicting a hypothetical election to occur tomorrow that will never happen. Whatever floats your boat but don't expect sophistry and distortions to go unchallenged on this forum.

[KQQL]

whatever..

Have a great life

[KQQL]

MY BAD , I took Gallup JA # as 54% when it's Oonyy 49%

UPDATE W/correct numbers for 08/26/04

My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
------
Right now W's average approval ratings is 49.3% from last 10 polls (Dem/GOP don't count). The max W will get over his average approval rating is 0.5%.

So: If the election were held today, the approx election results would be.

W/O Nader
Bush 49.8%
Kerry 49.2%
Others 1.0%

Bush 49.8%
Kerry 48.2%
Nader 1.2%
Others 0.8%

MOE+/-1%