Well, Edwards does bring one thing to the ticket — a face that scares little kids!
Posted on 08/25/2004 7:14:55 PM PDT by RWR8189
Political Wire got an advance look at the new Los Angeles Times poll showing President Bush "moving slightly" ahead of Sen. John Kerry "for the first time this year." Bush had the support of 49% of registered voters, compared to 46% for Kerry.
The newspaper's analysis indicates Kerry "has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam."
The "small shift" from last month's poll "is within the poll's margin of error. But it fits with other findings in the Times Poll showing the electorate edging toward Bush over the past month on a broad range of measures, from support for his handling of Iraq to confidence in his leadership and honesty."
Independent voters split evenly, but Bush's "tentative new advantage" seems to be "his greater success at onsolidating his base. While just 3% of voters who call themselves Republicans say they will vote for Kerry, Bush is drawing 15% just over one-seventh of all Democrats, and fully one-fifth 20% of Democrats who consider themselves moderate or conservative, the poll found."
After adjusting for media bias, Bush is already the prez.
Not exactly.
If their published poll shows Bush at 49% and Kerry at 46%
then their actual findings were probably more like 52-43
in W's favor. I don't trust those punks at the LAT. Remem-
ber their little Davis recall stunt involving Arnold?
"He's showing his ass in this episode......"
By Gawd, I believe you are correct! I can see the scar on
Senator Rice-Phony's butt!
On Oct 7 Arnold beat Cruz by 16 points.
The President will be unstoppable. His numbers will improve after the convention and he will lead the campaign until the election. He will win big.
"The newspaper's analysis indicates Kerry "has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam."
No bias here. It is the attack. It cannot be the fact that he has threatened to sue everyting and everyone that doesn't agree with him.
I agree. The story's got a short time frame, and I don't know why they didn't have more books ready.
Here are the LA Times August 21st-24th, 2004 published poll internal numbers for political affiliation for the three-way race between Bush, Kerry and Nader. These LA Times poll data are in a table format for easy reading.
This national three-way race poll which had 1,352 Registered voters, now shows Bush in the lead by 3% with Bush 47%, Kerry 44%, Nader 3%. The MoE is ±3.0% for this LA Times poll question number six.
Source: LA Times Presidential poll - August 21-24, 2004 PDF file, released August 25th, 2004: Question #6, page 9 of 25.
Here below is the distribution of the 1,352 registered voters necessary to recreate the numbers show in the table directly above. Remember that the numbers below must be rounded to NO decimal places to match the above LA Times published data.
So the partisan affiliation weightings that were used by the LA Times are indicated in the table below. Remember, because of LA Times rounding of their poll numbers, the below breakdowns might have a ±1.2% variance. That being said, it appears that this latest LA Times three-way race presidential preference poll has 9.1% more Democrats than Republicans in its sample population. A 2%-3% advantage for Democrats over Republicans might be a more realistic set of demographic splits.
So what would the LA Times poll look like with a more reasonable national sample of say 35.1%(R), 37.1%(D), 27.8%(I)? Look below and you would see that Bush would now have a 7.8% lead, which would be clearly outside the 'Margin of Error' of the LA Times poll. Kerry has been sinking swiftly...
Hope this helps...
dvwjr
Agreed, new poll for Cali shows Kerry lead in Cali is only 3 points... which I don't care what methodology used is, if you only have a 3 point lead in the liberal bastion of California 70 days before election when you were up by 8-12 2 weeks before... its not going well for you.
Kerry's sinking.... the times they are a changin.
Kerry has been sinking swiftly...
Haha!
(Lack of) Courage just makes 'em up as he sees fit. They don't even add up to the correct total most of the time.
Hillary has some of the highest negatives of anyone on the political scene.
She really is someone that you either love or hate.
The only thing she has going for her is that Oprah loves her, and would really puff her to all the brain-washed Oprah-ites.
One question: It used to be true, I believe, that Republicans were more likely to vote than Democrats.
Is this true ?
True...pork chop is out, then. But it's gonna be hard for them to hang an Indian Taco around his neck. Maybe they should give the Breck Girl cotton-candy hair?
It should be a FUN election night over there when they get BASHED upside the head with reality!
That's GREAT info, and presented in a way that most people will be able to follow the logic. You might want to re-post this as a separate thread, since there is still so much interest in the LAT poll results. Most people know that it's probably flawed, but some think skewed towards dems, some towards republicans.
Great work!
Amazing!
Well, Edwards does bring one thing to the ticket — a face that scares little kids!
Thanks, this does make it easier to understand
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